Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T09:21:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
95 0x95b4…7c3f crypto 193 markets active 1h ago coverage 34d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$155 (-7%) realized −$157 · open +$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate33%63W / 129L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$12per market
Trades / day8.1pace
Fees−$19est.
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$12now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$56
7 days−$95
14 days−$169
30 days−$134
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 53% −$198
crypto 42% +$22
other 5% −$37
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)-13.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 61 -21.9% -29.3% 38% 33% -17.5%
≤30d 185 -1.4% -10.8% 34% 29% -15.2%
≤90d 192 -3.9% -13.1% 33% 29% -18.3%
all 192 -3.9% -13.1% 33% 29% -18.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.1 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.1% 29% -18.3%
10% -21.4% 28% -26.1%
15% -29.0% 27% -33.2%
20% -35.9% 25% -39.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 10% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -10% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
11% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +22% → late -30% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$15 vs −$9 · ×1.67 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.81 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

34d coverage
Net worth$12
Realized−$157
Unrealized+$2
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses63 / 129
Est. fees paid−$19
Open positions1
Markets (closed)192 / 193
History coverage34d
Avg bet$12
Trades / day8.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 192 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 16? Yes 5¢ 6¢ $10 $12 +$2 (+24%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 111 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4AM ET Jun 16 $17 −$7 -39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3AM ET Jun 16 $20 −$10 -48%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $87 −$8 -9%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $18 −$18 -98%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 4.5 Jun 16 $20 −$20 -99%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $15 +$23 +152%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $10 −$10 -98%
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 0 - 2 Uruguay? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -98%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $15 +$15 +101%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $14 −$14 -98%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 12.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $9 −$9 -98%
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 in June? Jun 15 $26 +$13 +49%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $20 −$20 -99%
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 0 Cabo Verde? Jun 15 $9 −$9 -98%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 15? Jun 14 $20 −$19 -94%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $58 +$18 +31%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 7.5 Jun 14 $28 +$19 +68%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $25 −$14 -57%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $35 +$18 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 14 $6 $0 +5%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $32 −$31 -95%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 3.5 Jun 13 $15 −$15 -98%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 13.5 Total Corners Jun 13 $7 −$6 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Jun 13 $6 −$6 -96%
Will Bitcoin reach $66,000 June 8-14? Jun 13 $37 −$7 -20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 13 $7 +$8 +112%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jun 13 $11 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 13 $10 +$5 +44%
Ilkley: Ashlyn Krueger vs Darja Vidmanova Jun 13 $10 −$10 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET Jun 13 $11 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 13 $10 +$1 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 13 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 13 $10 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 13 $10 +$10 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Jun 13 $11 −$9 -82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 13 $10 −$6 -58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 13 $11 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 13 $11 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 13 $11 +$5 +48%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 12 $20 +$37 +180%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 3.5 Jun 12 $17 −$17 -98%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $10 −$10 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 12 $10 +$15 +140%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 12 $11 −$6 -62%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 12? Jun 12 $9 +$31 +362%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 11 $13 −$12 -94%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 3.5 Jun 11 $12 −$12 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET Jun 11 $0 $0 -56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 11 $5 −$5 -94%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4AM ET BUY Down 21¢ $7 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4AM ET SELL Up 77¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4AM ET BUY Up 76¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3AM ET BUY Down 93¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3AM ET BUY Up 39¢ $10 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 16? BUY Yes 5¢ $11 2h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 11¢ $31 2h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 6.5 Total Corners BUY Over 20¢ $18 6h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 62¢ $20 6h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 46¢ $10 12h
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 0 - 2 Uruguay? BUY Yes 16¢ $5 12h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Over 39¢ $15 12h
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 100¢ $31 12h
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 29¢ $14 14h
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 49¢ $15 14h
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 12.5 Total Corners BUY Over 24¢ $9 14h
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 in June? SELL Yes 47¢ $39 14h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 51¢ $20 23h
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 0 Cabo Verde? BUY Yes 17¢ $9 23h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 15? BUY Yes 4¢ $20 35h
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 in June? BUY Yes 29¢ $26 35h
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 99¢ $76 35h
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 75¢ $58 37h
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 7.5 SELL Over 62¢ $47 38h
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 9.5 Total Corners SELL Over 23¢ $11 38h
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 7.5 BUY Over 36¢ $28 38h
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Over 51¢ $25 38h
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 100¢ $53 38h
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 65¢ $35 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $6 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $12.42 · official $12.42 (match) · 332 history records