Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T21:08:40+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
95 0x95c8…3469 other 948 markets active 1h ago coverage 147d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$2,267 (-6%) realized −$2,537 · open +$270
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR48%break-even
Win rate49%464W / 483L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$43per market
Trades / day9.6pace
Fees−$82est.
Kalshi-fit44%portable
Net worth$387now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$249
7 days+$234
14 days+$234
30 days+$148
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 55% −$464
sports 43% −$1,231
world 1% −$385
crypto 0% −$150
politics 0% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)-8.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 15 +38.8% +25.5% 40% 40% +33.4%
≤30d 99 +7.6% -2.6% 49% 49% -0.6%
≤90d 464 +0.1% -9.4% 48% 48% -15.2%
all 947 +0.8% -8.8% 49% 48% -15.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.6 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.8% 48% -15.0%
10% -17.5% 47% -23.1%
15% -25.5% 43% -30.5%
20% -32.8% 37% -37.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$37 vs −$41 · ×0.91 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.87 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

147d coverage
Net worth$387
Realized−$2,537
Unrealized+$270
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses464 / 483
Est. fees paid−$82
Open positions1
Markets (closed)947 / 948
History coverage147d
Avg bet$43
Trades / day9.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit44%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 947 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: France (-1.5) France 29¢ 96¢ $117 $387 +$270 (+231%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 455 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $62 +$107 +172%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $51 +$84 +165%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $28 +$131 +473%
Spread: Spain (-3.5) Jun 15 $43 −$25 -59%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $30 +$74 +250%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $52 −$52 -100%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $20 −$20 -98%
Spread: Germany (-4.5) Jun 14 $28 +$53 +188%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $25 −$24 -98%
Spread: Switzerland (-3.5) Jun 13 $12 −$12 -98%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 13 $24 −$12 -48%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $19 −$19 -99%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 12 $31 −$30 -98%
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) Jun 11 $21 +$29 +140%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $40 −$39 -98%
Dota 2: Team Liquid vs Aurora (BO3) - BLAST Slam Last Chance Qualifier May 30 $36 −$35 -98%
Dota 2: Aurora vs Tundra Esports (BO3) - BLAST Slam Last Chance Qualif May 30 $36 −$20 -56%
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs OG (BO3) - BLAST Slam Last Chance Qualifier May 30 $15 −$15 -98%
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs GLYPH (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 30 $10 +$3 +26%
Dota 2: Aurora vs Xtreme Gaming (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 30 $10 +$6 +57%
Dota 2: Tundra Esports vs LGD Gaming (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 30 $10 +$10 +97%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs LGD Gaming (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 30 $10 +$17 +165%
Dota 2: Team Liquid vs PARIVISION (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 29 $10 +$7 +67%
Dota 2: Team Liquid vs OG (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 29 $10 −$10 -98%
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs OG (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 29 $10 −$10 -98%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs GLYPH (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 29 $10 +$3 +27%
Dota 2: Tundra Esports vs BetBoom Team (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 29 $10 +$7 +65%
Dota 2: Tundra Esports vs GLYPH (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 28 $10 −$10 -98%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 28 $10 −$10 -99%
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs PARIVISION (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 28 $10 −$10 -99%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Team Liquid (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 28 $10 −$10 -99%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Tundra Esports (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 28 $10 +$6 +55%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs Aurora (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 28 $10 +$14 +134%
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs OG (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 28 $10 +$18 +172%
Dota 2: Xtreme Gaming vs GLYPH (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 28 $10 −$10 -98%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs BetBoom Team (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 28 $10 −$10 -99%
Dota 2: Aurora vs PARIVISION (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 28 $10 −$10 -98%
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs PARIVISION (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 28 $20 +$65 +320%
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Team Liquid (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 28 $10 −$10 -99%
Dota 2: Xtreme Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 28 $10 +$6 +55%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs Tundra Esports (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 28 $10 +$6 +55%
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Xtreme Gaming (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 28 $20 −$20 -99%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Team Spirit (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 28 $10 +$7 +65%
Dota 2: Aurora vs Team Liquid (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 28 $10 +$9 +89%
Dota 2: GLYPH vs PARIVISION (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 27 $10 −$10 -98%
Dota 2: OG vs BetBoom Team (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 27 $10 −$10 -98%
Dota 2: Xtreme Gaming vs Tundra Esports (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 27 $10 +$7 +67%
Dota 2: Aurora vs Team Spirit (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 27 $10 +$10 +101%
Will Rayo Vallecano de Madrid win on 2026-05-27? May 27 $51 −$50 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: France (-1.5) BUY France 21¢ $49 1h
Spread: France (-1.5) BUY France 40¢ $70 2h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 36¢ $62 23h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 41¢ $51 25h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? SELL No 100¢ $159 25h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 37¢ $51 26h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 17¢ $28 28h
Spread: Spain (-3.5) SELL Spain 15¢ $18 28h
Spread: Spain (-3.5) BUY Spain 35¢ $43 29h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 50¢ $20 44h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 28¢ $30 46h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 25¢ $52 2d
Spread: Germany (-4.5) BUY Germany 34¢ $28 2d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 45¢ $25 2d
Spread: Switzerland (-3.5) BUY Switzerland 27¢ $12 3d
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) SELL Qatar 22¢ $12 3d
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) BUY Qatar 41¢ $24 3d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 54¢ $19 4d
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? BUY Yes 37¢ $31 4d
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) BUY Mexico 41¢ $21 5d
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-30? BUY Yes 32¢ $40 17d
Dota 2: Team Liquid vs Aurora (BO3) - BLAST Slam Last Chance Qualifier BUY Team Liquid 41¢ $36 17d
Dota 2: Aurora vs Tundra Esports (BO3) - BLAST Slam Last Chance Qualif BUY Tundra Esports 42¢ $20 17d
Dota 2: Aurora vs Tundra Esports (BO3) - BLAST Slam Last Chance Qualif SELL Aurora 53¢ $12 17d
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs OG (BO3) - BLAST Slam Last Chance Qualifier BUY OG 20¢ $15 17d
Dota 2: Aurora vs Tundra Esports (BO3) - BLAST Slam Last Chance Qualif BUY Aurora 66¢ $15 17d
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs GLYPH (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage BUY BetBoom Team 79¢ $10 18d
Dota 2: Team Liquid vs PARIVISION (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage SELL PARIVISION 100¢ $17 18d
Dota 2: Team Liquid vs OG (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage BUY OG 29¢ $10 18d
Dota 2: Tundra Esports vs LGD Gaming (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage BUY LGD Gaming 50¢ $10 18d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $387.03 · official $387.03 (match) · 1688 history records