Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T19:16:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
95 0x95ab…1a19 sports 71 markets active 1h ago coverage 780d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$52 (-1%) realized −$41 · open −$11
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR25%break-even
Win rate42%23W / 32L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$103per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$64now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$6
7 days−$5
14 days−$5
30 days−$10
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 55% +$26
politics 20% −$1
other 20% −$65
crypto 3% $0
world 1% −$13
tech 0% $0
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)-10.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 19 +5.8% -4.3% 53% 37% -14.3%
≤30d 21 -4.3% -13.4% 48% 33% -18.9%
≤90d 23 -7.1% -16.0% 48% 35% -37.5%
all 55 -1.0% -10.4% 42% 25% -10.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.4% 25% -10.1%
10% -19.0% 20% -18.7%
15% -26.8% 13% -26.5%
20% -34.0% 13% -33.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 30% · top 2 48% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -31% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
39% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +4% → late -5% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$3 · ×0.79 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.57 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

780d coverage
Net worth$64
Realized−$41
Unrealized−$11
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses23 / 32
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions16
Markets (closed)55 / 71
History coverage780d
Avg bet$103
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 16 History 55 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
OpenAI IPO before 2027? No 50¢ 49¢ $7 $7 −$0 (-2%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Yes 18¢ 22¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+19%)
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? No 76¢ 76¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+0%)
Will Qatar advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 79¢ 74¢ $6 $6 −$0 (-6%)
Will OpenAI not IPO by December 31, 2026? Yes 52¢ 56¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+7%)
World Cup Goals H2H: Messi vs. Ronaldo Ronaldo 27¢ 14¢ $10 $5 −$5 (-49%)
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score No 52¢ 50¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-3%)
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BetBoom Team 46¢ 46¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? No 68¢ 46¢ $6 $4 −$2 (-33%)
Will Spain reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? No 76¢ 76¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-1%)
Will Hamas agree to disarm by June 30? Yes 10¢ $6 $3 −$3 (-47%)
SpaceX or OpenAI higher IPO Market Cap? OpenAI 12¢ 11¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-8%)
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Boston Red Sox Boston Red Sox 47¢ 45¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-4%)
Will no next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom be appointed in 2026? Yes 18¢ 12¢ $3 $2 −$1 (-36%)
Will England reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? No 77¢ 78¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+1%)
Will Rebecca Shepherd finish second in the 2026 Makerfield by-election? No 99¢ 98¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 8 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? Jun 17 $1 $0 +15%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? Jun 17 $9 $0 +4%
Will Shehbaz Sharif attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony? Jun 17 $4 $0 +7%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? Jun 17 $3 $0 -1%
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros Jun 17 $6 +$4 +61%
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30? Jun 16 $4 $0 +4%
Will Trump speak to Ahmed al-Sharaa in June? Jun 16 $1 +$1 +79%
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 Jun 16 $1 $0 -2%
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 16 $4 +$1 +30%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? Jun 13 $3 +$2 +52%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $5 +$5 +97%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 13 $2 $0 -2%
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? Jun 13 $6 −$2 -31%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $6 −$6 -99%
US-Iran nuclear deal by July 31? Jun 11 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Mexico vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 11 $6 +$1 +21%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 11 $17 $0 -3%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 11 $5 −$1 -24%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner Jun 11 $1 −$1 -97%
T20 Blast: Northamptonshire vs Glamorgan May 20 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Atalanta BC win on 2026-05-24? May 20 $3 −$3 -98%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-04-07? Mar 27 $60 −$60 -99%
Kings vs. Celtics Mar 27 $38 +$10 +27%
Will Solana dip to $70 in January? Jan 30 $200 $0 -0%
Jets vs. Devils Jan 30 $15 +$17 +113%
Will Donald Trump be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jan 27 $200 $0 -0%
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jan 23 $200 $0 -0%
Lightning vs. Blackhawks Jan 23 $4 −$4 -100%
Thunder vs. Bucks Jan 23 $16 +$5 +30%
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 21 $189 $0 -0%
Flyers vs. Penguins Jan 21 $10 +$6 +64%
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jan 15 $200 $0 -0%
International T20 Series: India vs South Africa (Game 4) Jan 15 $8 −$2 -26%
Raptors vs. Nets Dec 15 $8 +$2 +24%
Will Chelsea win the 2025–26 Champions League? Nov 11 $2 $0 -0%
Will the Dallas Cowboys win Super Bowl 2026? Oct 22 $2 $0 -0%
Will the New York Jets win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 16 $2 $0 +0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after July 2025 meeting? Aug 10 $2 $0 +1%
Will reconciliation bill be passed by June 30? Jul 11 $2 $0 +16%
Will Montenegro finish in the 2025 Eurovision top 10? Jun 06 $2 $0 +2%
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2025 World Series? May 13 $2 $0 -4%
Will Luxembourg win Eurovision 2025? Apr 21 $5 $0 -0%
Will Louisville win the 2025 NCAA Tournament? Mar 29 $5 $0 +1%
Will the Edmonton Oilers win the 2025 President’s Trophy? Mar 11 $5 $0 -0%
Will SPD win the most seats in the next German election? Mar 07 $4 $0 +0%
Will Justin Trudeau be the next Canadian Prime Minister? Feb 16 $5 $0 -0%
Trump declassifies JFK files in first 100 days? Feb 08 $3 $0 -6%
Will Dragan Primorac be the next President of Croatia? Jan 23 $4 $0 +0%
Brentford wins the Premier League? Dec 22 $3,571 −$4 -0%
Will 'Dune: Part 2' gross most in 2024? Nov 30 $288 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score BUY No 52¢ $3 35m
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score BUY No 52¢ $3 57m
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? BUY No 77¢ $1 2h
Will Rebecca Shepherd finish second in the 2026 Makerfield by-election BUY No 99¢ $1 3h
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes $0 3h
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 12¢ $1 3h
Will Spain reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? BUY No 76¢ $4 4h
Will England reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? BUY No 77¢ $1 4h
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 10¢ $1 4h
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? SELL Yes 86¢ $6 6h
Will Shehbaz Sharif attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony? SELL Yes 81¢ $4 9h
World Cup Goals H2H: Messi vs. Ronaldo BUY Ronaldo 15¢ $0 11h
World Cup Goals H2H: Messi vs. Ronaldo BUY Ronaldo 15¢ $1 11h
Will Shehbaz Sharif attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony? BUY Yes 76¢ $4 12h
World Cup Goals H2H: Messi vs. Ronaldo BUY Ronaldo 14¢ $1 14h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? SELL Yes 93¢ $3 15h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 94¢ $3 15h
World Cup Goals H2H: Messi vs. Ronaldo BUY Ronaldo 22¢ $1 16h
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30? SELL No 73¢ $4 19h
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? BUY Yes 86¢ $2 21h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY BetBoom Team 46¢ $2 21h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY BetBoom Team 46¢ $2 22h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 18¢ $2 22h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 18¢ $4 23h
Will Trump speak to Ahmed al-Sharaa in June? SELL No 70¢ $2 26h
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? BUY Yes 72¢ $4 27h
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros BUY Houston Astros 62¢ $3 27h
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros BUY Houston Astros 61¢ $3 28h
Will OpenAI not IPO by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 55¢ $1 29h
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? SELL Yes 60¢ $3 29h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $63.94 · official $63.88 (match) · 197 history records