Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T06:10:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
95 0x95c2…d7a3 other 114 markets active 0h ago coverage 7d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died✗ net negative once open positions are counted! high turnover
Total PnL −$13 (-1%) realized +$35 · open −$48
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +36% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +5% what you keep after slip
Net edge+5%after slip
Net WR24%break-even
Win rate27%25W / 67L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$11per market
Trades / day27.1pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit58%portable
Net worth$47now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$148
7 days−$197
14 days−$197
30 days−$197
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 47% −$41
crypto 41% −$202
politics 6% −$31
other 6% +$25
sports 0% +$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +24%
net ROI/market (all)+23.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 92 +36.5% +23.5% 27% 24% -28.8%
≤30d 92 +36.5% +23.5% 27% 24% -28.8%
≤90d 92 +36.5% +23.5% 27% 24% -28.8%
all 92 +36.5% +23.5% 27% 24% -28.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover27.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +23.5% 24% -28.8%
10% ← realistic here +11.7% 22% -35.6%
15% +0.9% 20% -41.8%
20% -9.0% 17% -47.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 19% · top 2 27% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -19% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
12% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +37% · $-wt -19% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +10% → late +63% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$6 · ×1.39 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.52 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

7d coverage
Net worth$47
Realized+$35
Unrealized−$48
Win rate (resolved)27%
Wins / losses25 / 67
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions22
Markets (closed)92 / 114
History coverage7d
Avg bet$11
Trades / day27.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit58%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 22 History 92 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Mitch McConnell step down from the Senate before his term ends? Yes 35¢ 24¢ $37 $26 −$11 (-30%)
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 0.3–0.4%? Yes 8¢ 6¢ $7 $5 −$2 (-23%)
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 0.1–0.2%? Yes 3¢ 2¢ $5 $2 −$3 (-50%)
Will Japan reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 12¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+20%)
Will Nirav Shah win the 2026 Maine Governor Democratic primary election? Yes 19¢ 22¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+13%)
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $2 $1 −$0 (-3%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+7%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 6¢ 6¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-9%)
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-3%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 3¢ 3¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-9%)
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 0.2–0.3%? No 9¢ 8¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-12%)
Will there be at least 2200 measles cases in the U.S. by June 30, 2026? Yes 12¢ 8¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-38%)
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 31°C on June 17? Yes 25¢ 4¢ $3 $0 −$2 (-86%)
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 0–0.1%? Yes 3¢ 0¢ $8 $0 −$8 (-97%)
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 0.4–0.5%? Yes 3¢ 0¢ $11 $0 −$11 (-98%)
Will Sánchez win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 0–0.1%? Yes 3¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-95%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 17? Yes 3¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-98%)
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 27°C on June 17? Yes 11¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-98%)
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 32°C on June 17? Yes 22¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 31°C on June 17? Yes 11¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 17? Yes 16¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 70-71°F on June 16? Yes 35¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 50 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 17 $69 −$65 -94%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 29°C on June 17? Jun 17 $1 +$41 +3822%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on June 17? Jun 17 $1 +$9 +845%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 17 $105 −$100 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 17 $53 −$31 -58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 16 $101 +$8 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 16 $100 +$7 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 16 $52 +$7 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -96%
Exact Score: France 3 - 1 Senegal? Jun 16 $1 +$11 +1116%
Exact Score: France 0 - 2 Senegal? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: France 1 - 1 Senegal? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -98%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 74-75°F on Ju Jun 16 $2 −$2 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 20°C on June 16? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -97%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on Ju Jun 16 $6 −$6 -98%
Exact Score: Iraq 0 - 2 Norway? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -98%
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 1 Norway? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -98%
Exact Score: France 2 - 1 Senegal? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 1 - 1 Uruguay? Jun 15 $1 +$1 +138%
Exact Score: Belgium 1 - 1 Egypt? Jun 15 $1 +$8 +786%
Exact Score: Belgium 1 - 0 Egypt? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -98%
Exact Score: Belgium 2 - 1 Egypt? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Belgium 2 - 2 Egypt? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 2 - 1 Ecuador? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 1 - 2 Ecuador? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 1 - 1 Ecuador? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -98%
Exact Score: Sweden 2 - 1 Tunisia? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Sweden 1 - 1 Tunisia? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -98%
Exact Score: Netherlands 3 - 1 Japan? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 1 Japan? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 1 Japan? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -98%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 90-91°F on Ju Jun 14 $52 −$51 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on June 14? Jun 14 $1 +$8 +770%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 14? Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Exact Score: Haiti 0 - 1 Scotland? Jun 14 $1 +$6 +596%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 14? Jun 14 $6 −$5 -96%
Exact Score: Brazil 1 - 2 Morocco? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -97%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 70-71°F on Ju Jun 13 $21 −$20 -96%
Will Morocco reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $2 +$1 +47%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $6 +$7 +115%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 72-73°F on Ju Jun 13 $17 −$17 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET BUY Up 10¢ $10 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET BUY Up 4¢ $2 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET BUY Down 13¢ $69 35m
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 29°C on June 17? SELL Yes 69¢ $42 49m
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on June 17? SELL Yes 89¢ $10 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET BUY Down 22¢ $105 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET BUY Down 1¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET SELL Up 8¢ $22 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET BUY Up 17¢ $53 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET BUY Down 93¢ $101 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET BUY Up 93¢ $100 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET BUY Up 16¢ $1 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET BUY Up 85¢ $51 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET BUY Down 38¢ $1 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET BUY Up 7¢ $1 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET BUY Up 37¢ $1 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET BUY Down 18¢ $1 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET SELL Down 54¢ $2 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET BUY Down 31¢ $1 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET BUY Down 2¢ $1 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET BUY Down 9¢ $1 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET BUY Down 8¢ $1 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $5 8h
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 31°C on June 17? BUY Yes 25¢ $3 8h
Exact Score: France 0 - 2 Senegal? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 10h
Exact Score: France 1 - 1 Senegal? BUY Yes 13¢ $1 10h
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 27°C on June 17? BUY Yes 11¢ $1 10h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 74-75°F on Ju BUY Yes 0¢ $1 10h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 32°C on June 17? BUY Yes 20¢ $0 11h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on June 17? BUY Yes 9¢ $1 11h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $46.84 · official $46.85 (match) · 221 history records