Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T07:45:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
95 0x95cd…e3f6 world 76 markets active 1h ago coverage 336d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$12 (-0%) realized −$12 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate25%18W / 54L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$72per market
Trades / day0.9pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit79%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$1
14 days+$1
30 days+$7
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 28% +$8
world 25% +$3
other 19% −$1
sports 16% $0
economics 7% −$3
crypto 4% −$20
tech 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-10.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +4.1% -5.8% 33% 33% -8.1%
≤30d 15 -5.8% -14.8% 33% 7% -8.5%
≤90d 62 -0.8% -10.3% 29% 5% -9.8%
all 72 -0.9% -10.3% 25% 4% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.3% 4% -9.8%
10% -18.9% 1% -18.4%
15% -26.7% 1% -26.3%
20% -33.9% 1% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 33% · top 2 61% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
78% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.99 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.64 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

336d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized−$12
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)25%
Wins / losses18 / 54
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions4
Markets (closed)72 / 76
History coverage336d
Avg bet$72
Trades / day0.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit79%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 72 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? No 97¢ 99¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+3%)
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 25¢ 24¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-1%)
Will Alberta join the US? Yes 4¢ 3¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-20%)
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Yes 5¢ 1¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-72%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 18 $76 $0 +0%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 17 $11 +$1 +13%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? Jun 11 $3 $0 -1%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 09 $25 −$5 -19%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 09 $97 +$3 +3%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 09 $2 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 08 $77 $0 -1%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Jun 07 $8 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 06 $74 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 06 $21 +$1 +6%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 05 $67 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? May 24 $63 +$6 +10%
Iran leadership change by May 31? May 23 $70 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? May 21 $4 $0 -3%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? May 20 $3 $0 +0%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? May 19 $63 $0 -0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? May 19 $71 −$1 -1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? May 18 $27 −$1 -3%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 18 $66 −$2 -2%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 15 $66 $0 +0%
Greece x Turkey military engagement by June 30? May 14 $7 +$1 +9%
Will the Denver Nuggets win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 27 $54 $0 +0%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 25 $98 $0 +0%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 25 $5 $0 +4%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 25 $73 $0 +0%
Will Judy Shelton be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 24 $147 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Apr 24 $413 $0 -0%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 24 $133 $0 -0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? Apr 23 $66 $0 -0%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 23 $66 $0 -0%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 21 $6 $0 -7%
Starmer out by April 30, 2026? Apr 20 $140 $0 +0%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 19 $299 $0 +0%
Will the Houston Rockets win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 19 $3 $0 -7%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 18 $3 $0 +0%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 17 $66 $0 +0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 16 $138 $0 +0%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 16 $184 $0 +0%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 15 $37 $0 +0%
Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 12 $14 $0 +0%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 11 $73 $0 +0%
Will James Talarico win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 11 $284 $0 +0%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 11 $67 $0 -0%
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nom Apr 10 $146 $0 +0%
Will Stephen A. Smith win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 09 $22 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 09 $213 $0 +0%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 09 $66 $0 +0%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 08 $73 $0 +0%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 07 $36 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Clippers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 02 $34 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 91¢ $76 1h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 91¢ $76 2h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 5¢ $5 30h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 5¢ $4 30h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 5¢ $3 30h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 5¢ $1 30h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 4¢ $11 30h
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 6d
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 7d
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? BUY Yes 1¢ $2 7d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 25¢ $20 8d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 31¢ $13 8d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 31¢ $13 8d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 46¢ $29 8d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 46¢ $29 8d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? SELL Yes 42¢ $2 9d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? BUY Yes 42¢ $2 9d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 46¢ $72 9d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 44¢ $69 9d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $3 9d
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? SELL Yes 21¢ $8 11d
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? BUY Yes 21¢ $8 11d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 60¢ $59 11d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 60¢ $15 11d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 60¢ $74 11d
Iran leadership change by June 30? SELL Yes 4¢ $3 11d
Iran leadership change by June 30? BUY Yes 4¢ $3 12d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $67 12d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY No 98¢ $67 12d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $74 12d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.80 · official $0.00 (match) · 323 history records