Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T00:07:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
95 0x9578…f066 culture 424 markets active 2h ago coverage 110d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 110d only
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$9,200 (+3%) realized +$8,053 · open +$1,147
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +11% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR19%break-even
Win rate83%315W / 66L
Whale WR90%big bets
Drawdown9%max
Avg bet$624per market
Trades / day25.3pace
Kalshi-fit68%portable
Net worth$13,661now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$249
7 days+$652
14 days+$218
30 days+$1,150
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 49% +$520
other 29% +$3,417
culture 21% +$7,339
world 1% −$25
crypto 0% +$29
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +19%
net ROI/market (all)+0.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 27 +33.7% +21.0% 85% 33% -3.5%
≤30d 142 +7.9% -2.4% 87% 21% -7.0%
≤90d 353 +8.8% -1.5% 84% 19% -6.8%
all 381 +11.0% +0.4% 83% 19% -3.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover25.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +0.4% 19% -3.2%
10% ← realistic here -9.2% 10% -12.4%
15% -18.0% 7% -20.9%
20% -26.0% 5% -28.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 35% · top 2 41% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
76% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +11% · $-wt +7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 90% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +15% → late +7% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
4.6 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$39 vs −$36 · ×1.09 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×5.63 per $1 lost it wins $5.63
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

110d coverage
Net worth$13,661
Realized+$8,053
Unrealized+$1,147
Win rate (resolved)83%
Wins / losses315 / 66
Whale WR (big bets)90%
Open positions44
Markets (closed)381 / 424
History coverage110d ⚠
Avg bet$624
Trades / day25.3
Drawdown9%
Kalshi-fit68%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 44 History 381 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Olivia Dean have a #1 hit in the US in June? No 85¢ 88¢ $5,473 $5,659 +$186 (+3%)
Starmer out by October 31, 2026? Yes 94¢ 97¢ $1,897 $1,972 +$75 (+4%)
Will another country recognize Somaliland by June 30? No 72¢ 97¢ $1,078 $1,450 +$372 (+35%)
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? No 50¢ 80¢ $450 $720 +$270 (+60%)
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? Yes 10¢ 88¢ $80 $700 +$620 (+775%)
Will "You Seem Pretty Sad for a Girl So in Love - Olivia Rodrigo" be the Billboard 200 #1 album for the week of June 27? Yes 96¢ 98¢ $349 $358 +$8 (+2%)
Will Drake have a #1 hit in the US in June? No 78¢ 82¢ $287 $303 +$17 (+6%)
Starmer out by July 31, 2026? Yes 36¢ 96¢ $107 $287 +$180 (+168%)
Will Abelardo de la Espriella place 1st in Antioquia in the second round of the 2026 Colombia presidential election? Yes 95¢ 98¢ $246 $255 +$9 (+4%)
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027? No 34¢ 46¢ $136 $186 +$50 (+37%)
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 50¢ 20¢ $450 $180 −$270 (-60%)
Will Lana Del Rey release a new album by June 30? No 78¢ 89¢ $146 $166 +$21 (+14%)
Will Taylor Swift get married in Manhattan? Yes 82¢ 75¢ $118 $108 −$10 (-9%)
Will Twice release a song in 2026? Yes 73¢ 51¢ $132 $92 −$40 (-30%)
Will Olivia Dean have a #1 hit in June? No 89¢ 91¢ $84 $86 +$2 (+2%)
Starmer out by December 31, 2026? Yes 73¢ 98¢ $58 $78 +$20 (+34%)
Ebola case in the US by June 30? No 61¢ 95¢ $43 $66 +$24 (+55%)
