Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T02:47:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
95 0x956b…7eb1 other 640 markets active 0h ago coverage 93d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$74 (-4%) realized −$114 · open +$40
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -18% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -32% what you keep after slip
Net edge-32%after slip
Net WR21%break-even
Win rate23%143W / 490L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$3per market
Trades / day9.1pace
Fees−$7est.
Kalshi-fit44%portable
Net worth$151now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$49
7 days+$38
14 days+$38
30 days+$38
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 47% −$172
sports 36% +$143
crypto 15% −$15
world 2% −$3
finance 0% −$4
tech 0% −$1
politics 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +21%
net ROI/market (all)-26.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 83 -46.2% -51.4% 24% 23% -5.9%
≤30d 83 -46.2% -51.4% 24% 23% -5.9%
≤90d 544 -23.3% -30.6% 18% 18% -16.5%
all 633 -18.3% -26.1% 23% 21% -14.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.1 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -26.1% 21% -14.3%
10% -33.2% 19% -22.5%
15% -39.6% 17% -30.0%
20% -45.5% 15% -36.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 20% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
8% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -18% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -9% → late -28% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$2 · ×3.02 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.88 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

93d coverage
Net worth$151
Realized−$114
Unrealized+$40
Win rate (resolved)23%
Wins / losses143 / 490
Est. fees paid−$7
Open positions6
Markets (closed)633 / 640
History coverage93d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day9.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit44%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 633 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Argentina 42¢ 99¢ $25 $59 +$34 (+135%)
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Yes 82¢ 100¢ $25 $30 +$5 (+22%)
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 4.5 Under 86¢ 91¢ $25 $26 +$1 (+6%)
Spread: Austria (-2.5) Jordan 77¢ 78¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+1%)
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Over 80¢ 78¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-3%)
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox Chicago White Sox 53¢ 48¢ $6 $5 −$1 (-11%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: 1st Half O/U 3.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Spain leading at halftime? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 17 $25 −$25 -100%
Belgium leading at halftime? Jun 17 $25 −$25 -100%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 17 $50 −$50 -100%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $15 −$9 -60%
Spread: Norway (-3.5) Jun 17 $20 +$4 +20%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $30 +$14 +48%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 16 $20 +$31 +152%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $10 +$3 +32%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $202 +$106 +52%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 13.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $111 +$17 +15%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 15 $10 +$6 +60%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $10 +$4 +40%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 11.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Scotland leading at halftime? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $110 +$14 +13%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $5 +$4 +79%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $10 +$2 +23%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $100 +$10 +10%
Germany vs. Curaçao: 2nd Half O/U 5.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $3 +$2 +65%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $20 +$5 +25%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $3 +$5 +172%
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $5 +$5 +97%
Exact Score: Korea Republic 1 - 2 Czechia? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Exact Score: Korea Republic 0 - 2 Czechia? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Exact Score: Korea Republic 0 - 1 Czechia? Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $5 +$8 +165%
Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Exact Score: Aston Villa FC 1 - 1 Liverpool FC? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Exact Score: 1. FC Union Berlin 1 - 1 FC Augsburg? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Exact Score: Portugal 1 - 0 Nigeria? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 0 Nigeria? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Exact Score: Aston Villa FC 1 - 2 Liverpool FC? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Exact Score: SC Freiburg 1 - 2 RB Leipzig? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Exact Score: 1. FC Union Berlin 1 - 2 FC Augsburg? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Nigeria win on 2026-06-10? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Exact Score: 1. FC Union Berlin 2 - 1 FC Augsburg? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 11? Jun 12 $10 $0 -5%
Exact Score: Aston Villa FC 2 - 1 Liverpool FC? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Exact Score: 1. FC Union Berlin 2 - 2 FC Augsburg? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Exact Score: SC Freiburg 2 - 1 RB Leipzig? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 1 Nigeria? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will SC Freiburg vs. RB Leipzig end in a draw? Jun 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Exact Score: Aston Villa FC 2 - 2 Liverpool FC? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 86¢ $25 6m
Spread: Austria (-2.5) BUY Jordan 77¢ $20 1h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 6.5 Total Corners BUY Over 80¢ $10 1h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 6.5 Total Corners SELL Over 30¢ $6 1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 82¢ $25 1h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 6.5 Total Corners BUY Over 72¢ $15 8h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) BUY Argentina 42¢ $25 8h
Spread: Norway (-3.5) BUY Iraq 83¢ $20 8h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 7.5 Total Corners BUY Over 75¢ $10 8h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $30 8h
Spread: France (-1.5) BUY France 39¢ $20 20h
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? BUY Yes 65¢ $202 23h
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 13.5 Total Corners BUY Under 87¢ $111 32h
Belgium leading at halftime? BUY Yes 46¢ $25 32h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 64¢ $5 32h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 64¢ $20 32h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 84¢ $50 34h
Spain leading at halftime? BUY Yes 49¢ $10 34h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Under 64¢ $5 34h
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Cabo Verde 62¢ $10 34h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 99¢ $125 47h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 76¢ $5 47h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 77¢ $5 47h
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 7.5 Total Corners BUY Under 71¢ $10 47h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 89¢ $100 2d
Sweden vs. Tunisia: 1st Half O/U 3.5 Total Corners BUY Over 68¢ $10 2d
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 6.5 Total Corners BUY Over 81¢ $10 2d
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 75¢ $5 2d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 55¢ $5 2d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 91¢ $100 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $150.78 · official $149.32 (match) · 1393 history records