Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T15:12:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
95 0x9565…9ea9 sports 48 markets active 2h ago coverage 22d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$959 (-9%) realized −$1,008 · open +$49
Gross ROI / mkt +8% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -6% what you keep after slip
Net edge-6%after slip
Net WR57%break-even
Win rate60%28W / 19L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$212per market
Trades / day4.0pace
Fees−$142est.
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$124now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$42
7 days−$483
14 days−$2,119
30 days−$1,193
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 97% −$1,318
other 3% +$174
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +57%
net ROI/market (all)-2.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 14 -11.0% -19.5% 50% 50% -25.6%
≤30d 47 +8.3% -2.1% 60% 57% -20.2%
≤90d 47 +8.3% -2.1% 60% 57% -20.2%
all 47 +8.3% -2.1% 60% 57% -20.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -2.1% 57% -20.2%
10% -11.4% 57% -27.9%
15% -20.0% 55% -34.8%
20% -27.8% 36% -41.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 14% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -12% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +8% · $-wt -12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +33% → late -15% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$96 vs −$205 · ×0.47 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.69 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

22d coverage
Net worth$124
Realized−$1,008
Unrealized+$49
Win rate (resolved)60%
Wins / losses28 / 19
Est. fees paid−$142
Open positions1
Markets (closed)47 / 48
History coverage22d
Avg bet$212
Trades / day4.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 47 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Learner Tien vs. Felix Auger-Aliassime: Total Sets O/U 2.5 Over 2.5 45¢ 74¢ $75 $124 +$49 (+66%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros Jun 17 $224 +$129 +58%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $239 +$132 +55%
Halle Open: Fabian Marozsan vs Miomir Kecmanovic Jun 17 $150 +$74 +49%
Stuttgart Open: Sho Shimabukuro vs Nick Kyrgios Jun 16 $101 −$101 -100%
Minnesota Twins vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 10.5 Jun 16 $192 −$192 -100%
Stuttgart Open: Martin Landaluce vs Taylor Fritz Jun 11 $111 +$81 +73%
Libema Open: Adrian Mannarino vs Arthur Rinderknech Jun 11 $238 +$102 +43%
Set Handicap: Auger-Aliassime (-1.5) vs Fucsovics (+1.5) Jun 11 $127 −$24 -19%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $335 −$335 -100%
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 4.5 Jun 11 $206 +$129 +63%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 11 $493 −$463 -94%
Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City Royals Jun 11 $102 −$31 -31%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 11 $139 +$68 +49%
Cincinnati Reds vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 6.5 Jun 10 $51 −$51 -100%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Miami Marlins Jun 10 $207 +$141 +68%
Houston Astros vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 09 $219 +$186 +85%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 09 $143 +$76 +53%
Detroit Tigers vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 8.5 Jun 08 $1,016 −$945 -93%
Roland Garros ATP: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Flavio Cobolli Jun 03 $926 +$18 +2%
Roland Garros WTA: Aryna Sabalenka vs Diana Shnaider Jun 03 $997 −$997 -100%
Kalinskaya vs. Chwalinska: Match O/U 22.5 Jun 03 $115 −$115 -100%
Andreeva vs. Cirstea: Set 1 Games O/U 9.5 Jun 03 $153 −$152 -100%
Roland Garros WTA: Elina Svitolina vs Marta Kostyuk Jun 02 $231 +$182 +79%
Felix Auger-Aliassime vs. Alejandro Tabilo: Total Sets O/U 3.5 Jun 02 $152 −$152 -100%
San Francisco Giants vs. Milwaukee Brewers Jun 02 $234 +$147 +63%
Roland Garros ATP: Frances Tiafoe vs Matteo Arnaldi Jun 01 $204 +$202 +99%
Roland Garros ATP: Juan Manuel Cerundolo vs Matteo Berrettini Jun 01 $127 +$47 +37%
Juan Manuel Cerundolo vs. Matteo Berrettini: Total Sets O/U 3.5 Jun 01 $152 −$27 -18%
