Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T13:31:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
95 0x95b8…47c9 sports 1234 markets active 1h ago coverage 217d ⚠
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 216d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$34,910 (-5%) realized −$34,905 · open −$5
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate45%557W / 676L
Whale WR49%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$604per market
Trades / day13.5pace
Fees−$3,189est.
Kalshi-fit92%portable
Net worth$495now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 217d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 92% −$1,887
other 8% −$5,549
politics 0% +$195
crypto 0% −$56
world 0% +$20
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-10.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 54 -8.2% -16.9% 43% 41% -19.9%
≤30d 193 +1.3% -8.3% 46% 45% -9.1%
≤90d 581 -6.2% -15.1% 44% 42% -10.6%
all 1233 -1.1% -10.5% 45% 43% -10.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover13.5 tr/day
realistic slip~11%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -10.5% 43% -10.7%
10% ← realistic here -19.1% 42% -19.2%
15% -26.9% 39% -27.0%
20% -34.1% 33% -34.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 49% (≥$677) neutral
Persistence
early +4% → late -6% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$484 vs −$411 · ×1.18 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.97 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

217d coverage
Net worth$495
Realized−$34,905
Unrealized−$5
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses557 / 676
Whale WR (big bets)49%
Est. fees paid−$3,189
Open positions1
Markets (closed)1233 / 1234
History coverage217d ⚠
Avg bet$604
Trades / day13.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit92%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 1233 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team - Map 1 Winner BetBoom Team 50¢ 50¢ $500 $495 −$5 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $406 +$258 +64%
Asuncion 2: Santiago De La Fuente vs Matias Soto Jun 17 $203 −$82 -41%
Set Handicap: Nakashima (-1.5) vs Buse (+1.5) Jun 17 $308 +$288 +94%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $227 +$82 +36%
Set Handicap: Rublev (-1.5) vs Hurkacz (+1.5) Jun 16 $43 −$43 -100%
Set Handicap: Rinderknech (-1.5) vs Medjedovic (+1.5) Jun 16 $170 −$170 -100%
Set Handicap: Bublik (-1.5) vs Bellucci (+1.5) Jun 16 $612 −$612 -100%
HSBC Championships: Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard vs Corentin Moutet Jun 16 $35 −$35 -100%
HSBC Championships: Jakub Mensik vs Adrian Mannarino Jun 16 $95 +$110 +116%
Halle Open: Karen Khachanov vs Ethan Quinn Jun 16 $208 −$165 -79%
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs HyperSpirit (BO3) - European Pro Leagu Jun 16 $116 +$92 +80%
Halle Open: Andrey Rublev vs Hubert Hurkacz Jun 16 $644 −$32 -5%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $2,022 −$2,022 -100%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 15 $516 +$124 +24%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $1,849 −$691 -37%
LoL: Solary vs Galions - Game 1 Winner Jun 15 $1,215 −$1,215 -100%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $802 +$405 +51%
Set 1 Winner: Perricard vs Moutet Jun 15 $995 −$195 -20%
Set Handicap: Basilashvili (-1.5) vs Altmaier (+1.5) Jun 15 $85 −$85 -100%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $4,060 +$1,357 +33%
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car Jun 15 $1,737 +$1,220 +70%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 14 $818 +$920 +112%
Map Handicap: VIT (-1.5) vs BetBoom Team (+1.5) Jun 14 $449 +$371 +82%
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Taylor Fritz Jun 14 $1,185 −$1,185 -100%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $2,308 −$2,308 -100%
Halle Open, Qualification: Lorenzo Sonego vs Nikoloz Basilashvili Jun 14 $464 +$724 +156%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $558 −$93 -17%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $2,346 −$40 -2%
1H Spread: Spurs (-10.5) Jun 14 $1,020 −$1,020 -100%
