Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T10:18:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
95 0x95b0…588f crypto 80 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (121 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$848 (+17%) realized +$834 · open +$14
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -30% what you keep after slip
Net edge-30%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate39%28W / 44L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$64per market
Trades / day121.0pace
Fees−$9est.
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$244now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 89% −$211
sports 9% +$299
other 2% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (121 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-17.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 72 -8.6% -17.3% 39% 39% -8.3%
≤30d 72 -8.6% -17.3% 39% 39% -8.3%
≤90d 72 -8.6% -17.3% 39% 39% -8.3%
all 72 -8.6% -17.3% 39% 39% -8.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover121.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -17.3% 39% -8.3%
10% ← realistic here -25.2% 39% -17.1%
15% -32.5% 39% -25.1%
20% -39.1% 38% -32.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 21% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -22% → late +4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$98 vs −$61 · ×1.61 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.02 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$244
Realized+$834
Unrealized+$14
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses28 / 44
Est. fees paid−$9
Open positions8
Markets (closed)72 / 80
History coverage1d
Avg bet$64
Trades / day121.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 8 History 72 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Down 45¢ 78¢ $50 $86 +$36 (+72%)
Will the announcers say "Trump" during the Canada vs Qatar FIFA World Cup Match? Yes 14¢ 9¢ $50 $33 −$17 (-33%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 12¢ 12¢ $30 $32 +$2 (+6%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 18¢ 18¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-0%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 14¢ 14¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-0%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 4¢ 4¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-1%)
Will the announcers say "Comeback / Come Back" during the Canada vs Qatar FIFA World Cup Match? No 25¢ 16¢ $5 $3 −$2 (-38%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 18? Yes 9¢ 2¢ $5 $1 −$4 (-77%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 18 $208 +$257 +124%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 18 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 18 $103 −$103 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 18 $52 −$52 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 18 $104 −$104 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 18 $156 −$156 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 18 $166 −$166 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 18 $231 −$231 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 18 $52 −$52 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 18 $52 −$52 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 18 $259 −$259 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 18 $313 −$300 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 18 $52 −$52 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 18 $52 −$52 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 18 $76 −$76 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 18 $52 +$104 +198%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 18 $155 +$159 +102%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 18 $104 +$96 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 18 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 18 $156 +$201 +129%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 18 $105 +$186 +178%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 18 $103 −$9 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 18 $52 +$46 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 18 $104 +$221 +212%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 18 $52 +$104 +198%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 18 $103 −$103 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 18 $74 −$74 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 18 $104 +$100 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 18 $73 −$73 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 18 $52 +$58 +112%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 18 $73 +$77 +106%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 18 $52 +$47 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 18 $52 +$46 +89%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 18 $52 +$87 +166%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 18 $21 −$21 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 18 $52 +$43 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 18 $52 +$48 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 18 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 18 $52 +$46 +89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 18 $52 −$52 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 18 $52 +$48 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 18 $72 +$65 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 18 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 18 $52 −$52 -100%
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? Jun 18 $31 −$31 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 18 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 18 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 18 $52 +$46 +90%
Ghana vs. Panama: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $20 −$20 -100%
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $20 −$20 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET BUY Down 45¢ $52 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET BUY Down 43¢ $104 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET BUY Down 43¢ $104 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET BUY Up 14¢ $53 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET BUY Up 34¢ $105 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $103 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $52 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET BUY Up 37¢ $52 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $103 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET BUY Up 56¢ $103 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET BUY Up 15¢ $21 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET BUY Up 20¢ $53 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET BUY Up 27¢ $105 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET BUY Up 29¢ $52 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $52 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $52 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET BUY Up 9¢ $11 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $52 32m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $52 35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $52 35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $52 35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET BUY Down 32¢ $52 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET BUY Up 38¢ $52 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET BUY Up 41¢ $52 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $52 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $52 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET BUY Up 2¢ $21 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $104 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $52 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $52 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $244.48 · official $188.93 · 225 history records