Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T12:10:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
95 0x95c7…4000 other 56 markets active 2h ago coverage 707d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$136 (+2%) realized +$173 · open −$37
Gross ROI / mkt -27% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -34% what you keep after slip
Net edge-34%after slip
Net WR15%break-even
Win rate57%31W / 23L
Whale WR100%big bets
Drawdown18%max
Avg bet$154per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit61%portable
Net worth$1,511now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$26
7 days+$55
14 days+$68
30 days+$68
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 95% +$59
crypto 4% +$29
sports 1% +$14
politics 0% +$1
economics 0% −$3
world 0% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +15%
net ROI/market (all)-33.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 +1.1% -8.5% 100% 0% -8.6%
≤30d 15 +1.2% -8.4% 100% 0% -8.6%
≤90d 19 -20.1% -27.7% 79% 0% -8.8%
all 54 -26.7% -33.7% 57% 15% -7.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -33.7% 15% -7.8%
10% -40.1% 13% -16.6%
15% -45.8% 9% -24.7%
20% -51.2% 9% -32.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 24% · top 2 41% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
74% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -27% · $-wt +2% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 100% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -44% → late -10% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$2 · ×2.99 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×4.03 per $1 lost it wins $4.03
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

707d coverage
Net worth$1,511
Realized+$173
Unrealized−$37
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses31 / 23
Whale WR (big bets)100%
Open positions2
Markets (closed)54 / 56
History coverage707d
Avg bet$154
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown18%
Kalshi-fit61%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 54 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Iqraam Rayners: 3+ goals No 99¢ 97¢ $1,545 $1,508 −$37 (-2%)
Opensea FDV above $500M one day after launch? Yes 40¢ 42¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+5%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Gonçalo Guedes: 3+ goals Jun 17 $1,546 +$15 +1%
Thelo Aasgaard: 3+ goals Jun 17 $546 +$5 +1%
Bamba Dieng: 3+ goals Jun 16 $546 +$5 +1%
Mikel Merino: 3+ goals Jun 15 $545 +$6 +1%
Exact Score: Haiti 3 - 2 Scotland? Jun 14 $546 +$6 +1%
Exact Score: Qatar 3 - 1 Switzerland? Jun 13 $545 +$5 +1%
Exact Score: Korea Republic 0 - 3 Czechia? Jun 12 $495 +$8 +2%
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 3 South Africa? Jun 11 $406 +$4 +1%
Exact Score: England 1 - 3 Costa Rica? Jun 11 $188 +$2 +1%
Exact Score: Málaga CF 0 - 3 UD Las Palmas? Jun 10 $307 +$4 +1%
Exact Score: Armenia 2 - 3 Moldova? Jun 09 $491 +$5 +1%
Exact Score: France 3 - 3 Northern Ireland? Jun 08 $193 +$2 +1%
Exact Score: Ecuador 3 - 2 Guatemala? Jun 08 $5 $0 +1%
Exact Score: Morocco 3 - 2 Norway? Jun 08 $10 $0 +2%
XRP Up or Down - June 7, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 08 $6 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 1, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET Apr 06 $2 −$2 -100%
US recession in 2025? Apr 06 $2 −$2 -100%
Counter-Strike: FaZe vs Passion UA (BO3) Apr 06 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Seattle Sounders FC win the FIFA Club World Cup? Apr 06 $1 −$1 -100%
Will To Lam be elected General Secretary of the Vietnamese Communist P Jan 26 $301 +$30 +10%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $92,000 and $94,000 on January 20 Jan 21 $290 +$43 +15%
Will Bitcoin reach $92,000 December 29-January 4? Jan 20 $5 +$4 +64%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs TheMongolz (BO3) Dec 14 $18 +$5 +28%
Counter-Strike: Passion UA vs Team Falcons (BO1) Dec 07 $13 +$3 +27%
Counter-Strike: Passion UA vs M80 (BO3) Dec 04 $13 +$16 +122%
