Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T13:37:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

95
0x958d…3501
sports · 477 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$12,714 -17%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$5,019 · open +$18
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$8,009
Realized+$5,019
Unrealized+$18
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses224 / 233
Whale WR (big bets)59%
Est. fees paid−$175
Open positions31
Markets (closed)457 / 477
History coverage42d
Avg bet$154
Trades / day81.0
Drawdown28%
Kalshi-fit69%
Chart Positions 31 History 457 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$216
7 days−$501
14 days+$559
30 days+$1,781
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Trump be impeached before his term ends? Yes 62¢ 66¢ $2,681 $2,831 +$150 (+6%)
Will Alibaba have the best Chinese AI model at the end of June 2026? Yes 78¢ 72¢ $861 $797 −$64 (-7%)
Will Bruno Fernandes win the 2026 PFA Player of the Year? Yes 54¢ 76¢ $492 $698 +$206 (+42%)
Will Trump sell 1-100 Gold Cards in 2026? Yes 69¢ 73¢ $421 $450 +$29 (+7%)
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 15, 2026? No 75¢ 76¢ $381 $391 +$10 (+3%)
Will the United States send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by June 30, 2026? No 73¢ 62¢ $339 $291 −$48 (-14%)
Will England win Group L in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 69¢ 72¢ $221 $230 +$9 (+4%)
Will Belgium win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 68¢ 69¢ $221 $226 +$5 (+2%)
Will Igor Thiago score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 67¢ 70¢ $201 $212 +$11 (+5%)
Will Rayan Cherki score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 62¢ 64¢ $201 $207 +$6 (+3%)
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? Yes 56¢ 27¢ $421 $203 −$218 (-52%)
Another US debt downgrade before 2027? Yes 50¢ 31¢ $303 $188 −$115 (-38%)
Will Nicolas Pépé score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 31¢ 48¢ $101 $159 +$58 (+58%)
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? No 77¢ 94¢ $131 $158 +$27 (+21%)
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 22, 2026? Yes 59¢ 60¢ $151 $154 +$3 (+2%)
Will Matheus Cunha score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 62¢ 38¢ $171 $106 −$65 (-38%)
Will France reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 59¢ 60¢ $101 $103 +$2 (+2%)
Will JD Vance sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? Yes 59¢ 60¢ $101 $101 +$0 (+0%)
Will Spain reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 45¢ 45¢ $100 $101 +$0 (+0%)
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026? Yes 58¢ 57¢ $101 $99 −$2 (-2%)
Will England reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 57¢ 56¢ $101 $98 −$3 (-3%)
Will Mohamed Salah score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 24¢ 32¢ $39 $51 +$12 (+31%)
Will Julio Enciso score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 19¢ 26¢ $36 $48 +$12 (+34%)
Will the United Arab Emirates send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by June 30, 2026? No 89¢ 80¢ $50 $45 −$5 (-11%)
Will Lionel Messi score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 17¢ 14¢ $39 $33 −$6 (-15%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will 1. FC Heidenheim 1846 win on 2026-05-02? Jun 14 $30 −$30 -100%
Spread: Arsenal FC (-2.5) Jun 14 $30 −$30 -100%
Will Manchester United FC vs. Liverpool FC end in a draw? Jun 14 $11 −$11 -100%
CA Osasuna vs. FC Barcelona: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $60 −$60 -100%
Leeds United FC vs. Burnley FC: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $30 −$40 -133%
Villarreal CF vs. Levante UD: O/U 4.5 Jun 14 $15 −$15 -100%
Leeds United FC vs. Burnley FC: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-05-03? Jun 14 $20 −$20 -100%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 Jun 14 $398 −$99 -25%
Will Switzerland win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $224 −$45 -20%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 14 $1,967 −$324 -16%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $92 −$9 -10%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $50 +$10 +20%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 12.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $30 +$10 +32%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $71 +$40 +57%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $30 +$17 +55%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $102 +$33 +32%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $62 +$29 +48%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 4.5 Jun 14 $80 +$14 +18%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $91 −$24 -27%
Will Brazil reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $103 −$4 -4%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $30 +$11 +36%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 11.5 Total Corners Jun 13 $234 +$149 +64%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 13 $22 +$18 +84%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? Jun 13 $1,284 +$32 +2%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 13 $2,024 +$238 +12%
