Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T22:45:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

95
0x95cd…8efe
other · 155 markets active 2h ago
6.5score
+$8,352 +29%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$9,879 · open −$1,526
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fading edge
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$7,374
Realized+$9,879
Unrealized−$1,526
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses47 / 72
Est. fees paid−$41
Open positions36
Markets (closed)119 / 155
History coverage79d
Avg bet$186
Trades / day2.4
Drawdown37%
Kalshi-fit68%
Chart Positions 36 History 119 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$186
7 days+$356
14 days+$526
30 days+$391
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 11¢ $600 $819 +$219 (+36%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Yes 24¢ 24¢ $600 $612 +$12 (+2%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 17¢ $500 $527 +$27 (+5%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 16¢ $500 $502 +$2 (+0%)
Spain snap election called by June 30, 2026? No 94¢ 96¢ $400 $410 +$10 (+3%)
Ukraine recognizes Russian sovereignty over its territory by December 31, 2026? Yes 14¢ 10¢ $600 $401 −$199 (-33%)
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Yes 44¢ 12¢ $1,500 $396 −$1,104 (-74%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $450 $391 −$59 (-13%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 8¢ $400 $352 −$48 (-12%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 8¢ $300 $271 −$29 (-10%)
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Yes 18¢ 22¢ $200 $239 +$39 (+19%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 5¢ $200 $198 −$2 (-1%)
Russia x Ukraine Peace Parlay Yes 18¢ 18¢ $200 $193 −$7 (-4%)
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Yes 23¢ 26¢ $150 $172 +$22 (+15%)
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 19? Yes 45¢ 67¢ $100 $149 +$49 (+49%)
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? Yes 31¢ 45¢ $100 $145 +$45 (+45%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 3¢ 5¢ $100 $139 +$39 (+39%)
Will South Africa advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 62¢ 83¢ $100 $134 +$34 (+34%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 3¢ $100 $110 +$10 (+10%)
Will Tunisia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 63¢ 64¢ $100 $102 +$2 (+2%)
Will Colombia reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? No 95¢ 94¢ $100 $98 −$2 (-2%)
Will Juanma Moreno be the next President of Andalusia following the regional election? Yes 99¢ 97¢ $100 $97 −$3 (-3%)
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? Yes 53¢ 52¢ $100 $97 −$3 (-3%)
Will Cape Verde advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 74¢ 70¢ $100 $96 −$4 (-4%)
Will Haiti advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 91¢ 86¢ $100 $95 −$5 (-5%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $102 +$103 +101%
Trump declassifies new UFO files by June 15? Jun 12 $102 +$83 +82%
Spread: Switzerland (-2.5) Jun 11 $41 −$40 -98%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 11 $101 −$100 -99%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 07 $400 +$304 +76%
Will Saudi Arabia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA Worl Jun 07 $101 +$6 +6%
Will Partido Socialista Obrero Español de Andalucía (PSOE-A) win 27-29 Jun 06 $84 −$67 -79%
Will VOX (VOX) win 13-15 seats in the 2026 Andalusia Regional Election Jun 06 $10 +$31 +300%
Will VOX (VOX) win 22 or more seats in the 2026 Andalusia Regional Ele Jun 06 $200 +$5 +2%
Will VOX (VOX) win 19-21 seats in the 2026 Andalusia Regional Election Jun 06 $10 +$3 +29%
Will Partido Popular (PP) win 50-52 seats in the 2026 Andalusia Region Jun 06 $205 +$10 +5%
Will Partido Popular (PP) win fewer than 50 seats in the 2026 Andalusi Jun 06 $100 +$2 +2%
Will Zinedine Zidane be appointed as manager of Real Madrid? Jun 03 $50 −$50 -99%
Will Enrique Riquelme win the 2026 Real Madrid presidential election? Jun 03 $72 −$70 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C or higher on June 3? Jun 02 $8 −$8 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 3? Jun 02 $10 −$10 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on June 3? Jun 02 $52 −$50 -96%
Roland Garros ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Joao Fonseca Jun 02 $101 −$100 -99%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $400 +$409 +102%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? Jun 01 $100 +$6 +6%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $200 +$12 +6%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? Jun 01 $300 +$33 +11%
Will Rafael Jodar win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 31 $103 +$13 +13%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 30 $100 +$300 +300%
Spread: Paris Saint-Germain FC (-1.5) May 30 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $214 −$210 -98%
