Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T04:21:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
95 0x957a…c0f7 weather 199 markets active 2h ago coverage 600d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$345 (+1%) realized +$334 · open +$11
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate91%170W / 16L
Whale WR83%big bets
Drawdown51%max
Avg bet$150per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Kalshi-fit85%portable
Net worth$1,251now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$6
7 days+$24
14 days+$32
30 days+$68
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 43% +$67
crypto 25% +$381
politics 13% −$39
other 10% +$56
world 5% −$80
tech 1% +$20
sports 1% −$61
economics 0% +$1
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-7.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 13 +0.9% -8.7% 100% 0% -8.8%
≤30d 43 +0.8% -8.8% 100% 0% -8.8%
≤90d 83 +1.5% -8.2% 98% 1% -8.7%
all 186 +2.2% -7.5% 91% 3% -8.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.5% 3% -8.5%
10% -16.4% 2% -17.2%
15% -24.5% 2% -25.2%
20% -31.9% 2% -32.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 48% · top 2 59% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
96% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 83% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +5% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$27 · ×0.15 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.95 per $1 lost it wins $1.95
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

600d coverage
Net worth$1,251
Realized+$334
Unrealized+$11
Win rate (resolved)91%
Wins / losses170 / 16
Whale WR (big bets)83%
Open positions13
Markets (closed)186 / 199
History coverage600d
Avg bet$150
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown51%
Kalshi-fit85%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 13 History 186 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Cristiano Ronaldo score 6+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 96¢ 96¢ $208 $209 +$1 (+0%)
Will Trump pardon SBF by July 31? No 98¢ 97¢ $195 $195 −$0 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 34°C on June 21? No 100¢ 100¢ $160 $160 +$0 (+0%)
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on June 21? No 99¢ 100¢ $103 $104 +$1 (+1%)
Trump's face on US gold coin by July 4? No 92¢ 97¢ $92 $97 +$5 (+6%)
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by June 30? No 96¢ 95¢ $96 $95 −$1 (-1%)
Will Silver (SI) hit (LOW) $35 by end of June? No 95¢ 100¢ $77 $81 +$4 (+5%)
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 34°C or higher on June 21? No 100¢ 100¢ $70 $70 +$0 (+0%)
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026? No 98¢ 98¢ $59 $59 +$0 (+0%)
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 19°C on June 21? No 99¢ 100¢ $50 $50 +$0 (+0%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) settle at $56-$63 in June? No 99¢ 98¢ $49 $49 −$0 (-0%)
Will Trump visit North Korea by June 30? No 99¢ 99¢ $45 $45 +$0 (+0%)
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 22°C on June 21? No 99¢ 100¢ $37 $37 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: Ecuador 0 - 1 Curaçao? Jun 21 $149 +$1 +1%
Exact Score: Ecuador 3 - 0 Curaçao? Jun 21 $195 +$4 +2%
Will the lowest temperature in London be 18°C on June 20? Jun 20 $165 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C or higher on June 17? Jun 17 $26 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C or higher on June 16? Jun 16 $42 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 31°C on June 16? Jun 16 $438 +$3 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 22°C on June 16? Jun 16 $48 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C or higher on June 16? Jun 16 $300 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C on June 16? Jun 16 $298 +$2 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on June 15? Jun 15 $26 $0 +0%
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $250 by end of June? Jun 15 $195 +$6 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 33°C or higher on June 14 Jun 14 $865 +$4 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 14? Jun 14 $81 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 15°C on June 11? Jun 11 $101 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 6°C or below on June 11? Jun 11 $80 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on June 11? Jun 11 $100 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 19°C on June 11? Jun 11 $17 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 16°C on June 10? Jun 10 $109 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 30°C or higher on June 10 Jun 10 $199 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 19°C on June 10? Jun 10 $324 +$3 +1%
