Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T08:00:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
95 0x957d…b7f1 sports 4 markets active 2d ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$56 (+58%) realized +$56 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate50%2W / 2L
Drawdown36%max
Avg bet$24per market
Trades / day4.0pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 89% +$65
other 11% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-10.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -0.7% -10.2% 50% 50% +42.5%
≤30d 4 -0.7% -10.2% 50% 50% +42.5%
≤90d 4 -0.7% -10.2% 50% 50% +42.5%
all 4 -0.7% -10.2% 50% 50% +42.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.2% 50% +42.5%
10% -18.8% 50% +28.8%
15% -26.6% 50% +16.4%
20% -33.8% 50% +5.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 67% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +58% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +58% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$37 vs −$10 · ×3.74 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×3.74 per $1 lost it wins $3.74
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$56
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses2 / 2
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)4 / 4
History coverage1d
Avg bet$24
Trades / day4.0
Drawdown36%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 4 Trades
no open positions (2 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $26 +$24 +96%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $50 +$50 +101%
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 51¢ $26 2d
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 49¢ $50 2d
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? BUY Yes 12¢ $10 2d
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 3¢ $10 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 6 history records