Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T20:01:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
95 0x95bf…7c54 crypto 631 markets active 1h ago coverage 90d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$100 (-3%) realized −$98 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -15% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -29% what you keep after slip
Net edge-29%after slip
Net WR49%break-even
Win rate55%344W / 285L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$5per market
Trades / day19.6pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$6now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$97
7 days+$77
14 days−$18
30 days+$43
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$73
other 0% −$9
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +49%
net ROI/market (all)-23.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 159 -13.9% -22.1% 49% 49% -4.5%
≤30d 245 -9.7% -18.3% 55% 55% -7.1%
≤90d 629 -15.2% -23.3% 55% 49% -11.3%
all 629 -15.2% -23.3% 55% 49% -11.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover19.6 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -23.3% 49% -11.3%
10% -30.6% 37% -19.8%
15% -37.3% 25% -27.5%
20% -43.5% 14% -34.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 14% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
9% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -15% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -19% → late -12% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$4 · ×0.77 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.93 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

90d coverage
Net worth$6
Realized−$98
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses344 / 285
Open positions2
Markets (closed)629 / 631
History coverage90d
Avg bet$5
Trades / day19.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 629 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 9¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-19%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 12¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-32%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 32 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET Jun 27 $2 −$1 -77%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Jun 27 $4 +$1 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Jun 27 $80 +$99 +124%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Jun 27 $14 −$4 -26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jun 27 $56 +$13 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 27 $43 −$31 -72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Jun 27 $75 +$32 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET Jun 27 $21 −$10 -49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Jun 27 $19 +$14 +71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Jun 27 $18 −$17 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET Jun 27 $13 +$10 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET Jun 27 $10 +$4 +43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET Jun 27 $17 −$16 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET Jun 27 $25 +$22 +91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET Jun 27 $8 −$8 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET Jun 26 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET Jun 26 $22 −$10 -43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET Jun 26 $4 −$3 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET Jun 26 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Jun 26 $10 +$14 +140%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Jun 26 $14 +$9 +64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET Jun 26 $4 +$5 +131%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Jun 26 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Jun 26 $2 +$2 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Jun 26 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Jun 26 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Jun 26 $3 −$3 -91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Jun 26 $5 −$4 -78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Jun 26 $5 +$1 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jun 26 $35 +$28 +80%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Jun 26 $5 −$4 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET Jun 26 $6 +$5 +91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET Jun 26 $1 $0 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Jun 26 $2 $0 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Jun 26 $1 +$2 +110%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET Jun 26 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET Jun 26 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET Jun 26 $16 +$13 +82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET Jun 26 $6 −$6 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET Jun 26 $3 −$1 -45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET Jun 26 $1 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET Jun 26 $2 $0 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET Jun 25 $39 +$34 +88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET Jun 25 $1 $0 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET Jun 25 $4 −$3 -70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET Jun 25 $45 +$24 +53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET Jun 25 $7 +$3 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET Jun 25 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET Jun 25 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET Jun 25 $2 −$2 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET SELL Down 45¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET BUY Down 37¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET SELL Down 81¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET BUY Down 80¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET SELL Down 31¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET BUY Down 35¢ $7 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET BUY Down 27¢ $13 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $23 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $37 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET SELL Down 6¢ $10 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET BUY Down 7¢ $14 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET BUY Down 80¢ $56 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET SELL Down 24¢ $10 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET BUY Down 31¢ $15 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET BUY Down 60¢ $28 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET BUY Down 82¢ $37 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET BUY Down 60¢ $39 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET SELL Down 30¢ $9 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET BUY Down 31¢ $11 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET BUY Down 43¢ $10 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET SELL Down 56¢ $0 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET BUY Down 57¢ $9 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET BUY Down 56¢ $11 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET SELL Down 40¢ $0 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET BUY Down 39¢ $18 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET BUY Down 56¢ $13 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET SELL Down 70¢ $1 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET BUY Down 67¢ $10 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET SELL Down 33¢ $0 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET BUY Down 35¢ $10 17h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $6.21 · official $5.39 (match) · 2343 history records