Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T06:05:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
95 0x9587…408c sports 152 markets active 2h ago coverage 181d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$6,412 (+10%) realized +$6,707 · open −$295
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR51%break-even
Win rate61%91W / 59L
Whale WR74%big bets
Drawdown54%max
Avg bet$438per market
Trades / day5.1pace
Fees−$1,314est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$73now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$142
7 days+$159
14 days+$657
30 days+$1,348
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 99% +$5,862
other 1% −$415
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +51%
net ROI/market (all)-3.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +106.0% +86.4% 100% 100% +102.8%
≤30d 22 +28.6% +16.3% 77% 73% +7.3%
≤90d 113 +13.0% +2.3% 65% 55% -1.6%
all 150 +6.4% -3.8% 61% 51% -0.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -3.8% 51% -0.7%
10% -13.0% 43% -10.2%
15% -21.4% 35% -18.9%
20% -29.1% 29% -26.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 10% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +8% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
15% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +6% · $-wt +9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 74% (≥$656) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +11% → late +1% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
3.6 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$250 vs −$288 · ×0.87 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.34 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

181d coverage
Net worth$73
Realized+$6,707
Unrealized−$295
Win rate (resolved)61%
Wins / losses91 / 59
Whale WR (big bets)74%
Est. fees paid−$1,314
Open positions2
Markets (closed)150 / 152
History coverage181d
Avg bet$438
Trades / day5.1
Drawdown54%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 150 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Hanwha Life Esports win the LCK 2026 season playoffs? Yes 18¢ 21¢ $61 $73 +$11 (+18%)
LoL: T1 vs Karmine Corp - Game 2 Winner Karmine Corp 45¢ 0¢ $307 $0 −$306 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 39 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
LoL: T1 vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner Jun 28 $107 +$142 +133%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $20 +$16 +79%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof Jun 21 $388 +$165 +43%
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports (BO5) - VCT Masters London Pla Jun 21 $202 +$273 +135%
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 1 Winner Jun 21 $87 +$45 +51%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo Jun 20 $1,009 +$4 +0%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo Jun 20 $50 +$11 +21%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $610 −$432 -71%
LoL: Team Liquid vs Cloud9 - Game 3 Winner Jun 13 $305 −$300 -98%
LoL: Team Liquid vs Cloud9 (BO5) - LCS Playoffs Jun 13 $507 −$500 -99%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 4 Winner Jun 13 $740 +$99 +13%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 13 $710 +$394 +56%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 2 Winner Jun 13 $100 +$16 +16%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 08 $101 +$46 +46%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Karmine Corp (BO5) - LEC Playoffs Jun 07 $999 +$338 +34%
LoL: KT Rolster vs Dplus KIA (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 07 $604 +$539 +89%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 06 $94 +$34 +36%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 03 $101 −$100 -99%
LoL: ThunderTalk Gaming vs LGD Gaming - Game 4 Winner Jun 02 $51 −$50 -98%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Team WE - Game 3 Winner Jun 01 $224 +$276 +124%
LoL: Team Secret Whales vs Deep Cross Gaming - Game 2 Winner May 31 $153 +$316 +206%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs EDward Gaming - Game 3 Winner May 30 $85 +$15 +18%
LoL: Dplus KIA vs Kiwoom DRX (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 29 $404 +$230 +57%
LoL: JD Gaming vs ThunderTalk Gaming - Game 2 Winner May 29 $145 −$25 -17%
LoL: DN SOOPers vs Nongshim Red Force - Game 2 Winner May 28 $101 +$48 +48%
LoL: Gen.G vs Hanwha Life Esports - Game 1 Winner May 27 $102 +$121 +119%
LoL: Dplus KIA vs Hanwha Life Esports - Game 3 Winner May 26 $203 −$200 -98%
LoL: Dplus KIA vs T1 - Game 3 Winner May 25 $478 +$22 +4%
LoL: HANJIN BRION vs T1 - Game 1 Winner May 24 $130 −$130 -100%
