Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T11:05:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
95 0x956e…7e32 crypto 302 markets active 0h ago coverage 122d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$131 (+2%) realized +$171 · open −$40
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -18% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate42%126W / 175L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$28per market
Trades / day6.3pace
Fees−$8est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$160now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$89
7 days−$56
14 days−$56
30 days−$56
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 79% −$31
other 13% +$159
weather 6% −$184
sports 2% −$60
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-25.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 208 -39.7% -45.4% 25% 20% -10.2%
≤30d 208 -39.7% -45.4% 25% 20% -10.2%
≤90d 208 -39.7% -45.4% 25% 20% -10.2%
all 301 -17.7% -25.6% 42% 36% -10.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -25.6% 36% -10.4%
10% -32.7% 29% -19.0%
15% -39.2% 26% -26.8%
20% -45.2% 20% -34.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 27% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
14% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -18% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -13% → late -23% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$12 vs −$9 · ×1.33 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.95 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

122d coverage
Net worth$160
Realized+$171
Unrealized−$40
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses126 / 175
Est. fees paid−$8
Open positions1
Markets (closed)301 / 302
History coverage122d
Avg bet$28
Trades / day6.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 301 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Up 23¢ 18¢ $200 $160 −$40 (-20%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Solana Up or Down - June 20, 7AM ET Jun 20 $3 $0 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 20 $104 −$93 -90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 20 $103 −$103 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 20 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 20 $104 −$104 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 20 $435 −$193 -44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 20 $127 +$4 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 20 $51 +$17 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 20 $26 −$14 -53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 20 $208 −$70 -34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 20 $127 +$39 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 20 $127 +$12 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 20 $103 +$65 +63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 20 $128 +$81 +63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 20 $26 +$20 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 20 $104 +$98 +95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 20 $103 +$52 +51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 20 $103 +$54 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 20 $205 +$17 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 20 $102 +$33 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 20 $103 −$54 -52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 20 $102 +$42 +41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 20 $203 +$23 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 20 $205 +$45 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 20 $103 +$13 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 20 $103 +$7 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 20 $102 −$102 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 20 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 20 $103 −$103 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 20 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 20 $26 +$10 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 20 $26 +$14 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 20 $102 +$48 +47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 20 $312 +$310 +99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 20 $102 +$21 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 20 $102 +$12 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 20 $102 +$11 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 20 $206 +$47 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 20 $206 −$1 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 20 $26 +$2 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 20 $307 +$19 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 20 $231 +$45 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 20 $103 −$66 -64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 20 $133 +$3 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 20 $56 +$9 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 20 $31 +$4 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 20 $31 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 20 $36 +$13 +36%
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 20 $102 −$9 -9%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $607 +$69 +11%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Solana Up or Down - June 20, 7AM ET SELL Up 51¢ $2 0m
Solana Up or Down - June 20, 7AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $3 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET BUY Up 23¢ $211 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET BUY Down 80¢ $203 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET SELL Down 66¢ $32 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $26 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET SELL Up 42¢ $138 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET BUY Up 58¢ $206 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $121 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET BUY Down 82¢ $101 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET SELL Up 26¢ $10 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET BUY Up 63¢ $26 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET SELL Down 91¢ $30 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET BUY Down 76¢ $25 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET SELL Down 85¢ $38 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $26 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET SELL Up 25¢ $12 32m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $26 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET SELL Down 11¢ $10 36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET BUY Down 47¢ $104 39m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET BUY Up 56¢ $26 48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET BUY Up 38¢ $104 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET BUY Up 57¢ $103 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $139 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET BUY Up 71¢ $102 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET BUY Down 75¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $168 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET BUY Down 59¢ $103 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET BUY Up 75¢ $102 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET BUY Up 75¢ $25 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $159.62 · official $685.94 · 1045 history records