Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T21:26:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
95 0x95b9…1e80 other 202 markets active 2h ago coverage 126d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$328 (-16%) realized −$336 · open +$8
Gross ROI / mkt -20% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -30% what you keep after slip
Net edge-30%after slip
Net WR32%break-even
Win rate36%73W / 128L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$10per market
Trades / day4.0pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit70%portable
Net worth$130now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$44
7 days+$4
14 days−$118
30 days−$324
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
finance 36% −$253
other 34% −$16
politics 13% −$34
culture 7% −$1
sports 5% −$22
crypto 3% +$14
world 3% −$13
economics 0% −$3
weather 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +32%
net ROI/market (all)-27.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 13 +3.4% -6.4% 54% 54% -8.8%
≤30d 37 -37.2% -43.2% 27% 27% -33.1%
≤90d 160 -20.7% -28.3% 38% 32% -21.5%
all 201 -20.0% -27.6% 36% 32% -20.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -27.6% 32% -20.9%
10% -34.6% 26% -28.4%
15% -40.9% 19% -35.3%
20% -46.7% 14% -41.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 21% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -20% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
12% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -20% · $-wt -18% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -20% → late -20% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$6 · ×0.95 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.54 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

126d coverage
Net worth$130
Realized−$336
Unrealized+$8
Win rate (resolved)36%
Wins / losses73 / 128
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)201 / 202
History coverage126d
Avg bet$10
Trades / day4.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit70%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 201 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win on 2026-06-22? Yes 92¢ 98¢ $122 $130 +$8 (+7%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 11 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $139 +$37 +26%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $53 +$31 +60%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $49 +$6 +12%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $77 −$77 -100%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $20 +$47 +229%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $28 +$12 +44%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $10 +$8 +76%
Will Czechia win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -85%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $95 by end of June? Jun 18 $23 −$15 -67%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of June? Jun 18 $57 −$44 -78%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $9 $0 -3%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $75 by end of June? Jun 18 $9 +$3 +30%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -97%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $2 +$2 +90%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights Jun 15 $3 +$3 +86%
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 1 Cabo Verde? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $105 by end of June? Jun 14 $71 −$41 -57%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $40 −$39 -98%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $115 by end of June? Jun 11 $14 −$2 -12%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of June? Jun 11 $54 −$36 -66%
Will Kimi Antonelli win the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Prix? Jun 07 $2 −$2 -97%
Will Charles Leclerc win the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Prix? Jun 07 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $80 by end of June? May 29 $3 −$1 -17%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $85 by end of June? May 29 $10 +$1 +12%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of June? May 28 $24 −$4 -16%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in May? May 27 $157 −$140 -89%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in May? May 27 $2 −$1 -65%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in May? May 27 $25 −$15 -61%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $115 in May? May 27 $33 −$14 -43%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in May? May 27 $5 −$4 -70%
Will Czechia win the 2026 IIHF World Championship? May 26 $6 −$6 -97%
World Championships: Czechia vs. Canada May 26 $20 −$20 -98%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in May? May 20 $8 −$6 -72%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in May? May 20 $10 −$6 -62%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $140 in May? May 20 $3 −$2 -57%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $150 in May? May 20 $2 $0 -1%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in May? May 18 $28 +$15 +53%
Epstein suicide note released by May 8? May 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Epstein suicide note released by May 31? May 14 $3 $0 +8%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in May? May 11 $6 +$2 +32%
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 10 $2 −$1 -29%
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 10 $1 $0 -14%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $60 in May? May 10 $1 $0 +36%
Will Yulia Navalnaya win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? May 08 $2 −$1 -29%
Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? May 08 $5 −$2 -37%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will France win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 92¢ $122 1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 68¢ $84 5h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 62¢ $53 24h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 64¢ $53 24h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 65¢ $55 25h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 89¢ $49 37h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 85¢ $77 46h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 29¢ $5 2d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 30¢ $15 2d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 58¢ $18 2d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 56¢ $10 4d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 55¢ $10 4d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 56¢ $10 4d
Will Czechia win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $0 4d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $95 by end of June? SELL Yes $1 4d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of June? SELL Yes $3 4d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 18¢ $7 4d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 18¢ $7 4d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $95 by end of June? BUY Yes $2 4d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $75 by end of June? SELL Yes 95¢ $9 4d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes $1 5d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $75 by end of June? SELL Yes 90¢ $1 5d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 16¢ $1 5d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $75 by end of June? SELL Yes 87¢ $1 5d
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes $1 7d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $75 by end of June? SELL Yes 42¢ $1 7d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of June? BUY Yes $9 7d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $75 by end of June? BUY Yes 64¢ $9 7d
Will Czechia win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $1 7d
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights BUY Hurricanes 53¢ $3 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $130.42 · official $130.16 (match) · 612 history records