LoL: Nongshim Red Force vs Hanwha Life Esports (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 23 $617 +$383 +62%
LoL: Invictus Gaming vs ThunderTalk Gaming - Game 2 Winner May 23 $315 −$315 -100%
LoL: Team WE vs LNG Esports - Game 1 Winner May 23 $926 −$915 -99%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Weibo Gaming - Game 2 Winner May 22 $1,250 −$1,250 -100%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Weibo Gaming - Game 1 Winner May 22 $520 −$364 -70%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Anyone's Legend - Game 1 Winner May 21 $1,281 −$1,280 -100%
LoL: Nongshim Red Force vs KT Rolster - Game 2 Winner May 20 $280 +$720 +257%
LoL: Nongshim Red Force vs KT Rolster (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 20 $310 −$305 -98%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs HANJIN BRION - Game 2 Winner May 19 $256 −$250 -98%
LoL: KT Rolster vs HANJIN BRION - Game 1 Winner May 18 $457 +$393 +86%
LoL: KT Rolster vs HANJIN BRION - Game 2 Winner May 18 $294 +$30 +10%
LoL: Karmine Corp vs Movistar KOI - Game 4 Winner May 17 $1,155 +$605 +52%
LoL: Karmine Corp vs Movistar KOI (BO5) - Esports World Cup EMEA Quali May 17 $53 −$36 -69%
LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs Anyone's Legend - Game 2 Winner May 17 $975 +$525 +54%
LoL: Karmine Corp vs Movistar KOI - Game 3 Winner May 17 $1,953 −$545 -28%
LoL: Karmine Corp vs Movistar KOI - Game 2 Winner May 17 $948 −$247 -26%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Karmine Corp - Game 3 Winner May 17 $959 +$501 +52%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs KT Rolster - Game 2 Winner May 17 $858 +$286 +33%
LoL: Team WE vs Ninjas in Pyjamas (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend May 17 $1 $0 +33%
LoL: Team WE vs Ninjas in Pyjamas - Game 1 Winner May 16 $599 +$273 +46%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Karmine Corp - Game 2 Winner May 16 $1,024 +$280 +27%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
LoL: T1 vs Karmine Corp - Game 2 Winner BUY Karmine Corp 28¢ $109 1h
LoL: T1 vs Karmine Corp - Game 2 Winner BUY Karmine Corp 69¢ $202 1h
LoL: T1 vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner BUY T1 43¢ $27 25h
LoL: T1 vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner BUY T1 43¢ $38 25h
LoL: T1 vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner BUY T1 43¢ $43 25h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 55¢ $20 2d
Will Hanwha Life Esports win the LCK 2026 season playoffs? BUY Yes 18¢ $3 6d
Will Hanwha Life Esports win the LCK 2026 season playoffs? BUY Yes 18¢ $5 6d
Will Hanwha Life Esports win the LCK 2026 season playoffs? BUY Yes 18¢ $4 6d
Will Hanwha Life Esports win the LCK 2026 season playoffs? BUY Yes 18¢ $12 6d
Will Hanwha Life Esports win the LCK 2026 season playoffs? BUY Yes 18¢ $18 6d
Will Hanwha Life Esports win the LCK 2026 season playoffs? BUY Yes 18¢ $18 6d
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports (BO5) - VCT Masters London Pla SELL Leviatán Esports 95¢ $475 7d
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports (BO5) - VCT Masters London Pla BUY Leviatán Esports 40¢ $40 7d
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports (BO5) - VCT Masters London Pla BUY Leviatán Esports 40¢ $162 7d
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof BUY Team Falcons 70¢ $186 7d
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof BUY Team Falcons 69¢ $202 7d
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 1 Winner SELL T1 Academy 88¢ $132 7d
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 1 Winner BUY T1 Academy 58¢ $87 7d
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 1 Winner BUY T1 Academy 58¢ $0 7d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo BUY Team Falcons 90¢ $301 8d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo SELL Spirit 56¢ $13 8d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo SELL Spirit 56¢ $399 8d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo BUY Spirit 39¢ $100 8d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo BUY Spirit 62¢ $303 8d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo SELL Team Falcons 38¢ $269 8d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo BUY Team Falcons 41¢ $102 8d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo BUY Team Falcons 42¢ $203 8d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo BUY FURIA 82¢ $50 8d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 13¢ $179 15d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $72.88 · official $72.88 (match) · 994 history records