Will voter turnout be <52% in the second round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election? No 91¢ 99¢ $60 $65 +$5 (+9%)
Will another outcome occur in the 2026 Makerfield by-election? No 93¢ 100¢ $58 $62 +$4 (+7%)
Will Kanye West have a #1 hit in June? No 86¢ 95¢ $55 $61 +$6 (+10%)
Labour leadership election scheduled by December 31, 2026? Yes 89¢ 90¢ $61 $61 +$0 (+1%)
Will "Drop Dead - Olivia Rodrigo" be the #1 song on US Spotify this week? No 97¢ 99¢ $59 $61 +$1 (+2%)
Labour leadership election scheduled by June 30? Yes 71¢ 51¢ $83 $59 −$24 (-28%)
Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30? No 78¢ 97¢ $47 $59 +$12 (+26%)
Will Don Toliver have a #1 hit in June? No 80¢ 95¢ $47 $56 +$9 (+19%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Labour leadership election scheduled by July 31? Jun 20 $216 −$1 -0%
Will "I Knew It, I Knew You - Taylor Swift" be the #1 song on US Spoti Jun 20 $44 $0 +1%
Will "Billie Jean - Michael Jackson" be the #1 song on US Spotify this Jun 20 $21 $0 +1%
Starmer out by June 22, 2026? Jun 20 $33 +$1 +3%
Will Kanye release Bully Deluxe by June 19? Jun 20 $58 −$58 -100%
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election by 9% or more? Jun 20 $76 −$76 -100%
Starmer out by June 26, 2026? Jun 19 $12 +$2 +21%
Will "Stupid Song - Olivia Rodrigo" be the #1 song on Spotify this wee Jun 19 $12 +$1 +8%
Will "Stupid Song - Olivia Rodrigo" be the #1 song on US Spotify this Jun 19 $814 +$21 +3%
Makerfield by-election: Restore Britain receives 10%+? Jun 19 $69 +$28 +41%
Will Rebecca Shepherd win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? Jun 19 $592 +$10 +2%
Will Rebecca Shepherd finish second in the 2026 Makerfield by-election Jun 19 $3,601 +$308 +9%
Will Lara Bird win the 2026 Arbroath and Broughty Ferry by-election? Jun 19 $107 +$3 +3%
Will Richard Gordon Thomson win the 2026 Aberdeen South by-election? Jun 19 $1 +$9 +669%
Will Abelardo de la Espriella place 1st in Bogotá in the second round Jun 18 $221 +$286 +129%
Will turnout in the second round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential ele Jun 18 $97 +$5 +5%
Will Spencer Pratt win the first round of the 2026 Los Angeles Mayoral Jun 18 $14 +$3 +20%
LA Mayoral Election: Court Rules 1st Round Fraudulent? Jun 18 $23 $0 +2%
Will Petro mention Hitler again by June 30? Jun 16 $13 −$13 -100%
Will ICEMAN be No.1 for 4 weeks or more? Jun 16 $3,156 +$60 +2%
Will Jotham Stein advance from the CA-16 primary election? Jun 16 $8 +$2 +23%
Will John Wesley Tyler advance from the CA-04 primary election? Jun 16 $31 +$3 +11%
Will "I Knew It, I Knew You - Taylor Swift" be the Billboard Hot 100 # Jun 16 $5 +$11 +233%
Will Argentina be the worst-placed South American nation in the 2026 F Jun 15 $23 +$1 +5%
Will "Iceman - Drake" be the Billboard 200 #1 album for the week of Ju Jun 15 $320 +$36 +11%
Will "Habibti - Drake" be the Billboard 200 #1 album for the week of J Jun 15 $30 +$2 +6%
Will Olivia Rodrigo have a #1 hit in June? Jun 14 $221 +$7 +3%
Will Olivia Rodrigo have a #1 hit in the US in June? Jun 13 $793 +$79 +10%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 13 $2,550 $0 +0%
Will "Earrings - Malcolm Todd" be the #1 song on US Spotify this week? Jun 12 $65 +$6 +9%
Will "The Cure - Olivia Rodrigo" be the #1 song on Spotify this week? Jun 12 $43 +$3 +6%
Will "Babydoll - Dominic Fike" be the #1 song on Spotify this week? Jun 12 $61 +$6 +9%
Will "Ran to Atlanta - Drake, Future & Molly Santana" be the #1 song o Jun 12 $16 +$1 +6%
Will "SWIM - BTS" be the #1 song on Spotify this week? Jun 12 $43 +$3 +6%
Will "Janice STFU - Drake" be the #1 song on Spotify this week? Jun 12 $43 +$3 +6%
