Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T11:53:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
95 0x95b3…f254 crypto 11 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$563 (-22%) realized −$563 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -29% what you keep after slip
Net edge-29%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate64%7W / 4L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$231per market
Trades / day34.0pace
Kalshi-fit82%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 65% −$202
other 35% −$489
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-16.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 -7.9% -16.6% 64% 36% -16.1%
≤30d 11 -7.9% -16.6% 64% 36% -16.1%
≤90d 11 -7.9% -16.6% 64% 36% -16.1%
all 11 -7.9% -16.6% 64% 36% -16.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover34.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -16.6% 36% -16.1%
10% ← realistic here -24.6% 27% -24.1%
15% -31.9% 27% -31.5%
20% -38.6% 18% -38.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 37% · top 2 66% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -40% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
43% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -40% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$30 vs −$225 · ×0.13 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.23 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$563
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)64%
Wins / losses7 / 4
Open positions0
Markets (closed)11 / 11
History coverage1d
Avg bet$231
Trades / day34.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit82%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 11 Trades
no open positions (2 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Jun 24 $702 −$204 -29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Jun 24 $207 +$6 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET Jun 24 $30 +$4 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET Jun 24 $355 +$24 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET Jun 24 $31 −$31 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET Jun 24 $10 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Jun 24 $102 +$38 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Jun 24 $102 −$100 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET Jun 24 $103 +$61 +60%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? AND Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $64 +$78 +122%
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $839 −$567 -68%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET BUY Up 83¢ $87 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET SELL Down 19¢ $26 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET BUY Down 68¢ $102 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET SELL Up 51¢ $72 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET BUY Up 68¢ $102 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET SELL Down 25¢ $35 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET BUY Down 68¢ $102 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET SELL Down 74¢ $114 32m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET BUY Down 64¢ $103 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET SELL Up 54¢ $84 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET BUY Up 62¢ $103 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET SELL Down 38¢ $63 35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET BUY Down 57¢ $103 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET SELL Down 81¢ $141 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET BUY Down 57¢ $103 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET SELL Down 36¢ $72 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $104 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET SELL Down 93¢ $34 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET BUY Down 81¢ $30 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET BUY Up 92¢ $101 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET SELL Up 89¢ $108 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET BUY Up 82¢ $101 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET SELL Up 74¢ $107 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET BUY Up 68¢ $102 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET SELL Up 70¢ $55 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET BUY Up 62¢ $51 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $31 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET BUY Up 72¢ $102 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET BUY Down 70¢ $102 4h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 41 history records