Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T20:28:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
95 0x9568…1d03 sports 51 markets active 1h ago coverage 14d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$114 (-4%) realized −$115 · open +$1
Gross ROI / mkt -23% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -33% what you keep after slip
Net edge-33%after slip
Net WR35%break-even
Win rate39%19W / 30L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$63per market
Trades / day6.2pace
Fees−$26est.
Kalshi-fit73%portable
Net worth$128now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$161
7 days−$95
14 days+$46
30 days+$24
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 63% −$290
other 34% +$297
crypto 3% +$18
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)-30.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 16 -17.9% -25.7% 44% 38% -14.6%
≤30d 49 -22.9% -30.2% 39% 35% -8.8%
≤90d 49 -22.9% -30.2% 39% 35% -8.8%
all 49 -22.9% -30.2% 39% 35% -8.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -30.2% 35% -8.8%
10% -36.9% 29% -17.5%
15% -43.0% 18% -25.5%
20% -48.6% 12% -32.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 33% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
11% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -23% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -29% → late -17% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$40 vs −$25 · ×1.63 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.03 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

14d coverage
Net worth$128
Realized−$115
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses19 / 30
Est. fees paid−$26
Open positions1
Markets (closed)49 / 51
History coverage14d
Avg bet$63
Trades / day6.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit73%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 49 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Germany vs. Paraguay: Team to Advance Germany 86¢ 86¢ $127 $128 +$1 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 17 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Brazil vs. Japan: Team to Advance Jun 29 $50 +$23 +46%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? Jun 29 $213 +$155 +73%
LoL: T1 vs Karmine Corp (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational Play-In Jun 29 $41 −$40 -97%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 28 $101 +$24 +23%
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Nigma Galaxy (BO3) - The International Europe C Jun 25 $132 +$97 +73%
Dota 2: Virtus.pro vs TEAM VISION (BO3) - The International Europe Clo Jun 25 $51 −$50 -98%
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs AM Gaming (BO3) - Super DraculaN Group Jun 25 $150 +$7 +5%
Will South Africa vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 25 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $51 −$4 -7%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $333 +$91 +27%
Dota 2: Yellow Submarine vs Virtus.pro (BO3) - The International Europ Jun 24 $51 −$50 -99%
Dota 2: L1ga Team vs 4ikibamboni (BO3) - The International Europe Clos Jun 24 $31 −$30 -98%
Dota 2: VP.Prodigy vs Team Bald (BO3) - The International Europe Close Jun 23 $51 −$1 -2%
Dota 2: REKONIX vs Grind Back (BO3) - The International Southeast Asia Jun 23 $51 +$42 +82%
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 23 $41 −$3 -7%
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 23 $352 −$350 -100%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $136 +$33 +24%
Argentina vs. Austria: Argentina O/U 2.5 Jun 22 $15 −$15 -98%
Argentina vs. Austria: Both Teams to Score AND Will Argentina win on 2 Jun 22 $20 −$5 -24%
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 3.5 AND Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $8 −$2 -26%
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Jun 22 $50 +$18 +36%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 12.5 Total Corners Jun 21 $141 +$46 +32%
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports (BO5) - VCT Masters London Pla Jun 21 $2 −$2 -99%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo Jun 20 $44 $0 -1%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 11.5 Total Corners Jun 20 $126 +$16 +13%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $99 +$18 +18%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $31 −$21 -68%
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Leviatán Esports (BO5) - VCT Masters London Jun 20 $31 −$30 -98%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $99 +$62 +62%
Valorant: Team Vitality vs Leviatán Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Jun 19 $20 −$20 -98%
Will EDward Gaming win Valorant Masters London 2026? Jun 19 $20 −$20 -98%
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Paper Rex - Map 2 Winner Jun 19 $5 −$5 -98%
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Paper Rex (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof Jun 19 $72 +$72 +100%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $70 +$2 +3%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $20 −$1 -7%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $50 +$22 +44%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $5 −$1 -12%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $10 −$1 -9%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $30 −$1 -4%
Dota 2: Roar Gaming vs Cloud Rising (BO3) - The International China Cl Jun 16 $20 −$20 -99%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -98%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 11.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $29 +$4 +13%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $30 −$4 -13%
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Team Vitality (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof Jun 15 $25 +$7 +27%
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playo Jun 15 $49 +$28 +57%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $20 −$20 -99%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -99%
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $20 −$20 -99%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 11.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $31 $0 -1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Germany vs. Paraguay: Team to Advance BUY Germany 86¢ $128 1h
Brazil vs. Japan: Team to Advance SELL Brazil 99¢ $74 1h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? SELL Yes 98¢ $367 1h
Brazil vs. Japan: Team to Advance BUY Brazil 67¢ $50 1h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 56¢ $213 3h
LoL: T1 vs Karmine Corp (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational Play-In BUY Karmine Corp $10 16h
LoL: T1 vs Karmine Corp (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational Play-In BUY Karmine Corp 13¢ $31 17h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) SELL Colombia 97¢ $124 43h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY Colombia 78¢ $101 44h
Dota 2: Virtus.pro vs TEAM VISION (BO3) - The International Europe Clo BUY Virtus.pro 49¢ $51 4d
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Nigma Galaxy (BO3) - The International Europe C BUY Team Spirit 46¢ $51 4d
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs AM Gaming (BO3) - Super DraculaN Group SELL Sashi Esport 100¢ $157 4d
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Nigma Galaxy (BO3) - The International Europe C BUY Team Spirit 56¢ $10 4d
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs AM Gaming (BO3) - Super DraculaN Group BUY Sashi Esport 95¢ $150 4d
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Nigma Galaxy (BO3) - The International Europe C BUY Team Spirit 69¢ $71 4d
Will South Africa vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? BUY Yes 10¢ $5 4d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 46¢ $47 4d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 48¢ $51 4d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 80¢ $151 4d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 96¢ $90 4d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 33¢ $32 5d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 32¢ $46 5d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 33¢ $49 5d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 40¢ $101 5d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 39¢ $102 5d
Dota 2: Yellow Submarine vs Virtus.pro (BO3) - The International Europ BUY Yellow Submarine 62¢ $51 5d
Dota 2: L1ga Team vs 4ikibamboni (BO3) - The International Europe Clos BUY 4ikibamboni 39¢ $31 5d
Dota 2: VP.Prodigy vs Team Bald (BO3) - The International Europe Close SELL Team Bald 66¢ $49 6d
Dota 2: REKONIX vs Grind Back (BO3) - The International Southeast Asia SELL Grind Back 100¢ $92 6d
Dota 2: VP.Prodigy vs Team Bald (BO3) - The International Europe Close BUY Team Bald 66¢ $51 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $127.74 · official $127.74 (match) · 95 history records