Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T18:32:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
95 0x9570…c030 crypto 59 markets active 9d ago coverage 375d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$16,138 (+6%) realized +$16,000 · open +$138
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR7%break-even
Win rate86%49W / 8L
Whale WR100%big bets
Drawdown2%max
Avg bet$4,940per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Kalshi-fit76%portable
Net worth$28,638now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days−$98
30 days+$105
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 76% +$950
other 8% +$560
economics 6% +$187
politics 5% +$14,156
tech 2% +$102
sports 2% +$159
finance 0% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +7%
net ROI/market (all)-12.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 5 -35.6% -41.8% 60% 0% -9.2%
≤90d 15 -11.4% -19.9% 87% 0% -9.1%
all 57 -3.7% -12.9% 86% 7% -4.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~10%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -12.9% 7% -4.0%
10% ← realistic here -21.2% 4% -13.2%
15% -28.8% 2% -21.6%
20% -35.8% 2% -29.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 84% · top 2 86% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
92% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt +6% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 100% (≥$4,915) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -2% → late -5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$336 vs −$58 · ×5.76 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×35.27 per $1 lost it wins $35.27
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

375d coverage
Net worth$28,638
Realized+$16,000
Unrealized+$138
Win rate (resolved)86%
Wins / losses49 / 8
Whale WR (big bets)100%
Open positions2
Markets (closed)57 / 59
History coverage375d
Avg bet$4,940
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown2%
Kalshi-fit76%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 57 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in June? No 99¢ 100¢ $26,500 $26,621 +$121 (+0%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $47,500 in June? No 98¢ 99¢ $2,000 $2,017 +$17 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $16 −$15 -98%
Will MegaETH perform an airdrop by December 31, 2026? Jun 19 $101 −$82 -81%
Will SpaceX IPO by December 31, 2026? Jun 12 $5,004 +$104 +2%
Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 in May? Jun 01 $1,024 +$5 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in May? Jun 01 $25,277 +$94 +0%
Billions FDV above $1B one day after launch? May 05 $100 +$1 +1%
Billions FDV above $50M one day after launch? May 05 $1,002 +$21 +2%
Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in April? May 01 $2,000 +$6 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 in April? May 01 $5,100 +$14 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in April? May 01 $21,225 +$39 +0%
Trump out as President by March 31? Apr 13 $1,000 +$1 +0%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $180 by end of March? Apr 13 $1,000 +$2 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $2,600 in March? Apr 13 $3,000 +$6 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in March? Apr 13 $4,000 +$12 +0%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by March 31, 2026? Apr 13 $8,000 +$127 +2%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in February? Mar 05 $14,930 +$70 +0%
Seahawks vs. Patriots Feb 28 $1,164 +$13 +1%
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $10,000 by end of February? Feb 28 $8,941 +$59 +1%
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after January 2026 meeting? Feb 01 $3,000 +$9 +0%
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Jan Feb 01 $4,000 +$25 +1%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after January 2026 meeting? Feb 01 $4,000 +$28 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in January? Feb 01 $10,924 +$28 +0%
Will Trump nominate Scott Bessent as the next Fed chair? Jan 20 $3,000 +$21 +1%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin in 2025? Jan 12 $4,000 +$71 +2%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 by December 31, 2025? Jan 01 $2,000 +$18 +1%
Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2025? Jan 01 $2,000 +$20 +1%
Kraken IPO in 2025? Jan 01 $2,000 +$52 +3%
Xi Jinping out in 2025? Jan 01 $3,015 +$58 +2%
Will MetaMask launch a token in 2025? Jan 01 $3,000 +$259 +9%
Will Bitcoin reach $200,000 by December 31, 2025? Jan 01 $3,400 +$10 +0%
Will Trump pardon Sam Bankman-Fried in 2025? Jan 01 $3,732 +$268 +7%
Will Bitcoin reach $170,000 by December 31, 2025? Jan 01 $4,000 +$20 +0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after December 2025 meeting? Dec 10 $1,956 +$44 +2%
Will Bitcoin reach $200,000 in November? Dec 02 $15,308 +$92 +1%
Will the Government shutdown end October 31-November 3? Nov 06 $3,000 +$9 +0%
Will the Toronto Blue Jays win the 2025 World Series? Nov 02 $96 −$45 -47%
Will NVIDIA be the most valuable company on October 31? Nov 01 $2,000 −$2 -0%
Will Trump pardon SBF by October 31? Nov 01 $2,000 +$7 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $200k in October? Nov 01 $32,266 +$50 +0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after October 2025 meeting? Oct 29 $4,915 +$85 +2%
Will Trump pardon Changpeng Zhao in 2025? Oct 23 $4,699 +$13,871 +295%
Lighter market cap (FDV) >$2B one day after launch? Oct 05 $1,480 +$180 +12%
Will Bitcoin reach $200K in September? Oct 03 $12,067 +$24 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150K in August? Sep 01 $5,000 +$15 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $200K in August? Sep 01 $6,733 +$22 +0%
Will Giannis Antetokounmpo not be traded? Aug 12 $400 +$17 +4%
Will Bitcoin reach $200K in July? Aug 02 $2,298 +$10 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150K in July? Aug 02 $6,255 +$50 +1%
Will Giannis Antetokounmpo be traded to the Knicks? Jul 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Chelsea win the FIFA Club World Cup? Jul 05 $100 +$32 +32%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 21¢ $16 8d
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in June? BUY No 100¢ $5,200 8d
Will MegaETH perform an airdrop by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 16¢ $19 8d
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in June? BUY No 99¢ $8,303 24d
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in June? BUY No 99¢ $10,004 24d
Will SpaceX IPO by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 99¢ $3,001 25d
Will Bitcoin dip to $47,500 in June? BUY No 98¢ $2,002 25d
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in June? BUY No 99¢ $3,002 25d
Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 in May? BUY No 100¢ $1,024 51d
Will MegaETH perform an airdrop by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 81¢ $101 51d
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in May? BUY No 100¢ $20,276 56d
Will SpaceX IPO by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 96¢ $2,004 56d
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in May? BUY No 100¢ $5,001 56d
Billions FDV above $1B one day after launch? BUY No 98¢ $100 56d
Billions FDV above $50M one day after launch? BUY Yes 98¢ $1,002 56d
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in April? BUY No 100¢ $21,225 73d
Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in April? BUY No 100¢ $2,000 73d
Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 in April? BUY No 100¢ $5,000 73d
Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 in April? BUY No 100¢ $100 73d
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by March 31, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $2,000 89d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $180 by end of March? BUY No 100¢ $1,000 89d
Will Ethereum reach $2,600 in March? BUY No 100¢ $3,000 89d
Trump out as President by March 31? BUY No 100¢ $1,000 89d
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by March 31, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $3,000 89d
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in March? BUY No 100¢ $4,000 89d
Seahawks vs. Patriots BUY Seahawks 99¢ $1,164 138d
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $10,000 by end of February? BUY No 99¢ $4,175 145d
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $10,000 by end of February? BUY No 99¢ $104 145d
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $10,000 by end of February? BUY No 99¢ $91 145d
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $10,000 by end of February? BUY No 99¢ $127 145d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $28,638.31 · official $28,638.31 (match) · 216 history records