Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T13:07:48+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
95 0x95aa…0874 other 174 markets active 1h ago coverage 164d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$14 (-0%) realized −$14 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate7%12W / 161L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$40per market
Trades / day3.3pace
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$33now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 26% −$3
sports 22% −$3
politics 20% −$2
world 10% −$2
crypto 8% −$2
culture 7% −$1
economics 5% −$1
tech 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 2 -0.4% -9.9% 0% 0% -9.9%
≤90d 3 -0.5% -10.0% 0% 0% -10.0%
all 173 -0.2% -9.7% 7% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 37% · top 2 66% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.95 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.1 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

164d coverage
Net worth$33
Realized−$14
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)7%
Wins / losses12 / 161
Open positions1
Markets (closed)173 / 174
History coverage164d
Avg bet$40
Trades / day3.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 173 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 US Presidential Election? No 98¢ 98¢ $33 $33 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 14 $34 $0 -0%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 31 $67 $0 -0%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 18 $38 $0 -1%
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? Mar 02 $243 $0 -0%
Will Ukraine win Eurovision 2026? Mar 01 $47 $0 -0%
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win the 2027 NFL league championship? Mar 01 $39 $0 -0%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 01 $88 $0 -0%
Will the Minnesota Wild win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Mar 01 $72 $0 -1%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 01 $85 $0 -0%
Will Chelsea win the 2025–26 Champions League? Mar 01 $76 $0 -0%
Will Hamnet win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? Mar 01 $211 −$1 -0%
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Mar 01 $105 $0 -0%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 01 $178 $0 -0%
Will Kansas win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? Mar 01 $43 $0 -0%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2026 World Series? Mar 01 $122 $0 -0%
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Mar 01 $121 $0 -0%
Will UNRWA win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Mar 01 $94 $0 -0%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Mar 01 $94 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Clippers win the NBA Western Conference Finals? Mar 01 $38 $0 -0%
Will the Houston Astros win the 2026 World Series? Mar 01 $44 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2026? Mar 01 $153 $0 +0%
Will Sarah Knafo win the 2027 French presidential election? Feb 28 $53 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Feb 28 $14 $0 -0%
Will the Pittsburgh Penguins win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Feb 28 $18 $0 -0%
Will Bulgaria win Eurovision 2026? Feb 28 $55 $0 -0%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Feb 28 $24 $0 -0%
Will Marty Supreme win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? Feb 28 $55 $0 -0%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Feb 27 $40 $0 -0%
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Feb 27 $49 $0 -0%
Will the Toronto Raptors win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals? Feb 27 $43 −$1 -2%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Feb 27 $46 $0 -0%
Will the US next strike Iran on March 5, 2026 (ET)? Feb 27 $48 $0 -0%
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair? Feb 27 $114 $0 -0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Feb 27 $134 $0 -0%
US strikes Iran by February 27, 2026? Feb 27 $40 $0 -0%
Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Feb 27 $151 +$1 +0%
Will the Vegas Golden Knights win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Feb 27 $97 $0 -0%
Will Italy win Eurovision 2026? Feb 26 $40 $0 -0%
Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair? Feb 26 $106 $0 -0%
Will the US next strike Iran on March 2, 2026 (ET)? Feb 26 $93 −$1 -1%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Feb 26 $73 $0 -0%
Will the Milwaukee Brewers win the 2026 World Series? Feb 26 $47 $0 -0%
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2026 World Series? Feb 26 $96 $0 -0%
Will Luka Doncic win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? Feb 26 $134 $0 -0%
Will the Detroit Lions win the 2027 NFL league championship? Feb 25 $49 $0 -0%
Will France win Eurovision 2026? Feb 25 $39 $0 -0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Feb 25 $92 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Feb 25 $97 $0 -0%
Will the Kansas City Chiefs win the 2027 NFL league championship? Feb 25 $38 $0 -0%
Will the US next strike Iran on March 8, 2026 (ET)? Feb 25 $46 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 98¢ $33 1h
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 96¢ $34 10d
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 97¢ $34 11d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 96¢ $40 24d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 96¢ $40 24d
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 93¢ $38 38d
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 94¢ $38 38d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? SELL No 96¢ $47 115d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? BUY No 96¢ $47 115d
Will Ukraine win Eurovision 2026? SELL No 98¢ $47 115d
Will Ukraine win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 98¢ $47 115d
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 97¢ $39 115d
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 97¢ $39 115d
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 98¢ $42 115d
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 98¢ $42 115d
Will the Minnesota Wild win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? SELL No 94¢ $47 115d
Will the Minnesota Wild win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? BUY No 94¢ $47 115d
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 91¢ $45 115d
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 91¢ $45 115d
Will Chelsea win the 2025–26 Champions League? SELL No 97¢ $45 115d
Will Chelsea win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY No 97¢ $46 115d
Will Hamnet win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? SELL No 97¢ $42 116d
Will Hamnet win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? BUY No 97¢ $42 116d
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 98¢ $42 116d
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 98¢ $42 116d
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 96¢ $42 116d
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 96¢ $42 116d
Will Kansas win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? SELL No 97¢ $0 116d
Will Kansas win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? SELL No 97¢ $43 116d
Will Kansas win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? BUY No 97¢ $43 116d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $33.03 · official $33.03 (match) · 638 history records