Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T13:46:59+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
95 0x958f…a83c other 645 markets active 1h ago coverage 409d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$11,119 (-9%) realized −$11,121 · open +$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate58%368W / 263L
Whale WR72%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$188per market
Trades / day4.9pace
Fees−$49est.
Kalshi-fit58%portable
Net worth$1,254now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$755
7 days−$792
14 days−$884
30 days−$1,892
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 42% +$2,316
world 33% −$10,438
sports 8% −$1,458
politics 8% +$189
crypto 6% −$1,980
tech 2% +$39
culture 1% −$12
weather 0% −$92
economics 0% +$256
finance 0% −$25
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-11.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 30 -21.4% -28.9% 40% 37% -26.9%
≤30d 39 -24.7% -31.9% 41% 36% -35.7%
≤90d 67 -15.1% -23.2% 46% 42% -18.0%
all 631 -2.1% -11.4% 58% 43% -18.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.4% 43% -18.0%
10% -19.9% 35% -25.9%
15% -27.6% 28% -33.0%
20% -34.7% 21% -39.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 10% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -9% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
27% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 72% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -1% → late -3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$64 vs −$133 · ×0.48 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.68 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

409d coverage
Net worth$1,254
Realized−$11,121
Unrealized+$2
Win rate (resolved)58%
Wins / losses368 / 263
Whale WR (big bets)72%
Est. fees paid−$49
Open positions11
Markets (closed)631 / 645
History coverage409d
Avg bet$188
Trades / day4.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit58%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 11 History 631 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Team Falcons 60¢ 60¢ $305 $302 −$3 (-1%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 20¢ $165 $201 +$36 (+22%)
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports (BO5) - VCT Masters London Playoffs Paper Rex 66¢ 66¢ $201 $199 −$2 (-1%)
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Yes 67¢ 68¢ $130 $131 +$0 (+0%)
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Yes 60¢ 62¢ $96 $98 +$2 (+2%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 6¢ 6¢ $104 $98 −$6 (-6%)
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Yes 69¢ 68¢ $70 $69 −$1 (-1%)
Will France win on 2026-06-22? Yes 90¢ 90¢ $50 $50 +$0 (+1%)
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-22? Yes 32¢ 30¢ $50 $46 −$4 (-8%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 7¢ $58 $38 −$21 (-35%)
Will Austria win on 2026-06-22? Yes 15¢ 14¢ $22 $20 −$2 (-10%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 183 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo Jun 20 $341 +$457 +134%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $131 +$72 +55%
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele Jun 20 $442 $0 -0%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo Jun 20 $305 −$299 -98%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $61 −$60 -99%
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 20 $212 −$208 -98%
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 20 $268 +$5 +2%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $772 −$522 -68%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla Jun 19 $74 −$72 -98%
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Paper Rex (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof Jun 19 $50 +$16 +32%
Exact Score: Türkiye 2 - 0 Paraguay? Jun 19 $2 −$2 -100%
Valorant: Team Vitality vs Leviatán Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Jun 19 $144 −$142 -99%
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? Jun 19 $26 −$25 -98%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $31 −$30 -98%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $101 +$29 +29%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $77 +$43 +55%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $72 +$28 +40%
Valorant: Division One vs Team Evictix (BO3) - VCL North America: Stag Jun 18 $49 +$161 +327%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $81 +$119 +146%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 17 $134 −$132 -99%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $34 −$34 -98%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $73 −$72 -98%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $142 −$141 -99%
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $110 −$106 -97%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 16 $25 −$25 -99%
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 16 $19 −$19 -98%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $306 +$153 +50%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $36 +$34 +93%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $136 −$133 -98%
Valorant: G2 Esports vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playoff Jun 14 $123 +$114 +93%
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Play Jun 13 $128 −$127 -99%
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.0T by December 31? Jun 11 $93 +$35 +38%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 02 $206 −$204 -99%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? Jun 02 $400 +$293 +73%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24? May 30 $300 +$4 +1%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 31? May 25 $748 −$748 -100%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 28? May 25 $195 −$195 -100%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Movistar KOI (BO5) - LEC Playoffs May 25 $238 −$236 -99%
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-05-20? May 22 $121 +$79 +65%
Will Beşiktaş JK vs. Trabzonspor end in a draw? May 20 $21 −$21 -100%
Will Trabzonspor win on 2026-05-09? May 20 $57 +$143 +250%
Will Galatasaray SK win on 2026-05-09? May 20 $517 +$263 +51%
Will Galatasaray SK win on 2026-05-17? May 16 $142 −$139 -98%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-05-06? May 06 $27 −$27 -100%
Will Manchester United FC vs. Liverpool FC end in a draw? May 03 $48 −$48 -99%
Will Galatasaray SK win on 2026-05-02? May 02 $197 −$196 -100%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? May 02 $146 +$54 +37%
Will Trabzonspor win on 2026-04-27? Apr 27 $230 −$226 -98%
Will Fenerbahçe SK win on 2026-04-26? Apr 27 $265 +$110 +42%
Will Galatasaray SK win on 2026-04-26? Apr 27 $630 +$844 +134%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 69¢ $71 1h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 68¢ $50 1h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof BUY Team Falcons 60¢ $309 1h
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports (BO5) - VCT Masters London Pla BUY Paper Rex 66¢ $203 1h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo BUY Team Falcons 42¢ $341 21h
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele SELL Yes 89¢ $342 21h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo BUY Aurora Gaming 23¢ $41 23h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo BUY Aurora Gaming 20¢ $58 23h
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele SELL Yes 88¢ $43 23h
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele SELL Yes 88¢ $57 23h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 55¢ $61 34h
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 25¢ $212 34h
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 92¢ $273 34h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 47¢ $41 38h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla BUY Vitality 29¢ $74 39h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo BUY Aurora Gaming 43¢ $206 40h
Exact Score: Türkiye 2 - 0 Paraguay? BUY Yes 9¢ $1 45h
Exact Score: Türkiye 2 - 0 Paraguay? BUY Yes 9¢ $1 45h
Exact Score: Türkiye 2 - 0 Paraguay? BUY Yes 9¢ $1 45h
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 89¢ $8 45h
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 89¢ $9 45h
Valorant: Team Vitality vs Leviatán Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London BUY Team Vitality 55¢ $11 45h
Valorant: Team Vitality vs Leviatán Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London BUY Team Vitality 55¢ $11 45h
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 89¢ $26 45h
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 90¢ $225 45h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 32¢ $51 2d
Will France win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 90¢ $50 2d
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $26 2d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 17¢ $10 2d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 64¢ $131 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,253.77 · official $1,253.77 (match) · 2503 history records