Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T04:35:48+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
95 0x9591…3f1f crypto 104 markets active 0h ago coverage 111d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$465 (-4%) realized −$465 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -28% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -35% what you keep after slip
Net edge-35%after slip
Net WR31%break-even
Win rate45%47W / 57L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$115per market
Trades / day1.7pace
Fees−$88est.
Kalshi-fit82%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$317
7 days+$48
14 days−$473
30 days−$473
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 64% −$401
other 29% −$40
crypto 4% −$137
finance 2% −$168
world 1% −$59
culture 0% +$1
politics 0% −$1
tech 0% −$9
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)-35.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 44 -10.8% -19.3% 55% 36% -9.1%
≤30d 53 -11.9% -20.3% 57% 34% -13.4%
≤90d 88 -32.7% -39.1% 43% 27% -15.9%
all 104 -28.4% -35.2% 45% 31% -15.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -35.2% 31% -15.7%
10% -41.4% 20% -23.8%
15% -47.1% 13% -31.1%
20% -52.2% 12% -37.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 39% · top 2 47% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
32% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -28% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -44% → late -13% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$39 vs −$47 · ×0.84 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.69 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

111d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$465
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses47 / 57
Est. fees paid−$88
Open positions0
Markets (closed)104 / 104
History coverage111d
Avg bet$115
Trades / day1.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit82%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 104 Trades
no open positions (19 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Egypt vs. IR Iran end in a draw? Jun 27 $336 −$106 -32%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $406 −$82 -20%
Will Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? Jun 27 $366 +$53 +14%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $204 −$113 -55%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $0 $0 -97%
Will France win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $399 +$79 +20%
Paraguay vs. Australia: Neither team to score first? Jun 26 $1,315 −$948 -72%
Japan vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score Jun 26 $610 +$713 +117%
Will Japan vs. Sweden end in a draw? Jun 25 $1 $0 -5%
Will Ecuador vs. Germany end in a draw? Jun 25 $547 +$87 +16%
Mexico to score first vs. Czechia? Jun 25 $101 +$33 +33%
Will Morocco vs. Haiti end in a draw? Jun 24 $422 +$92 +22%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $51 −$34 -66%
Morocco vs. Haiti: Both Teams to Score Jun 24 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $461 +$5 +1%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $426 +$35 +8%
Switzerland vs. Canada: Neither team to score first? Jun 24 $421 +$4 +1%
Canada to score first vs. Switzerland? Jun 24 $102 −$36 -35%
Colombia to score first vs. DR Congo? Jun 24 $343 +$114 +33%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $317 +$26 +8%
Panama vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score Jun 24 $102 −$82 -80%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $21 −$20 -98%
Panama vs. Croatia: Neither team to score first? Jun 24 $398 $0 -0%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: Both Teams to Score Jun 23 $385 +$34 +9%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $374 +$10 +3%
Portugal to score first vs. Uzbekistan? Jun 23 $331 +$43 +13%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $299 +$32 +11%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $51 −$51 -100%
Jordan vs. Algeria: Neither team to score first? Jun 23 $350 $0 +0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? Jun 23 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Jordan Bardella win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 23 $10 −$1 -13%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $202 +$148 +73%
Norway to score first vs. Senegal? Jun 23 $80 +$5 +6%
Argentina vs. Austria: Both Teams to Score Jun 22 $174 +$23 +13%
New Zealand vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score Jun 22 $38 +$10 +25%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $116 −$78 -68%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $51 −$5 -9%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Both Teams to Score Jun 21 $101 +$21 +21%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $11 −$11 -97%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $86 +$25 +29%
Germany to score first vs. Côte d'Ivoire? Jun 20 $101 −$98 -98%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $101 +$71 +70%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $35 +$79 +226%
Brazil vs. Haiti: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $25 +$9 +34%
Scotland vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $25 +$1 +5%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $24 +$1 +3%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $106 −$81 -77%
Canada vs. Qatar: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $106 +$10 +10%
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 16? Jun 17 $72 −$70 -96%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Egypt vs. IR Iran end in a draw? SELL No 47¢ $229 11m
Will Egypt vs. IR Iran end in a draw? BUY No 67¢ $336 1h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? SELL Yes 38¢ $324 1h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 46¢ $406 1h
Will Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $418 2h
Will Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? BUY Yes 87¢ $366 2h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26? SELL Yes 15¢ $91 2h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 32¢ $204 4h
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 8h
Will France win on 2026-06-26? SELL Yes 88¢ $478 9h
Will France win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 73¢ $399 9h
Paraguay vs. Australia: Neither team to score first? SELL No 17¢ $321 24h
Paraguay vs. Australia: Neither team to score first? SELL No 19¢ $46 24h
Paraguay vs. Australia: Neither team to score first? BUY No 61¢ $1,315 26h
Japan vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 100¢ $1,323 28h
Japan vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 45¢ $610 28h
Will Japan vs. Sweden end in a draw? SELL Yes 32¢ $1 29h
Will Japan vs. Sweden end in a draw? BUY Yes 33¢ $1 29h
Will Ecuador vs. Germany end in a draw? SELL No 87¢ $634 30h
Will Ecuador vs. Germany end in a draw? BUY No 74¢ $547 32h
Mexico to score first vs. Czechia? SELL Yes 99¢ $112 2d
Mexico to score first vs. Czechia? SELL Yes 49¢ $22 2d
Mexico to score first vs. Czechia? BUY Yes 63¢ $101 2d
Will Morocco vs. Haiti end in a draw? SELL No 90¢ $514 2d
Will Morocco vs. Haiti end in a draw? BUY No 73¢ $422 2d
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 11¢ $17 2d
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 31¢ $51 2d
Morocco vs. Haiti: Both Teams to Score BUY No 16¢ $10 2d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 91¢ $466 2d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 90¢ $461 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 223 history records