trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 1 | -35.5% | -41.7% | 0% | 0% | -41.7% |
| ≤30d | 1 | -35.5% | -41.7% | 0% | 0% | -41.7% |
| ≤90d | 7 | -14.1% | -22.3% | 57% | 43% | -18.9% |
| all | 7 | -14.1% | -22.3% | 57% | 43% | -18.9% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -22.3% | 43% | -18.9% |
| 10% | -29.7% | 29% | -26.7% |
| 15% | -36.5% | 0% | -33.8% |
| 20% | -42.7% | 0% | -40.3% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? | Yes | 54¢ | 56¢ | $35 | $36 | +$1 (+3%) |
| Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by July 31? | Yes | 9¢ | 8¢ | $20 | $18 | −$2 (-11%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? | Jun 25 | $150 | −$53 | -36% |
| Will Rafael López Aliaga finish in second place in the first round of | Apr 16 | $650 | −$282 | -43% |
| Will Rafael López Aliaga and Keiko Fujimori advance to the runoff? | Apr 16 | $200 | +$13 | +6% |
| Will turnout in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential elec | Apr 13 | $100 | +$15 | +15% |
| Will Rafael López Aliaga finish in first place in the first round of t | Apr 13 | $70 | −$67 | -96% |
| Will Carlos Álvarez win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? | Apr 12 | $200 | +$49 | +25% |
| Will Carlos Álvarez finish in second place in the first round of the 2 | Apr 12 | $451 | +$137 | +30% |