Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T20:50:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
95 0x95a6…b568 other 29 markets active 1h ago coverage 261d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$213 (+9%) realized +$242 · open −$29
Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR26%break-even
Win rate26%7W / 20L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$86per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit7%portable
Net worth$81now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$515
7 days+$417
14 days+$218
30 days+$218
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 93% +$158
sports 7% −$29
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +26%
net ROI/market (all)-20.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 +22.5% +10.9% 36% 36% +31.5%
≤30d 23 -10.1% -18.7% 30% 30% +0.1%
≤90d 23 -10.1% -18.7% 30% 30% +0.1%
all 27 -12.0% -20.3% 26% 26% -3.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -20.3% 26% -3.5%
10% -28.0% 26% -12.7%
15% -34.9% 22% -21.1%
20% -41.3% 19% -28.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 48% · top 2 64% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +11% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -12% · $-wt +7% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -21% → late -3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$121 vs −$35 · ×3.51 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.23 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

261d coverage
Net worth$81
Realized+$242
Unrealized−$29
Win rate (resolved)26%
Wins / losses7 / 20
Open positions2
Markets (closed)27 / 29
History coverage261d
Avg bet$86
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit7%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 27 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Kai Havertz: 1+ goals Yes 36¢ 26¢ $62 $45 −$17 (-28%)
Enner Valencia: 1+ goals Yes 25¢ 19¢ $48 $36 −$12 (-24%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 11 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 25 $5 $0 -9%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 25 $50 −$8 -16%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 25 $403 −$50 -12%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $10 −$10 -98%
Son Heungmin: 1+ goals Jun 24 $10 −$10 -98%
Adam Hložek: 1+ goals Jun 24 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $102 +$25 +24%
Ismael Saibari: 1+ goals Jun 24 $31 +$37 +121%
Vinícius Júnior: 1+ goals Jun 24 $102 +$134 +132%
Johan Manzambi: 1+ goals Jun 24 $100 +$408 +409%
Folarin Balogun: 1+ goals Jun 19 $100 −$98 -98%
Julián Quiñones: 1+ goals Jun 18 $102 −$100 -98%
Dan Ndoye: 1+ goals Jun 18 $102 −$100 -98%
Adam Hložek: 1+ goals Jun 18 $63 −$54 -86%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $220 +$94 +43%
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $345 −$11 -3%
Luis Suárez: 1+ goals Jun 17 $51 −$50 -98%
Eldor Shomurodov: 1+ goals Jun 17 $14 −$14 -98%
Harry Kane: 1+ goals Jun 17 $109 +$124 +114%
Bruno Fernandes: 1+ assists Jun 17 $62 −$61 -98%
Désiré Doué: 1+ goals Jun 16 $49 −$49 -100%
Alexander Sørloth: 1+ goals Jun 16 $7 −$7 -98%
Kylian Mbappé: 1+ goals Jun 16 $18 +$29 +157%
Maduro out in 2025? Oct 13 $25 −$6 -24%
Will Erling Haaland be the top goal scorer in the 2025–26 English Prem Oct 13 $71 −$24 -33%
Will Hyperliquid hit $70 in 2025? Oct 07 $96 −$25 -26%
Lions vs. Chiefs Oct 07 $100 −$6 -6%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Enner Valencia: 1+ goals BUY Yes 25¢ $49 1h
Kai Havertz: 1+ goals BUY Yes 36¢ $63 1h
Enner Valencia: 1+ goals SELL Yes 26¢ $33 1h
Enner Valencia: 1+ goals BUY Yes 25¢ $33 5h
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $5 6h
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $9 6h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $20 6h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $11 8h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 21¢ $10 20h
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $5 20h
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $10 20h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $10 20h
Son Heungmin: 1+ goals BUY Yes 41¢ $10 21h
Adam Hložek: 1+ goals BUY Yes 18¢ $10 21h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 60¢ $126 21h
Ismael Saibari: 1+ goals SELL Yes 99¢ $67 22h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 47¢ $102 22h
Ismael Saibari: 1+ goals BUY Yes 44¢ $31 22h
Vinícius Júnior: 1+ goals SELL Yes 99¢ $236 22h
Vinícius Júnior: 1+ goals BUY Yes 42¢ $102 23h
Johan Manzambi: 1+ goals SELL Yes 99¢ $508 24h
Johan Manzambi: 1+ goals BUY Yes 19¢ $100 27h
Folarin Balogun: 1+ goals BUY Yes 40¢ $100 6d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $99 6d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $117 7d
Julián Quiñones: 1+ goals BUY Yes 28¢ $102 7d
Dan Ndoye: 1+ goals BUY Yes 27¢ $102 7d
Adam Hložek: 1+ goals SELL Yes 80¢ $7 7d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 73¢ $0 7d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 73¢ $314 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $81.22 · official $82.94 · 116 history records