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 15°C on June 9? Jun 09 $265 +$1 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 16°C on June 9? Jun 09 $150 $0 +0%
Will there be exactly 3 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwi Jun 01 $91 +$2 +3%
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 16°C on May 31? Jun 01 $45 $0 +1%
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 17°C on May 31? Jun 01 $528 +$8 +2%
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 82-83°F on May 31? Jun 01 $167 +$2 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on May 31? Jun 01 $95 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 76-77°F on May 30? May 31 $201 +$3 +1%
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 78-79°F on May 30? May 31 $263 +$6 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 31°C or higher on May 30? May 31 $99 +$1 +1%
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 19°C on May 29? May 29 $145 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in London be 31°C or higher on May 28? May 29 $367 +$1 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 16°C on May 28? May 29 $76 +$1 +1%
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 13°C on May 28? May 29 $100 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 15°C on May 28? May 28 $99 +$1 +1%
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 16°C on May 28? May 28 $124 +$1 +1%
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 17°C on May 27? May 28 $430 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 16°C on May 27? May 28 $302 +$3 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 30°C or higher on May 26? May 26 $207 +$2 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 29°C or higher on May 26? May 26 $497 +$2 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 31°C on May 26? May 26 $199 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 30°C on May 25? May 25 $79 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 16°C on May 25? May 25 $219 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 7°C on May 17? May 21 $130 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 5°C on May 17? May 21 $130 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 6°C on May 17? May 21 $114 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on May 17? May 17 $50 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 24°C on May 17? May 17 $476 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Jakarta be 26°C or below on May 16? May 16 $206 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 24°C on May 15? May 15 $692 +$1 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Cristiano Ronaldo score 6+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 97¢ $114 1h
Will Cristiano Ronaldo score 6+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 95¢ $95 1h
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 34°C on June 21? BUY No 100¢ $160 2h
Exact Score: Ecuador 0 - 1 Curaçao? BUY No 99¢ $99 2h
Exact Score: Ecuador 0 - 1 Curaçao? BUY No 99¢ $50 2h
Exact Score: Ecuador 3 - 0 Curaçao? SELL No 100¢ $107 2h
Exact Score: Ecuador 3 - 0 Curaçao? SELL No 100¢ $13 2h
Exact Score: Ecuador 3 - 0 Curaçao? SELL No 100¢ $12 2h
Exact Score: Ecuador 3 - 0 Curaçao? SELL No 100¢ $67 2h
Exact Score: Ecuador 3 - 0 Curaçao? BUY No 97¢ $53 2h
Exact Score: Ecuador 3 - 0 Curaçao? BUY No 97¢ $37 2h
Exact Score: Ecuador 3 - 0 Curaçao? BUY No 97¢ $7 2h
Exact Score: Ecuador 3 - 0 Curaçao? BUY No 98¢ $0 2h
Exact Score: Ecuador 3 - 0 Curaçao? BUY No 98¢ $98 2h
Will Crude Oil (CL) settle at $56-$63 in June? BUY No 99¢ $49 2h
Will Trump visit North Korea by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $45 15h
Trump's face on US gold coin by July 4? BUY No 92¢ $92 15h
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $96 15h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $59 15h
Will Trump pardon SBF by July 31? BUY No 98¢ $195 16h
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 22°C on June 21? BUY No 99¢ $37 16h
Will the lowest temperature in London be 18°C on June 20? BUY Yes 100¢ $165 16h
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 19°C on June 21? BUY No 99¢ $50 16h
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on June 21? BUY No 99¢ $103 16h
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 34°C or higher on June 21? BUY No 100¢ $70 16h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C or higher on June 17? BUY No 99¢ $26 4d
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C or higher on June 16? BUY No 99¢ $42 5d
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 31°C on June 16? BUY No 99¢ $308 5d
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 31°C on June 16? BUY No 99¢ $130 5d
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C on June 16? BUY No 99¢ $298 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,250.86 · official $1,250.86 (match) · 797 history records