1H Spread: Spurs (-7.5) Jun 14 $2,046 −$2,046 -100%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $6,216 −$3,822 -62%
Scotland leading at halftime? Jun 14 $232 +$340 +146%
1H Spread: Spurs (-4.5) Jun 14 $1,015 +$762 +75%
Houston Astros vs. Kansas City Royals Jun 14 $876 −$645 -74%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $6,671 −$443 -7%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $8,570 −$3,363 -39%
Map Handicap: VIT (-1.5) vs MOUZ (+1.5) Jun 13 $1,806 −$1,806 -100%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $1,018 +$1,087 +107%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FURIA - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $3,009 +$1,568 +52%
Breel Embolo: 1+ goals Jun 13 $2,029 −$62 -3%
LoL: Team Heretics Academy vs Eintracht Spandau (BO5) - EMEA Masters P Jun 13 $274 +$12 +4%
Game Handicap: GEN (-2.5) vs KT Rolster (+2.5) Jun 13 $2,029 +$1,888 +93%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $1,781 −$1,781 -100%
Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs Aurora Gaming (+1.5) Jun 13 $2,388 −$2,388 -100%
Map Handicap: FAL (-1.5) vs BetBoom Team (+1.5) Jun 13 $1,709 −$1,709 -100%
Game Handicap: KCB (-1.5) vs Forsaken (+1.5) Jun 12 $3,045 +$2,949 +97%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $2,500 +$1,386 +55%
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Sho Shimabukuro Jun 12 $1,195 +$1,309 +110%
Map Handicap: FUT (-1.5) vs G2 (+1.5) Jun 12 $12 −$12 -100%
Libema Open: Zhizhen Zhang vs Adrian Mannarino Jun 12 $2,031 −$2,031 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team - Map 1 Winner BUY BetBoom Team 50¢ $508 1h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 85¢ $664 15h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 51¢ $406 16h
Asuncion 2: Santiago De La Fuente vs Matias Soto SELL Santiago De La Fuente 32¢ $121 19h
Asuncion 2: Santiago De La Fuente vs Matias Soto BUY Santiago De La Fuente 52¢ $203 19h
Set Handicap: Nakashima (-1.5) vs Buse (+1.5) SELL Nakashima 100¢ $597 24h
Set Handicap: Nakashima (-1.5) vs Buse (+1.5) BUY Nakashima 51¢ $308 31h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 79¢ $308 40h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 57¢ $227 41h
HSBC Championships: Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard vs Corentin Moutet BUY Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard 53¢ $35 47h
Set Handicap: Rinderknech (-1.5) vs Medjedovic (+1.5) BUY Rinderknech 35¢ $7 47h
Set Handicap: Rinderknech (-1.5) vs Medjedovic (+1.5) BUY Rinderknech 35¢ $163 47h
HSBC Championships: Jakub Mensik vs Adrian Mannarino SELL Adrian Mannarino 99¢ $205 2d
HSBC Championships: Jakub Mensik vs Adrian Mannarino BUY Adrian Mannarino 45¢ $95 2d
Set Handicap: Rublev (-1.5) vs Hurkacz (+1.5) BUY Rublev 31¢ $43 2d
Halle Open: Karen Khachanov vs Ethan Quinn SELL Karen Khachanov 15¢ $43 2d
Halle Open: Karen Khachanov vs Ethan Quinn BUY Karen Khachanov 70¢ $208 2d
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs HyperSpirit (BO3) - European Pro Leagu SELL Sashi Esport 92¢ $208 2d
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs HyperSpirit (BO3) - European Pro Leagu BUY Sashi Esport 51¢ $116 2d
Set Handicap: Bublik (-1.5) vs Bellucci (+1.5) BUY Bublik 47¢ $612 2d
Halle Open: Andrey Rublev vs Hubert Hurkacz SELL Hubert Hurkacz 51¢ $612 2d
Halle Open: Andrey Rublev vs Hubert Hurkacz BUY Hubert Hurkacz 52¢ $644 2d
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? SELL Yes 71¢ $640 2d
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 56¢ $516 2d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL G2 44¢ $516 2d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY G2 53¢ $643 2d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL Natus Vincere 32¢ $641 2d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Natus Vincere 58¢ $1,206 2d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 2 Winner SELL G2 99¢ $1,207 2d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 2 Winner BUY G2 65¢ $802 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $495.00 · official $495.00 (match) · 3500 history records