Will Morocco win on 2026-05-26? May 26 $100 +$10 +10%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 27? May 26 $60 +$201 +335%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through June 15? May 26 $400 +$862 +216%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through June 7? May 26 $100 +$170 +170%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 31? May 26 $100 +$223 +223%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through June 30? May 26 $100 +$89 +89%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 25 $430 −$430 -100%
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goal scorer in the 2025–26 La Liga seaso May 25 $100 +$3 +3%
Olympiacos B.C. vs. Real Madrid May 24 $303 +$121 +40%
Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by May 31? May 23 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 23 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Getafe CF win on 2026-05-23? May 23 $102 +$100 +99%
Will Aston Villa finish in the top 4 of the EPL 2025–26 standings? May 23 $102 −$100 -98%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24? May 23 $50 +$29 +57%
Valencia vs. Real Madrid May 22 $203 +$177 +88%
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? May 22 $102 −$68 -66%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $115 in May? May 20 $103 −$100 -97%
Iran closes its airspace by May 24? May 18 $100 −$100 -100%
Iran closes its airspace by May 21? May 18 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Real Madrid win the 2025-26 Euroleague? May 17 $102 −$100 -98%
Andalusia Election: PP Absolute Majority? May 17 $273 −$272 -100%
Will China announce a Boeing aircraft purchase by May 22? May 17 $102 +$85 +83%
Will Romania win Eurovision 2026? May 17 $100 +$2 +2%
Will Finland win Eurovision 2026? May 17 $61 +$54 +88%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
world 39% +$10,576
other 31% +$1,379
politics 16% −$2,504
sports 8% +$247
finance 4% −$1,204
crypto 1% −$73
weather 0% −$68
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? BUY Yes 53¢ $100 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 24¢ $600 1h
Spread: Switzerland (-2.5) BUY Switzerland 32¢ $41 2d
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) BUY Switzerland 58¢ $101 2d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 49¢ $102 2d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 19? BUY Yes 45¢ $100 2d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? BUY Yes 31¢ $100 2d
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? BUY Yes 26¢ $100 6d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 94¢ $704 6d
Will Saudi Arabia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA Worl SELL No 63¢ $107 6d
Will Bitcoin reach $72,500 in June? BUY Yes 35¢ $105 10d
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 in June? BUY Yes 55¢ $103 10d
Will Karen Bass win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? BUY Yes 73¢ $101 10d
Will Zinedine Zidane be appointed as manager of Real Madrid? BUY Yes 1¢ $10 10d
Will Enrique Riquelme win the 2026 Real Madrid presidential election? BUY Yes 7¢ $72 10d
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C or higher on June 3? BUY Yes 1¢ $8 11d
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 3? BUY Yes 3¢ $10 11d
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on June 3? BUY Yes 14¢ $52 11d
Roland Garros ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Joao Fonseca BUY Joao Fonseca 68¢ $101 11d
Will Rafael Jodar win the 2026 Men's French Open? SELL Yes 3¢ $116 13d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? BUY No 95¢ $100 14d
Spread: Paris Saint-Germain FC (-1.5) BUY Paris Saint-Germain FC 20¢ $102 14d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? BUY Yes 41¢ $214 14d
Trump declassifies new UFO files by June 15? BUY Yes 54¢ $102 14d
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $200 17d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? BUY No 74¢ $200 17d
Will Morocco win on 2026-05-26? BUY Yes 91¢ $100 18d
Will Tunisia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup BUY No 63¢ $101 19d
Will Saudi Arabia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA Worl BUY No 58¢ $101 19d
Will South Africa advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA Worl BUY No 62¢ $101 19d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +28%
net ROI/market (all)-6.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +10.8% +0.3% 67% 50% +28.7%
≤30d 66 -9.3% -17.9% 50% 32% -5.1%
≤90d 119 +3.3% -6.5% 39% 28% +19.9%
all 119 +3.3% -6.5% 39% 28% +19.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover2.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.5% 28% +19.9%
10% -15.5% 24% +8.4%
15% -23.6% 24% -2.1%
20% -31.1% 23% -11.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $7,373.72 · official $7,373.25 (match) · 288 history records