trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Ed Miliband be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026? | No | 90¢ | 98¢ | $7 | $8 | +$1 (+9%) |
| Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? | No | 94¢ | 98¢ | $8 | $8 | +$0 (+4%) |
| Will The Netherlands recognize Palestine before 2027? | No | 80¢ | 84¢ | $7 | $8 | +$0 (+5%) |
| Will North Korea invade South Korea before 2027? | No | 96¢ | 98¢ | $6 | $6 | +$0 (+1%) |
| Aziz Akhannouch out as Morocco Prime Minister by December 31, 2026? | Yes | 88¢ | 89¢ | $4 | $4 | +$0 (+1%) |
| Will Kuwait join the Abraham Accords before 2027? | No | 87¢ | 86¢ | $4 | $4 | −$0 (-1%) |
| Will Somaliland join the Abraham Accords before 2027? | No | 64¢ | 65¢ | $4 | $4 | +$0 (+2%) |
| Israel and Saudi Arabia normalize relations before 2027? | No | 50¢ | 87¢ | $1 | $2 | +$1 (+74%) |
| Israel and Saudi Arabia normalize relations before 2027? | Yes | 50¢ | 13¢ | $4 | $1 | −$3 (-74%) |
| Will The Netherlands recognize Palestine before 2027? | Yes | 19¢ | 16¢ | $1 | $1 | −$0 (-16%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will India strike Pakistan by December 31, 2026? | Jun 06 | $4 | $0 | +1% |
| Modi out by December 31, 2026? | Jun 01 | $5 | $0 | -2% |
| Will New Zealand recognize Palestine before 2027? | Jun 01 | $6 | $0 | -0% |
| Will Russia rejoin the G7 before 2027? | Jun 01 | $5 | $0 | +2% |
| Will a new country join the Abraham Accords before 2027? | Jun 01 | $3 | $0 | -3% |
| Will Japan recognize Palestine before 2027? | May 25 | $29 | $0 | +1% |
| China coup attempt before 2027? | Apr 26 | $34 | $0 | +0% |
| Milei out as President of Argentina before 2027? | Apr 26 | $5 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Israel strike 5 countries in 2026? | Apr 19 | $4 | $0 | -6% |
| Will Iran withdraw from the NPT before 2027? | Apr 19 | $8 | $0 | +1% |
| Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? | Mar 26 | $90 | $0 | -0% |
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 1 | +1.3% | -8.3% | 100% | 0% | -8.3% |
| ≤30d | 6 | -0.3% | -9.8% | 50% | 0% | -9.2% |
| ≤90d | 11 | -0.6% | -10.1% | 55% | 0% | -9.7% |
| all | 11 | -0.6% | -10.1% | 55% | 0% | -9.7% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -10.1% | 0% | -9.7% |
| 10% | -18.7% | 0% | -18.3% |
| 15% | -26.6% | 0% | -26.2% |
| 20% | -33.8% | 0% | -33.4% |