Minnesota Twins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 01 $153 +$96 +63%
Casper Ruud vs. Joao Fonseca: Total Sets O/U 3.5 Jun 01 $144 +$64 +44%
Jakub Mensik vs. Andrey Rublev: Total Sets O/U 3.5 Jun 01 $152 +$62 +41%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Seattle Mariners May 31 $153 −$5 -4%
UFC Fight Night: Alonzo Menifield vs. Zhang Mingyang (Light Heavyweigh May 31 $157 −$157 -100%
Felix Auger-Aliassime vs. Brandon Nakashima: Total Sets O/U 3.5 May 31 $164 +$91 +55%
Roland Garros ATP: Matteo Berrettini vs Francisco Comesana May 30 $254 +$112 +44%
UFC Fight Night: Kai Asakura vs. Cameron Smotherman (Bantamweight, Mai May 30 $152 +$55 +36%
UFC Fight Night: Rodrigo Vera vs. Zhu Kangjie (Featherweight, Prelims) May 30 $123 +$110 +90%
Set 1 Winner: Rinderknech vs Berrettini May 30 $82 −$82 -100%
Roland Garros ATP: Hubert Hurkacz vs Frances Tiafoe May 28 $99 +$125 +126%
Will Crystal Palace FC win on 2026-05-27? May 27 $20 +$23 +112%
Will Crystal Palace win the 2025-26 UEFA Europa Conference League? May 27 $37 +$19 +53%
Set Handicap: Fonseca (-2.5) vs Prizmic (+2.5) May 27 $26 −$26 -100%
Roland Garros WTA: Jil Teichmann vs Magdalena Frech May 27 $51 +$73 +143%
Nuno Borges vs. Miomir Kecmanovic: Total Sets O/U 3.5 May 27 $211 +$98 +46%
Roland Garros WTA: Victoria Mboko vs Nikola Bartunkova May 26 $157 +$54 +34%
Roland Garros ATP: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Daniel Altmaier May 26 $170 −$13 -8%
Roland Garros ATP: Alexander Bublik vs Jan-Lennard Struff May 26 $188 −$18 -9%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Learner Tien vs. Felix Auger-Aliassime: Total Sets O/U 2.5 BUY Over 2.5 45¢ $77 1h
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros SELL Houston Astros 100¢ $354 12h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $372 12h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 63¢ $239 14h
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros BUY Houston Astros 62¢ $224 14h
Halle Open: Fabian Marozsan vs Miomir Kecmanovic BUY Fabian Marozsan 66¢ $150 24h
Minnesota Twins vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 10.5 BUY Under 66¢ $192 5d
Stuttgart Open: Martin Landaluce vs Taylor Fritz SELL Taylor Fritz 99¢ $192 5d
Stuttgart Open: Martin Landaluce vs Taylor Fritz BUY Taylor Fritz 56¢ $111 5d
Stuttgart Open: Sho Shimabukuro vs Nick Kyrgios BUY Nick Kyrgios 79¢ $101 6d
Libema Open: Adrian Mannarino vs Arthur Rinderknech SELL Adrian Mannarino 100¢ $213 6d
Libema Open: Adrian Mannarino vs Arthur Rinderknech BUY Adrian Mannarino 47¢ $103 6d
Set Handicap: Auger-Aliassime (-1.5) vs Fucsovics (+1.5) SELL Auger-Aliassime 42¢ $103 6d
Set Handicap: Auger-Aliassime (-1.5) vs Fucsovics (+1.5) BUY Auger-Aliassime 50¢ $127 6d
Libema Open: Adrian Mannarino vs Arthur Rinderknech SELL Adrian Mannarino 46¢ $127 6d
Libema Open: Adrian Mannarino vs Arthur Rinderknech BUY Adrian Mannarino 47¢ $135 6d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Spurs 89¢ $335 6d
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 4.5 SELL Under 100¢ $335 6d
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 60¢ $206 6d
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates SELL Los Angeles Dodgers $30 6d
Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City Royals SELL Texas Rangers 41¢ $70 6d
Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City Royals BUY Texas Rangers 57¢ $102 6d
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Toronto Blue Jays SELL Philadelphia Phillies 96¢ $208 6d
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Toronto Blue Jays BUY Philadelphia Phillies 63¢ $139 6d
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates BUY Los Angeles Dodgers 65¢ $493 6d
Cincinnati Reds vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 6.5 BUY Under 29¢ $51 7d
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Miami Marlins SELL Miami Marlins 100¢ $348 7d
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Miami Marlins BUY Miami Marlins 58¢ $207 7d
Houston Astros vs. Los Angeles Angels BUY Houston Astros 53¢ $219 8d
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Toronto Blue Jays SELL Philadelphia Phillies 98¢ $219 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $124.17 · official $124.17 (match) · 102 history records