Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T00:00:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
95 0x95bf…e1af other 52 markets active 1h ago coverage 552d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$28 (-0%) realized −$28 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR12%break-even
Win rate22%11W / 40L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$380per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit63%portable
Net worth$51now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$0
14 days+$0
30 days+$7
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
economics 78% −$15
politics 14% −$7
other 6% −$4
sports 1% −$3
crypto 1% $0
tech 1% $0
culture 0% $0
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +12%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 13 +7.7% -2.6% 23% 8% -6.6%
≤90d 41 +0.1% -9.4% 24% 15% -9.8%
all 51 -0.1% -9.7% 22% 12% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 12% -9.7%
10% -18.3% 12% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 12% -26.2%
20% -33.4% 10% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 22% · top 2 39% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
45% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late +4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$2 · ×2.22 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.61 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

552d coverage
Net worth$51
Realized−$28
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)22%
Wins / losses11 / 40
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)51 / 52
History coverage552d
Avg bet$380
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit63%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 51 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ethereum dip to $1,000 in June? No 99¢ 99¢ $51 $51 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Rodina gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary elec Jun 14 $16 $0 -0%
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 12 $11 $0 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 07 $10 $0 -0%
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 06 $14 $0 -0%
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 05 $10 $0 -0%
Will XRP dip to $1.00 in May? Jun 05 $15 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 in May? Jun 05 $48 $0 +0%
Will Jumanji 3 be the top grossing movie of 2026? May 28 $25 $0 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 27 $11 $0 -0%
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 May 26 $10 $0 -0%
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on June May 22 $11 $0 -0%
Cleveland Guardians vs. Detroit Tigers May 22 $7 +$7 +101%
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 20 $28 $0 -0%
Will Lucy Powell be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2 May 18 $67 $0 -0%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Detroit Tigers May 18 $9 +$10 +109%
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 13 $59 $0 -0%
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 12 $62 $0 -0%
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 11 $134 $0 -0%
Will Athletic Club win on 2026-05-10? May 11 $12 −$12 -100%
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? May 08 $137 $0 -0%
Will New Zealand win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 07 $76 $0 -0%
Will Wuthering Heights be the top grossing movie of 2026? May 06 $72 $0 -0%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 24 $73 $0 -0%
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Apr 24 $142 $0 -0%
Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 23 $71 $0 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 23 $144 $0 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 23 $75 $0 -0%
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 19 $69 $0 -0%
Will Alpine be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Apr 18 $70 $0 -0%
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 18 $77 $0 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 17 $73 $0 -0%
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$2B one day after launch? Apr 11 $47 +$2 +5%
Hawks vs. Cavaliers Apr 09 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-08? Apr 09 $10 +$8 +79%
Avalanche vs. Blues Apr 08 $5 −$5 -100%
Predators vs. Kings Apr 07 $6 −$6 -100%
Blackhawks vs. Sharks Apr 07 $8 +$4 +59%
Lightning vs. Sabres Apr 07 $7 +$8 +104%
TCU Horned Frogs vs. Ohio State Buckeyes Apr 06 $17 −$17 -100%
Suns vs. Hornets Apr 06 $11 +$6 +50%
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in March? Apr 02 $23 $0 +1%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of February 2026? Mar 05 $89 $0 +0%
Based FDV above $3B one day after launch? Feb 27 $90 $0 -0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after January 2026 meeting? Feb 09 $15,137 −$15 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in January? Jan 15 $9 $0 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Oct 10 $8 $0 -0%
Will Lando Norris be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Sep 19 $17 $0 -3%
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2025 NBA Finals? May 15 $50 −$1 -2%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2025 NBA Finals? May 03 $4 $0 -7%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2025 NBA Finals? Mar 28 $18 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ethereum dip to $1,000 in June? BUY No 99¢ $51 1h
Will Rodina gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary elec SELL No 100¢ $16 3d
Will Rodina gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary elec BUY No 100¢ $16 3d
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $11 5d
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $11 5d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $10 10d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $10 10d
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $14 11d
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $14 11d
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $10 12d
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $10 12d
Will Jumanji 3 be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $10 20d
Will Jumanji 3 be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $10 20d
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $11 21d
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $11 21d
Will XRP dip to $1.00 in May? BUY No 100¢ $15 22d
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 SELL No 100¢ $10 22d
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 BUY No 100¢ $10 22d
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on June SELL No 100¢ $11 26d
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on June BUY No 100¢ $11 26d
Will Jumanji 3 be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $15 27d
Will Jumanji 3 be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $15 27d
Cleveland Guardians vs. Detroit Tigers BUY Cleveland Guardians 49¢ $7 27d
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $14 28d
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $14 28d
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $14 29d
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $14 29d
Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 in May? BUY No 100¢ $48 30d
Will Lucy Powell be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2 SELL No 100¢ $53 30d
Will Lucy Powell be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2 SELL No 100¢ $14 30d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $50.67 · official $50.67 (match) · 216 history records