Will "Potential - sombr" be the #1 song on Spotify this week? Jun 12 $29 +$2 +6%
Will "I Knew It, I Knew You - Taylor Swift" be the #1 song on US Spoti Jun 12 $328 +$319 +97%
Will Olivia Rodrigo release a new original album by June 12? Jun 12 $238 +$8 +4%
Will Andy Burnham be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in Jun 10 $23 −$13 -56%
Will Elizabeth Fenner advance from the CA-37 primary election? Jun 10 $9 +$1 +11%
Will Ceci Truman advance from the CA-25 primary election? Jun 10 $10 +$5 +45%
Will Pete Aguilar advance from the CA-33 primary election? Jun 10 $26 +$4 +14%
Will Ling Ling Shi advance from the CA-33 primary election? Jun 10 $33 +$2 +6%
Will Antonis P. Christodoulou advance from the CA-33 primary election? Jun 10 $33 +$2 +6%
Peru Presidential Election Invalidated? Jun 09 $222 +$2 +1%
Will Drake have 3+ albums in the Billboard 200 top 10? Jun 09 $6,222 +$66 +1%
Will "Choosin' Texas - Ella Langley" be the Billboard Hot 100 #1 song Jun 08 $214 −$213 -100%
Will "BROWN - Chris Brown" be the Billboard 200 #1 album for the week Jun 08 $53 +$3 +6%
Will "Ran To Atlanta - Drake" be the Billboard Hot 100 #1 song for the Jun 08 $54 +$3 +6%
Will "Hit The Wall - Gracie Abrams" be the Billboard Hot 100 #1 song f Jun 08 $54 +$3 +6%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Labour leadership election scheduled by July 31? SELL Yes 75¢ $177 1h
Labour leadership election scheduled by July 31? SELL Yes 88¢ $39 1h
Starmer out by October 31, 2026? BUY Yes 97¢ $486 2h
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027? BUY No 35¢ $38 2h
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027? BUY No 35¢ $7 2h
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027? BUY No 35¢ $7 2h
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027? BUY No 35¢ $10 2h
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027? BUY No 35¢ $8 2h
Starmer out by October 31, 2026? BUY Yes 97¢ $863 2h
Starmer out by October 31, 2026? BUY Yes 97¢ $110 3h
Will "Janice STFU - Drake" be the #1 song on US Spotify this week? SELL No 100¢ $4 5h
Will "Janice STFU - Drake" be the #1 song on US Spotify this week? SELL No 100¢ $5 5h
Will "I Knew It, I Knew You - Taylor Swift" be the #1 song on US Spoti SELL No 100¢ $24 5h
Will "I Knew It, I Knew You - Taylor Swift" be the #1 song on US Spoti SELL No 100¢ $21 5h
Will "Billie Jean - Michael Jackson" be the #1 song on US Spotify this SELL No 100¢ $1 7h
Will "Billie Jean - Michael Jackson" be the #1 song on US Spotify this SELL No 100¢ $20 7h
Starmer out by June 22, 2026? SELL Yes 18¢ $17 8h
Starmer out by June 22, 2026? SELL Yes 18¢ $17 8h
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027? BUY No 33¢ $33 9h
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027? BUY No 33¢ $33 9h
Will Drake have a #1 hit in the US in June? BUY No 83¢ $85 10h
Will "You Seem Pretty Sad for a Girl So in Love - Olivia Rodrigo" be t BUY Yes 99¢ $144 12h
Will "Drop Dead - Olivia Rodrigo" be the #1 song on US Spotify this we BUY No 97¢ $39 12h
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election by 9% or more? SELL No 0¢ $0 15h
Will Olivia Rodrigo have 5 songs in Billboard top 10 for week of June BUY Yes 6¢ $1 17h
Labour leadership election scheduled by July 31? BUY Yes 84¢ $17 24h
Labour leadership election scheduled by July 31? BUY Yes 76¢ $199 24h
Will "Janice STFU - Drake" be the #1 song on US Spotify this week? BUY No 96¢ $21 25h
Will "I Knew It, I Knew You - Taylor Swift" be the #1 song on US Spoti BUY No 96¢ $5 25h
Will "Drop Dead - Olivia Rodrigo" be the #1 song on US Spotify this we BUY No 98¢ $21 25h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $13,661.19 · official $13,670.74 (match) · 3500 history records