Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T10:00:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
95 0x957f…aee0 weather 665 markets active 0h ago coverage 50d ⚠
BOTnot copyable weather specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 49d only
✗ bot/MM pace (68 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$863 (+1%) realized +$914 · open −$51
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -22% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -40% what you keep after slip
Net edge-40%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate52%358W / 325L
Whale WR80%big bets
Drawdown42%max
Avg bet$93per market
Trades / day68.1pace
Fees−$16est.
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$505now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$121
7 days+$25
14 days+$124
30 days+$204
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 88% +$696
other 4% −$105
world 2% −$110
crypto 2% +$7
culture 2% −$7
sports 2% +$55
politics 1% +$9
finance 0% −$12
tech 0% −$4
economics 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (68 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-29.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 109 -34.7% -41.0% 51% 6% -7.5%
≤30d 417 -24.4% -31.6% 53% 5% -8.7%
≤90d 683 -22.0% -29.4% 52% 5% -8.7%
all 683 -22.0% -29.4% 52% 5% -8.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover68.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -29.4% 5% -8.7%
10% ← realistic here -36.2% 2% -17.4%
15% -42.3% 1% -25.4%
20% -48.0% 1% -32.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
91% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -22% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 80% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -15% → late -28% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$3 · ×1.24 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.39 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

50d coverage
Net worth$505
Realized+$914
Unrealized−$51
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses358 / 325
Whale WR (big bets)80%
Est. fees paid−$16
Open positions4
Markets (closed)683 / 665
History coverage50d ⚠
Avg bet$93
Trades / day68.1
Drawdown42%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 683 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 76-77°F on June 16? No 92¢ 80¢ $434 $381 −$53 (-12%)
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 74-75°F on June 16? No 94¢ 95¢ $103 $105 +$2 (+2%)
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 16, 2026? Yes 93¢ 97¢ $15 $16 +$1 (+5%)
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 21°C on June 16? No 93¢ 96¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 150 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 48-49°F on Apr Jun 16 $0 −$1 -1513%
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 70-71°F on April 26? Jun 16 $0 $0 -516%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 3°C on April 27? Jun 16 $0 $0 -100%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 40-41°F on Apr Jun 16 $0 −$3 -6118%
Will the highest temperature in Lagos be 32°C on April 25? Jun 16 $0 $0 -100%
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 72-73°F on April 26? Jun 16 $0 $0 -600%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 29°C on April 21? Jun 16 $1 −$132 -14484%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 12°C on April 26? Jun 16 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 14°C on April 27? Jun 16 $0 $0 -100%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 13°C on April 24? Jun 16 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 21°C on April 24? Jun 16 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 20°C on April 26? Jun 16 $0 $0 -100%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 11°C on April 25? Jun 16 $0 $0 -100%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 46-47°F on Apr Jun 16 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 19°C on April 26? Jun 16 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 28°C on April 26? Jun 16 $0 $0 -100%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 16°C or below on April 24? Jun 16 $0 $0 -100%
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 13°C on April 24? Jun 16 $0 $0 -100%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 42-43°F on Apr Jun 16 $0 −$2 -4406%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 11°C on April 26? Jun 16 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 20°C on April 27? Jun 16 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 15°C on April 27? Jun 16 $0 $0 -100%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on June 16? Jun 16 $283 +$6 +2%
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 78-79°F on June 15? Jun 16 $339 +$5 +1%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 15, 2026? Jun 15 $14 +$1 +8%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 72-73°F on Jun Jun 15 $0 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 76-77°F on June 14? Jun 15 $52 $0 -0%
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 12°C on June 15? Jun 15 $173 +$4 +2%
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 78-79°F on June 14? Jun 15 $225 +$12 +5%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 21°C on June 15? Jun 15 $2 −$1 -58%
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 18°C on June 15? Jun 15 $6 −$1 -22%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on June 15? Jun 15 $34 $0 -1%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on June 15? Jun 14 $2 −$1 -39%
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 80-81°F on June 14? Jun 14 $7 $0 -3%
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 12°C on June 14? Jun 14 $144 +$3 +2%
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 13°C on June 14? Jun 14 $69 +$1 +2%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 13, 2026? Jun 14 $12 +$1 +8%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 14, 2026? Jun 14 $13 +$1 +11%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 66-67°F on Jun Jun 14 $18 +$1 +3%
Will the lowest temperature in London be 11°C on June 14? Jun 14 $59 +$1 +1%
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 78-79°F on June 13? Jun 13 $9 −$2 -27%
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 76-77°F on June 13? Jun 13 $6 $0 +4%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 72-73°F on Jun Jun 13 $95 +$4 +4%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 70-71°F on Jun Jun 13 $61 +$1 +2%
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 14°C on June 13? Jun 13 $36 +$5 +13%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 68-69°F on Jun Jun 13 $69 +$8 +12%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 66-67°F on Jun Jun 13 $90 +$2 +3%
Will the lowest temperature in London be 13°C on June 13? Jun 13 $103 +$1 +1%
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 16°C on June 13? Jun 13 $51 +$1 +2%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 12, 2026? Jun 13 $11 +$1 +6%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 74-75°F on June 16? BUY No 92¢ $5 8m
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 74-75°F on June 16? BUY No 92¢ $5 8m
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 74-75°F on June 16? BUY No 90¢ $43 15m
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 76-77°F on June 16? BUY No 90¢ $6 19m
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 76-77°F on June 16? BUY No 90¢ $9 27m
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 76-77°F on June 16? BUY No 90¢ $45 49m
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 76-77°F on June 16? BUY No 92¢ $369 52m
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 76-77°F on June 16? BUY No 91¢ $7 53m
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 74-75°F on June 16? BUY No 99¢ $11 1h
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 74-75°F on June 16? BUY No 99¢ $15 1h
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 74-75°F on June 16? BUY No 98¢ $5 1h
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 74-75°F on June 16? BUY No 98¢ $20 1h
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 21°C on June 16? SELL No 96¢ $1 2h
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 21°C on June 16? SELL No 96¢ $5 2h
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 21°C on June 16? SELL No 96¢ $6 2h
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 21°C on June 16? SELL No 96¢ $1 2h
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 21°C on June 16? SELL No 96¢ $1 2h
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 21°C on June 16? SELL No 96¢ $1 2h
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 21°C on June 16? SELL No 96¢ $17 4h
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 21°C on June 16? SELL No 96¢ $30 4h
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 21°C on June 16? SELL No 96¢ $24 4h
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on June 16? SELL Yes 96¢ $21 4h
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on June 16? SELL Yes 96¢ $129 4h
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 78-79°F on June 15? SELL Yes 97¢ $139 7h
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 78-79°F on June 15? SELL Yes 97¢ $27 7h
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 78-79°F on June 15? SELL Yes 94¢ $84 10h
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 78-79°F on June 15? SELL Yes 94¢ $94 10h
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 78-79°F on June 15? BUY Yes 94¢ $226 10h
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 78-79°F on June 15? BUY Yes 93¢ $113 10h
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on June 16? BUY Yes 93¢ $5 11h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $504.52 · official $504.52 (match) · 3500 history records