Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T09:39:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

95
0x9567…20e3
weather · 433 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$33 -0%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$34 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP weather specialistFading edge
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$216
Realized−$34
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)89%
Wins / losses378 / 49
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions6
Markets (closed)427 / 433
History coverage152d
Avg bet$37
Trades / day7.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit91%
Chart Positions 6 History 427 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2
7 days−$11
14 days−$6
30 days−$5
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 26°C on June 13? No 100¢ 100¢ $40 $40 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on June 13? No 100¢ 100¢ $40 $40 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 13? No 100¢ 100¢ $40 $40 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 13? No 100¢ 100¢ $40 $40 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 16°C on June 13? No 100¢ 100¢ $40 $40 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 13? No 99¢ 100¢ $16 $16 +$0 (+1%)
Bolt vs. Smith: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5 Under 74¢ 0¢ $22 $0 −$22 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 25°C on June 12? Jun 13 $40 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 23°C on June 12? Jun 13 $40 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 13°C on June 12? Jun 13 $40 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 11°C on June 12? Jun 13 $40 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 12°C on June 12? Jun 13 $40 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in London be 18°C on June 12? Jun 12 $40 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in London be 19°C on June 12? Jun 12 $40 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in London be 20°C on June 12? Jun 12 $40 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 17°C on June 12? Jun 12 $12 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 16°C on June 12? Jun 12 $40 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 18°C on June 12? Jun 12 $40 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 26°C on June 12? Jun 12 $40 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 25°C on June 12? Jun 12 $40 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 15°C on June 12? Jun 12 $40 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 14°C on June 12? Jun 12 $40 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 23°C on June 12? Jun 12 $40 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 21°C on June 12? Jun 12 $40 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 19°C on June 12? Jun 12 $34 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 22°C on June 12? Jun 12 $40 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 19°C on June 12? Jun 12 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 29°C on June 12? Jun 12 $40 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 12? Jun 12 $40 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 12? Jun 12 $40 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C on June 12? Jun 12 $40 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on June 12? Jun 12 $80 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 21°C on June 12? Jun 12 $40 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 22°C on June 12? Jun 12 $40 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 28°C on June 11? Jun 12 $40 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 27°C on June 11? Jun 12 $40 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in London be 13°C on June 11? Jun 11 $120 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in London be 14°C on June 11? Jun 11 $65 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 15°C on June 11? Jun 11 $40 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 14°C on June 11? Jun 11 $40 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 16°C on June 11? Jun 11 $40 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 25°C on June 11? Jun 11 $40 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 15°C on June 11? Jun 11 $40 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 13°C on June 11? Jun 11 $40 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 14°C on June 11? Jun 11 $40 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 16°C on June 11? Jun 11 $40 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 22°C on June 11? Jun 11 $40 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 27°C on June 11? Jun 11 $40 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 11? Jun 11 $40 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 11? Jun 11 $40 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C on June 11? Jun 11 $40 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on June 11? Jun 11 $40 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C on June 11? Jun 11 $65 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on June 11? Jun 11 $40 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 20°C on June 11? Jun 11 $40 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 21°C on June 11? Jun 11 $40 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 26°C on June 10? Jun 11 $40 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
weather 57% +$12
other 14% +$68
crypto 11% +$169
tech 11% −$236
culture 4% −$26
sports 1% −$22
politics 1% +$1
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 16°C on June 13? BUY No 100¢ $40 1h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on June 13? BUY No 100¢ $40 6h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 13? BUY No 99¢ $10 6h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 26°C on June 13? BUY No 100¢ $40 6h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 13? BUY No 99¢ $6 6h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 13? BUY No 100¢ $40 7h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 13? BUY No 100¢ $40 8h
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 26°C on June 12? BUY No 100¢ $40 17h
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 25°C on June 12? BUY No 100¢ $25 17h
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 25°C on June 12? BUY No 100¢ $6 17h
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 25°C on June 12? BUY No 100¢ $8 17h
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 25°C on June 12? BUY No 100¢ $0 17h
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 13°C on June 12? BUY No 100¢ $40 18h
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 12°C on June 12? BUY No 100¢ $40 18h
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 11°C on June 12? BUY No 100¢ $40 19h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 23°C on June 12? BUY No 100¢ $40 20h
Will the highest temperature in London be 20°C on June 12? BUY No 100¢ $40 20h
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 25°C on June 12? BUY No 100¢ $24 20h
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 25°C on June 12? BUY No 100¢ $16 20h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 22°C on June 12? BUY No 100¢ $40 21h
Will the highest temperature in London be 19°C on June 12? BUY No 100¢ $40 21h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 21°C on June 12? BUY No 100¢ $40 21h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 19°C on June 12? BUY No 100¢ $34 23h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 18°C on June 12? BUY No 100¢ $40 23h
Will the highest temperature in London be 18°C on June 12? BUY No 100¢ $40 23h
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 15°C on June 12? BUY No 100¢ $40 24h
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 14°C on June 12? BUY No 100¢ $40 24h
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 29°C on June 12? BUY No 100¢ $40 24h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 17°C on June 12? BUY No 100¢ $12 25h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 16°C on June 12? BUY No 100¢ $40 26h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-9.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 148 -0.5% -10.0% 99% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 252 -0.2% -9.7% 100% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 366 +2.0% -7.7% 93% 4% -7.7%
all 427 +0.1% -9.5% 89% 5% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover7.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.5% 5% -9.7%
10% -18.1% 3% -18.4%
15% -26.0% 3% -26.2%
20% -33.3% 1% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $215.57 · official $215.57 (match) · 1559 history records