Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T09:11:59+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
95 0x9583…fa5d crypto 134 markets active 0h ago coverage 119d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$192 (+14%) realized +$190 · open +$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +13% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +3% what you keep after slip
Net edge+3%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate40%51W / 78L
Drawdown69%max
Avg bet$11per market
Trades / day2.3pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit80%portable
Net worth$35now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$196
7 days+$163
14 days+$163
30 days+$163
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 48% +$197
crypto 36% −$52
sports 16% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)+2.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 128 +14.3% +3.4% 40% 39% +4.1%
≤30d 128 +14.3% +3.4% 40% 39% +4.1%
≤90d 128 +14.3% +3.4% 40% 39% +4.1%
all 129 +13.4% +2.6% 40% 39% +2.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +2.6% 39% +2.6%
10% -7.2% 38% -7.2%
15% -16.2% 35% -16.2%
20% -24.4% 30% -24.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 42% · top 2 49% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +13% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +13% · $-wt +11% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -10% → late +36% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$15 vs −$8 · ×1.89 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.23 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

119d coverage
Net worth$35
Realized+$190
Unrealized+$2
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses51 / 78
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions5
Markets (closed)129 / 134
History coverage119d
Avg bet$11
Trades / day2.3
Drawdown69%
Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 129 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Yes 38¢ 44¢ $14 $16 +$2 (+15%)
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 4.5 Over 31¢ 30¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-2%)
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 5.5 Over 17¢ 18¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+9%)
Exact Score: Spain 2 - 0 Cabo Verde? Yes 15¢ 16¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+3%)
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 1 Cabo Verde? Yes 9¢ 8¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-17%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 69 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 15 $3 $0 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 15 $4 +$2 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 15 $6 −$1 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 15 $6 +$1 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 15 $3 $0 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$3 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 15 $6 −$1 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 15 $6 −$1 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 15 $7 +$5 +64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 15 $6 −$1 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 15 $16 −$15 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +116%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 5.5 Jun 15 $10 −$2 -21%
Exact Score: Sweden 3 - 1 Tunisia? Jun 15 $3 +$13 +413%
Exact Score: Sweden 2 - 0 Tunisia? Jun 15 $5 +$1 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$5 +103%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 15 $7 −$7 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 15 $3 +$15 +465%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 15 $7 +$4 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$10 +186%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 15 $6 +$1 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 15 $11 +$5 +48%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $15 −$14 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$4 +72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 15 $1 +$2 +149%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$4 +72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 14 $6 −$1 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 14 $3 −$2 -63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 14 $5 +$1 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 14 $5 +$3 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$1 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$1 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 14 $3 −$1 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -96%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $10 +$7 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 14 $1 +$11 +1062%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +143%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $31 −$30 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET SELL Up 79¢ $2 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET BUY Up 68¢ $2 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET SELL Up 68¢ $1 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $1 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET SELL Down 72¢ $2 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET BUY Down 33¢ $1 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET SELL Down 31¢ $4 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET BUY Down 18¢ $1 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET BUY Down 19¢ $1 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET BUY Down 32¢ $1 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET BUY Up 28¢ $1 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET SELL Down 66¢ $7 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $5 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET BUY Up 36¢ $1 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET SELL Up 79¢ $7 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $5 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Down 33¢ $1 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET SELL Up 72¢ $2 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Up 32¢ $1 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET SELL Down 59¢ $2 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Down 36¢ $1 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET BUY Up 45¢ $1 36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET SELL Up 88¢ $8 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $5 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET BUY Down 37¢ $1 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET SELL Up 81¢ $9 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET BUY Up 44¢ $5 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET BUY Up 37¢ $5 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET BUY Up 24¢ $1 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET SELL Down 69¢ $7 54m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $35.15 · official $35.15 (match) · 278 history records