Will Antoine Semenyo score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $72 +$17 +23%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? Jun 13 $339 −$2 -0%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 12 $102 −$101 -99%
Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by June 30? Jun 12 $1,188 +$33 +3%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 12 $1,624 −$129 -8%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 11 $103 −$102 -99%
Will Virgil van Dijk score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $10 −$1 -11%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 9? Jun 10 $110 −$5 -4%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? Jun 09 $221 −$10 -4%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 09 $630 −$32 -5%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 09 $550 −$49 -9%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 09 $636 +$48 +8%
Exact Score: Mexico 1 - 0 South Africa? Jun 08 $30 −$29 -98%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 08 $31 −$2 -6%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 08 $62 −$1 -2%
Will Leandro Trossard score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 08 $133 +$31 +24%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 08 $402 −$8 -2%
Will Mexico vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 08 $30 −$3 -9%
Will South Korea win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 08 $240 −$28 -12%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-07? Jun 08 $20 +$4 +20%
Will Spain reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 07 $102 −$7 -7%
Will Morocco vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 07 $20 +$6 +31%
Croatia vs. Slovenia: O/U 3.5 Jun 07 $20 +$5 +27%
Morocco vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 Jun 07 $30 +$7 +24%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
world 52% +$1,447
sports 19% +$1,853
other 18% +$141
politics 6% +$1,488
tech 3% +$319
finance 3% +$14
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 76¢ $50 27m
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 SELL Yes 17¢ $32 29m
Will Switzerland win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 46¢ $178 32m
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 58¢ $101 36m
Will JD Vance sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? BUY Yes 59¢ $101 39m
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 22, 2026? BUY Yes 62¢ $50 48m
Will Alibaba have the best Chinese AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY Yes 75¢ $30 51m
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 22, 2026? BUY Yes 57¢ $101 53m
Will Alibaba have the best Chinese AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY Yes 77¢ $10 1h
Will Trump sell 1-100 Gold Cards in 2026? BUY Yes 76¢ $10 1h
Will the United States send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by J BUY No 77¢ $1 1h
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL No 40¢ $697 1h
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 9.5 Total Corners SELL Over 55¢ $83 1h
Will the United States send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by J SELL No 75¢ $66 1h
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Over 59¢ $92 7h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? BUY Yes 50¢ $20 7h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 BUY Yes 34¢ $10 7h
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 12.5 Total Corners BUY Over 75¢ $30 8h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 83¢ $50 8h
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 10.5 Total Corners BUY Over 63¢ $71 9h
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 85¢ $80 14h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? SELL No 55¢ $66 14h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY No 77¢ $40 15h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY No 71¢ $50 15h
Will Brazil reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 49¢ $98 15h
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 7.5 Total Corners BUY Over 67¢ $62 15h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 BUY Yes 32¢ $1 15h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 BUY Yes 35¢ $55 16h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? BUY Yes 45¢ $10 16h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? BUY No 92¢ $30 16h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-4.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 62 -13.0% -21.3% 40% 32% -12.4%
≤30d 288 -7.4% -16.2% 44% 36% -6.6%
≤90d 457 +6.1% -4.0% 49% 42% -2.7%
all 457 +6.1% -4.0% 49% 42% -2.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover81.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -4.0% 42% -2.7%
10% ← realistic here -13.2% 32% -12.0%
15% -21.6% 21% -20.5%
20% -29.3% 15% -28.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $8,009.04 · official $8,026.26 (match) · 3500 history records