Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T13:42:47+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
95 0x95af…4484 crypto 78 markets active 0h ago coverage 45d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$8 (+3%) realized +$8 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -6% what you keep after slip
Net edge-6%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate85%66W / 12L
Drawdown75%max
Avg bet$4per market
Trades / day2.3pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2
7 days+$2
14 days+$2
30 days+$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$7
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-6.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 +11.6% +0.9% 92% 33% -0.4%
≤30d 12 +11.6% +0.9% 92% 33% -0.4%
≤90d 78 +3.7% -6.2% 85% 33% -7.3%
all 78 +3.7% -6.2% 85% 33% -7.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.2% 33% -7.3%
10% -15.2% 21% -16.2%
15% -23.4% 15% -24.3%
20% -30.9% 6% -31.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 22% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
58% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +7% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$2 · ×0.23 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.27 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

45d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$8
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)85%
Wins / losses66 / 12
Open positions0
Markets (closed)78 / 78
History coverage45d
Avg bet$4
Trades / day2.3
Drawdown75%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 78 Trades
no open positions (5 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 16 $3 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET May 08 $1 $0 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET May 08 $1 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET May 08 $2 −$1 -27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET May 08 $7 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET May 06 $7 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET May 06 $6 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET May 06 $5 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET May 06 $5 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET May 06 $6 −$1 -13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET May 06 $1 $0 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET May 06 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET May 06 $6 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET May 06 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET May 06 $1 $0 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET May 05 $5 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET May 05 $5 +$2 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET May 05 $5 +$1 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET May 05 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET May 05 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET May 05 $1 $0 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET May 05 $5 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET May 05 $1 $0 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET May 04 $10 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET May 04 $10 +$4 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET May 04 $6 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET May 04 $5 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET May 04 $4 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET May 04 $15 −$5 -31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET May 04 $10 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET May 04 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET May 04 $10 −$5 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET May 04 $5 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET May 04 $6 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET May 04 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET May 04 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET May 04 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET May 04 $5 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET May 04 $5 +$1 +19%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET BUY Up 89¢ $1 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET BUY Down 92¢ $1 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $1 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $1 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $1 48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $1 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $1 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $1 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET BUY Down 94¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET BUY Down 93¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET BUY Up 76¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET BUY Up 74¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $1 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET BUY Up 70¢ $1 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET BUY Down 69¢ $1 38d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET BUY Down 92¢ $1 38d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET BUY Up 20¢ $1 38d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET BUY Down 66¢ $1 38d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $5 38d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $1 38d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET BUY Down 87¢ $1 38d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $5 40d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET BUY Up 92¢ $1 40d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET BUY Up 83¢ $1 40d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $5 41d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 173 history records