Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T21:25:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
95 0x95b0…9aa3 politics 5 markets active 7h ago coverage 109d
RISKYcopy with care politics specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$1,871 (-68%) realized −$1,104 · open −$767
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -100% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -100% what you keep after slip
Net edge-100%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate0%0W / 3L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$548per market
Trades / day3.9pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$842now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 109d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 100% −$1,871
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-100.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d no closed markets
≤90d 2 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
all 3 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -100.0% 0% -100.0%
10% -100.0% 0% -100.0%
15% -100.0% 0% -100.0%
20% -100.0% 0% -100.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top —% · top 2 —% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -100% too few recent
Fragile wins
—% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -100% · $-wt -100% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
85.8 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
— vs −$368 no data
Profit factor
×0.0 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

109d coverage
Net worth$842
Realized−$1,104
Unrealized−$767
Win rate (resolved)0%
Wins / losses0 / 3
Open positions2
Markets (closed)3 / 5
History coverage109d
Avg bet$548
Trades / day3.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 3 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Trump out as President before 2027? Yes 16¢ 10¢ $1,244 $738 −$507 (-41%)
Trump out as President by June 30? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $365 $105 −$261 (-71%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Trump out as President by May 31? May 27 $170 −$170 -100%
Trump out as President by April 30? Apr 11 $885 −$884 -100%
Trump out as President by March 31? Mar 25 $50 −$50 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Trump out as President by June 30? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 7h
Trump out as President by June 30? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 7h
Trump out as President by June 30? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 7h
Trump out as President by June 30? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 7h
Trump out as President by June 30? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 7h
Trump out as President by June 30? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 7h
Trump out as President by June 30? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 7h
Trump out as President by June 30? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 7h
Trump out as President by June 30? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 7h
Trump out as President by June 30? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 7h
Trump out as President by June 30? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 7h
Trump out as President by June 30? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 7h
Trump out as President by June 30? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 7h
Trump out as President by June 30? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 7h
Trump out as President by June 30? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 7h
Trump out as President by June 30? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 7h
Trump out as President by June 30? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 7h
Trump out as President by June 30? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 7h
Trump out as President by June 30? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 7h
Trump out as President by June 30? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 7h
Trump out as President by June 30? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 7h
Trump out as President by June 30? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 7h
Trump out as President by June 30? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 7h
Trump out as President by June 30? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 7h
Trump out as President by June 30? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 7h
Trump out as President by June 30? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 7h
Trump out as President by June 30? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 7h
Trump out as President by June 30? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 7h
Trump out as President by June 30? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 7h
Trump out as President by June 30? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 7h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $842.17 · official $842.18 (match) · 430 history records