Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T03:51:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
95 0x9575…cd83 crypto 633 markets active 1h ago coverage 144d ⚠
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 144d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$3,951 (-31%) realized −$3,908 · open −$43
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +24% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +4% what you keep after slip
Net edge+4%after slip
Net WR54%break-even
Win rate54%339W / 293L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$20per market
Trades / day10.5pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$5now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 144d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 96% −$111
other 4% −$282
sports 0% −$7
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +54%
net ROI/market (all)+12.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 -67.2% -70.4% 20% 20% -59.5%
≤30d 10 -67.2% -70.4% 20% 20% -59.5%
≤90d 10 -67.2% -70.4% 20% 20% -59.5%
all 632 +24.2% +12.3% 54% 54% -12.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.5 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +12.3% 54% -12.6%
10% +1.6% 52% -21.0%
15% -8.2% 49% -28.6%
20% -17.2% 45% -35.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 3% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -55% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +24% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late +46% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$15 vs −$19 · ×0.81 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.94 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

144d coverage
Net worth$5
Realized−$3,908
Unrealized−$43
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses339 / 293
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)632 / 633
History coverage144d ⚠
Avg bet$20
Trades / day10.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 632 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? No 23¢ 2¢ $48 $5 −$43 (-89%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 269 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 14 $7 −$7 -97%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $81 −$80 -99%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $80 +$11 +14%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $109 −$108 -100%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $51 +$58 +114%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $51 −$50 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 17, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Feb 23 $26 +$23 +91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 16, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Feb 23 $26 +$23 +91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 17, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET Feb 23 $26 +$23 +91%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 17, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Feb 23 $26 +$23 +91%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 16, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET Feb 23 $26 +$23 +89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 17, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET Feb 23 $24 +$25 +103%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 16, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET Feb 23 $26 +$19 +72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 16, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET Feb 23 $26 +$23 +87%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 17, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Feb 23 $26 +$22 +84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 17, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET Feb 23 $26 +$22 +84%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 16, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Feb 23 $26 +$22 +84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 16, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Feb 23 $26 +$20 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 16, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET Feb 23 $27 +$22 +80%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 16, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET Feb 23 $27 +$22 +80%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 17, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Feb 23 $26 +$23 +87%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 17, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Feb 23 $27 −$6 -21%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 17, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Feb 23 $28 +$21 +77%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 17, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET Feb 23 $26 +$22 +82%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 16, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Feb 23 $10 +$10 +96%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 18, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET Feb 18 $26 −$6 -25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 17, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET Feb 18 $26 −$26 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 17, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET Feb 18 $26 −$26 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 17, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET Feb 18 $19 −$19 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 17, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Feb 17 $55 −$54 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 17, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Feb 17 $27 −$27 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 17, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET Feb 17 $24 −$24 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 17, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Feb 17 $26 −$26 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 16, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET Feb 17 $26 −$4 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 16, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET Feb 17 $26 −$26 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 16, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET Feb 17 $26 −$26 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 16, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET Feb 16 $26 −$12 -46%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 16, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET Feb 16 $29 +$20 +69%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 16, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET Feb 16 $33 −$33 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 16, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Feb 16 $26 −$26 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 16, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Feb 16 $26 −$25 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 16, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Feb 16 $26 −$26 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 16, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Feb 16 $28 −$27 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 16, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Feb 16 $26 +$22 +87%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 16, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Feb 16 $26 +$24 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 16, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Feb 16 $26 +$23 +91%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 9¢ $8 1h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 26¢ $20 1h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 48¢ $20 2h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 35¢ $20 4h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 26¢ $20 13h
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 4¢ $7 13h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 57¢ $40 24h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 57¢ $10 24h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 57¢ $30 24h
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 7¢ $10 25h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 73¢ $91 25h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 63¢ $80 27h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 17¢ $20 30h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 82¢ $109 44h
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 46¢ $51 2d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 54¢ $51 2d
Ethereum Up or Down - February 18, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET SELL Up 38¢ $2 116d
Ethereum Up or Down - February 18, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET SELL Up 38¢ $8 116d
Ethereum Up or Down - February 18, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET SELL Up 38¢ $9 116d
Ethereum Up or Down - February 18, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $26 116d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 17, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $26 116d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 17, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $21 116d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 17, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET SELL Down 97¢ $3 116d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 17, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET SELL Down 97¢ $3 116d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 17, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET SELL Down 97¢ $2 116d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 17, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET SELL Down 97¢ $2 116d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 17, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET SELL Down 97¢ $3 116d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 17, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET SELL Down 97¢ $3 116d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 17, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET SELL Down 97¢ $3 116d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 17, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET SELL Down 97¢ $3 116d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $5.19 · official $5.19 (match) · 3500 history records