Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T02:43:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
95 0x9583…bd4d crypto 1024 markets active 1h ago coverage 157d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$43 (-1%) realized −$39 · open −$4
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -33% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -44% what you keep after slip
Net edge-44%after slip
Net WR13%break-even
Win rate15%155W / 856L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$4per market
Trades / day16.2pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit65%portable
Net worth$16now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$8
7 days−$90
14 days−$91
30 days−$110
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 44% −$299
other 37% +$722
world 5% −$116
culture 5% −$179
sports 3% −$63
politics 2% −$42
economics 2% −$47
finance 1% −$11
tech 1% −$19
weather 0% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +13%
net ROI/market (all)-39.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 76 +6.6% -3.6% 20% 20% -50.1%
≤30d 100 -10.4% -18.9% 16% 16% -51.2%
≤90d 480 -47.1% -52.2% 12% 10% -58.7%
all 1011 -33.3% -39.7% 15% 13% -31.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover16.2 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -39.7% 13% -31.9%
10% -45.4% 11% -38.4%
15% -50.7% 10% -44.3%
20% -55.5% 9% -49.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 32% · top 2 51% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -56% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
15% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -33% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -18% → late -48% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$20 vs −$4 · ×5.42 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.98 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

157d coverage
Net worth$16
Realized−$39
Unrealized−$4
Win rate (resolved)15%
Wins / losses155 / 856
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions13
Markets (closed)1011 / 1024
History coverage157d
Avg bet$4
Trades / day16.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit65%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 13 History 1011 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will MrBeast's next video get between 48 and 49 million views on day 4? Yes 4¢ 7¢ $2 $3 +$1 (+69%)
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? Yes 10¢ 12¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+10%)
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21? Yes 4¢ 4¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-4%)
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? No 0¢ 0¢ $3 $2 −$1 (-42%)
Will MrBeast's next video get between 50 and 51 million views on day 4? Yes 5¢ 4¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-22%)
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Yes 18¢ 20¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+8%)
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-22? Yes 3¢ 3¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+5%)
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? Yes 10¢ 10¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-5%)
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? Yes 9¢ 8¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-6%)
Will MrBeast's next video get between 40 and 50 million views on week 1? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$0 (-50%)
Will MrBeast's next video get between 51 and 52 million views on day 4? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-67%)
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? Yes 15¢ 2¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-90%)
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? Yes 5¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-97%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 121 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 16 $2 −$1 -49%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $2 −$1 -34%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -98%
Spread: Senegal (-2.5) Jun 16 $1 $0 -43%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 48 and 49 million views on day 3 Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 47 and 48 million views on day 3 Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will MrBeast's next video get less than 45 million views on day 3? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $1 +$1 +138%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 15 $2 +$2 +93%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -55%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $1 +$3 +332%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 15 $3 +$2 +82%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $3 $0 +10%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 45 and 46 million views on day 3 Jun 15 $1 +$3 +271%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $1 +$1 +97%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -97%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $1 +$12 +1182%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -97%
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 22, 2026? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -97%
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Trump speak to Vladimir Putin in June? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 41 and 43 million views on day 2 Jun 15 $1 −$1 -96%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 37 and 39 million views on day 2 Jun 15 $1 −$1 -95%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 43 and 45 million views on day 2 Jun 15 $1 −$1 -95%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $1 +$8 +804%
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 15 $2 +$8 +401%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1 +$1 +97%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Will MrBeast's next video get 45 million or more views on day 2? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -95%
Will "Backrooms" 3rd Weekend Box Office be between 10m and 11m? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -62%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $4 $0 -11%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 14 $2 +$3 +129%
Will "Obsession" 5th Weekend Box Office be less than 15m? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -95%
Will "Obsession" 5th Weekend Box Office be between 15m and 17m? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -95%
Will "Disclosure Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 47m? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $1 +$2 +203%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $4 −$4 -98%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? Jun 13 $1 +$16 +1519%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $3 −$3 -97%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 20 and 25 million views on day 1 Jun 13 $1 −$1 -95%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 40 and 45 million views on day 1 Jun 13 $1 −$1 -95%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 45 and 50 million views on day 1 Jun 13 $1 −$1 -95%
Will MrBeast's next video get 50 million or more views on day 1? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -95%
US forces enter Iran by April 30? Jun 13 $9 −$7 -73%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 1h
Will MrBeast's next video get between 50 and 51 million views on day 4 BUY Yes 3¢ $1 1h
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY Yes 15¢ $1 1h
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? BUY Yes 9¢ $1 3h
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? SELL Yes 8¢ $0 3h
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? SELL Yes 8¢ $0 3h
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? BUY Yes 8¢ $1 4h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 6h
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 19¢ $1 6h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 17¢ $1 6h
Spread: Senegal (-2.5) SELL Senegal 0¢ $1 6h
Will MrBeast's next video get between 48 and 49 million views on day 4 BUY Yes 4¢ $1 6h
Will MrBeast's next video get between 50 and 51 million views on day 4 BUY Yes 10¢ $1 6h
Will MrBeast's next video get between 51 and 52 million views on day 4 BUY Yes 1¢ $1 6h
Will MrBeast's next video get between 48 and 49 million views on day 4 BUY Yes 4¢ $1 6h
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? BUY No 0¢ $1 6h
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? BUY No 0¢ $1 6h
Spread: Senegal (-2.5) BUY Senegal 1¢ $1 8h
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $1 8h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 13¢ $1 8h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 47¢ $2 25h
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? SELL Yes 83¢ $1 26h
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? SELL Yes 84¢ $1 26h
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 33¢ $1 27h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 10¢ $0 27h
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? SELL Yes 32¢ $1 27h
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? SELL Yes 32¢ $1 27h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 54¢ $4 27h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 21¢ $1 27h
Will MrBeast's next video get less than 45 million views on day 3? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 28h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $15.82 · official $15.82 (match) · 3146 history records