US national Bitcoin reserve in 2025? Jun 18 $5 −$2 -46%
Will Krzysztof Stanowski be the next President of Poland? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Manchester City wins the Premier League? May 22 $2 −$2 -100%
Trump ends Ukraine war in first 90 days? May 22 $1 −$1 -100%
U.S. recession before May 2025? May 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 by March 31? Apr 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon tweet 600-649 times Feb 14-21? Mar 03 $2 +$3 +133%
Will Biden finish his term? Feb 20 $0 $0 +10%
Will Trump appeal his hush money conviction? Feb 20 $1 +$2 +150%
Will Circle IPO in 2024? Jan 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum all time high in 2024? Jan 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Ethereum hit $10k in 2024? Jan 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin above $97,000 on December 27? Jan 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Bitcoin hit $100k by Sunday? Jan 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Will 'Inside Out 2' gross most in 2024? Jan 16 $2 $0 +3%
Will Trump win Wyoming by the largest margin? Dec 22 $2 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump be inaugurated? Dec 16 $12 $0 +2%
OR-05 election: Bynum (D) vs. Chavez-DeRemer (R) Dec 03 $1 $0 +1%
Will Trump win 55% of voters without a college degree? Dec 03 $2 $0 +1%
CA-47 election: Min (D) vs. Baugh (R) Dec 03 $4 $0 +5%
Will Trump launch a coin before the election? Nov 06 $1 −$1 -100%
Nasrallah remains Hezbollah leader through Oct 31? Oct 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Kamala flips Trump on Silver's Bulletin by Sept 6? Sep 28 $1 −$1 -100%
Microphones muted during ABC debate? Sep 28 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Biden's 538 approval reach 40% by August 9? Sep 05 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Iqraam Rayners: 3+ goals BUY No 99¢ $1,546 1h
Gonçalo Guedes: 3+ goals BUY No 99¢ $1,546 23h
Thelo Aasgaard: 3+ goals BUY No 99¢ $546 38h
Bamba Dieng: 3+ goals BUY No 99¢ $546 2d
Mikel Merino: 3+ goals BUY No 99¢ $545 2d
Exact Score: Haiti 3 - 2 Scotland? BUY No 99¢ $546 4d
Exact Score: Qatar 3 - 1 Switzerland? BUY No 99¢ $545 5d
Exact Score: Korea Republic 0 - 3 Czechia? BUY No 98¢ $495 6d
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 3 South Africa? BUY No 99¢ $406 7d
Exact Score: England 1 - 3 Costa Rica? BUY No 99¢ $188 8d
Exact Score: Málaga CF 0 - 3 UD Las Palmas? BUY No 99¢ $307 8d
Exact Score: Armenia 2 - 3 Moldova? BUY No 99¢ $491 9d
Exact Score: France 3 - 3 Northern Ireland? BUY No 99¢ $193 9d
Exact Score: Ecuador 3 - 2 Guatemala? BUY No 99¢ $5 10d
XRP Up or Down - June 7, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $0 10d
XRP Up or Down - June 7, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $3 10d
XRP Up or Down - June 7, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $3 10d
Exact Score: Morocco 3 - 2 Norway? BUY No 98¢ $10 10d
Opensea FDV above $500M one day after launch? BUY Yes 40¢ $3 72d
Will To Lam be elected General Secretary of the Vietnamese Communist P BUY Yes 91¢ $301 148d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $92,000 and $94,000 on January 20 BUY No 87¢ $290 148d
Will Bitcoin reach $92,000 December 29-January 4? BUY Yes 61¢ $5 164d
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs TheMongolz (BO3) BUY Vitality 78¢ $18 188d
Counter-Strike: FaZe vs Passion UA (BO3) BUY Passion UA 33¢ $8 192d
Counter-Strike: Passion UA vs Team Falcons (BO1) BUY Team Falcons 79¢ $13 195d
Counter-Strike: Passion UA vs M80 (BO3) BUY Passion UA 45¢ $13 197d
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 1, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET BUY Up 42¢ $2 199d
Will Seattle Sounders FC win the FIFA Club World Cup? BUY Yes $1 364d
US national Bitcoin reserve in 2025? SELL Yes 35¢ $3 364d
Will Krzysztof Stanowski be the next President of Poland? BUY Yes $1 391d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,511.39 · official $1,511.43 (match) · 116 history records