Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T04:53:48+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
95 0x95cb…8c51 other 163 markets active 2h ago coverage 161d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$1,396 (+1%) realized +$1,396 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR14%break-even
Win rate20%32W / 130L
Whale WR5%big bets
Drawdown43%max
Avg bet$1,374per market
Trades / day2.9pace
Fees−$13est.
Kalshi-fit63%portable
Net worth$235now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$7
7 days−$21
14 days+$51
30 days+$73
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 50% −$307
politics 27% −$82
sports 11% +$1,835
economics 4% −$8
world 3% −$92
culture 3% −$6
crypto 1% +$4
tech 1% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +14%
net ROI/market (all)-6.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 -0.1% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 46 +6.4% -3.7% 11% 9% -9.4%
≤90d 100 +3.7% -6.2% 8% 6% -8.9%
all 162 +2.9% -6.9% 20% 14% -9.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.9% 14% -9.0%
10% -15.8% 13% -17.7%
15% -23.9% 12% -25.6%
20% -31.4% 8% -32.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 41% · top 2 56% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
31% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 5% (≥$1,808) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +2% → late +4% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$72 vs −$7 · ×9.6 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.4 per $1 lost it wins $2.4
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

161d coverage
Net worth$235
Realized+$1,396
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)20%
Wins / losses32 / 130
Whale WR (big bets)5%
Est. fees paid−$13
Open positions1
Markets (closed)162 / 163
History coverage161d
Avg bet$1,374
Trades / day2.9
Drawdown43%
Kalshi-fit63%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 162 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin reach $92,500 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $235 $235 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 20 $1,902 −$3 -0%
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 18 $3,141 −$3 -0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 18 $443 −$1 -0%
Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2026 World Series? Jun 17 $1,196 −$2 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 17 $1,193 −$2 -0%
Will Brian Kemp win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 15 $998 −$2 -0%
Will 7 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 15 $967 −$1 -0%
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $3,283 −$4 -0%
Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 13 $902 −$2 -0%
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 13 $1,060 −$2 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 11 $1,298 −$2 -0%
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 10 $1,002 −$1 -0%
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 10 $911 −$1 -0%
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 09 $7,299 −$7 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 08 $7,704 −$8 -0%
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2026 World Series? Jun 08 $885 −$1 -0%
Will Yoaz Hendel be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 08 $801 −$1 -0%
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 07 $3,283 −$5 -0%
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 06 $899 −$1 -0%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 06 $53 +$100 +188%
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 04 $1,265 −$2 -0%
Spread: Spurs (-2.5) Jun 04 $59 +$79 +134%
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 03 $2,733 −$3 -0%
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 03 $2,528 −$3 -0%
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 02 $1,304 −$2 -0%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Jun 02 $84 −$84 -100%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 02 $2,157 −$2 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in May? Jun 02 $562 +$3 +1%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 01 $693 −$1 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 01 $3,691 −$4 -0%
Will Wuthering Heights be the top grossing movie of 2026? May 31 $709 −$1 -0%
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 28 $3,757 −$6 -0%
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 27 $719 −$1 -0%
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 27 $718 −$1 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 26 $1,148 −$2 -0%
Will Scream 7 be the top grossing movie of 2026? May 25 $2,900 −$4 -0%
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 25 $2,356 −$3 -0%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 25 $2,649 −$3 -0%
Will RCD Espanyol de Barcelona win on 2026-05-23? May 25 $85 +$68 +79%
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 23 $1,022 −$1 -0%
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 23 $2,072 −$3 -0%
Cleveland Guardians vs. Philadelphia Phillies May 23 $56 −$56 -100%
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 22 $2,826 −$4 -0%
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 22 $2,152 −$3 -0%
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 21 $1,269 −$2 -0%
Spread: Thunder (-6.5) May 21 $64 +$62 +97%
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? May 21 $2,688 −$4 -0%
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 20 $1,013 −$1 -0%
Will XRP reach $2.80 in May? May 19 $731 −$1 -0%
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? May 18 $1,094 −$2 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $694 1h
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $696 3h
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $648 46h
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $649 47h
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $443 2d
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $443 2d
Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $1,194 2d
Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $1,196 2d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $1,191 3d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $1,193 3d
Will Brian Kemp win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $996 4d
Will Brian Kemp win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $998 4d
Will 7 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $966 4d
Will 7 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $967 5d
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $1,211 5d
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $1,212 5d
Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $900 6d
Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $902 6d
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $1,058 6d
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $1,060 7d
Will Bitcoin reach $92,500 in June? BUY No 100¢ $235 8d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,296 9d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,298 9d
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $1,001 9d
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $1,002 9d
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $909 9d
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $911 10d
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $841 10d
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $842 11d
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $1,153 11d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $235.26 · official $235.26 (match) · 569 history records