Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T09:19:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
95 0x9565…4e93 crypto 95 markets active 2d ago coverage 7d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$8 (+3%) realized +$9 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR27%break-even
Win rate27%25W / 68L
Drawdown98%max
Avg bet$3per market
Trades / day34.0pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$3now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 7d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 87% +$11
sports 11% −$7
other 1% −$3
politics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +27%
net ROI/market (all)-3.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 16 -67.3% -70.4% 6% 6% -71.0%
≤30d 93 +6.5% -3.7% 27% 27% -9.0%
≤90d 93 +6.5% -3.7% 27% 27% -9.0%
all 93 +6.5% -3.7% 27% 27% -9.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover34.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -3.7% 27% -9.0%
10% ← realistic here -12.9% 27% -17.7%
15% -21.3% 26% -25.6%
20% -29.0% 25% -32.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 25% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +6% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +60% → late -46% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$3 · ×2.74 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.01 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

7d coverage
Net worth$3
Realized+$9
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)27%
Wins / losses25 / 68
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions2
Markets (closed)93 / 95
History coverage7d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day34.0
Drawdown98%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 93 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Dogecoin reach $0.15 in June? Yes 3¢ 2¢ $3 $2 −$1 (-21%)
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Yes 3¢ 2¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-41%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 60 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -96%
UFC 329: Max Holloway vs. Conor McGregor (Welterweight, Main Card) Jun 11 $3 $0 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 11 $3 −$3 -94%
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 201.5 Jun 11 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 10 $3 −$3 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 10 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET Jun 10 $2 −$2 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Jun 10 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Jun 10 $2 −$2 -96%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 10 $3 −$3 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1PM ET Jun 10 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 10 $2 −$2 -95%
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 10 $3 −$3 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11AM ET Jun 10 $2 +$7 +331%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 10 $4 −$4 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 10 $2 −$2 -94%
Solana Up or Down - June 10, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Jun 10 $1 −$1 -94%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET Jun 10 $3 −$3 -97%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Athletics Jun 10 $5 +$5 +101%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 10 $4 −$4 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 10 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 10 $6 +$2 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 10 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 10 $1 $0 -13%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET Jun 10 $4 +$5 +127%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 09 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET Jun 09 $5 +$2 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 09 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 09 $2 +$4 +207%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 6PM ET Jun 09 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 09 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 09 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 09 $2 −$1 -29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 09 $2 +$5 +225%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 09 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 09 $3 −$3 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 09 $6 −$6 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 09 $3 +$6 +178%
Solana Up or Down - June 9, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jun 09 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 09 $7 −$7 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 09 $4 −$3 -66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 09 $3 +$4 +123%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 09 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 09 $3 −$3 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 09 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 09 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 09 $2 +$2 +118%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 09 $2 +$1 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 09 $3 +$7 +223%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET BUY Down 36¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET BUY Up 34¢ $1 2d
UFC 329: Max Holloway vs. Conor McGregor (Welterweight, Main Card) SELL Conor McGregor 30¢ $3 5d
UFC 329: Max Holloway vs. Conor McGregor (Welterweight, Main Card) BUY Conor McGregor 31¢ $3 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET BUY Down 2¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET BUY Down 6¢ $2 5d
Will Dogecoin reach $0.15 in June? BUY Yes 3¢ $3 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET BUY Down 28¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET BUY Down 36¢ $2 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET BUY Up 16¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET BUY Up 34¢ $2 6d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET BUY Up 32¢ $2 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET BUY Up 40¢ $2 6d
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 6d
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 16¢ $3 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1PM ET BUY Up 5¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1PM ET BUY Up 6¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET BUY Up 28¢ $2 6d
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 201.5 BUY Under 18¢ $3 6d
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Derrick Lewis 24¢ $3 6d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET BUY Up 10¢ $2 6d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET BUY Up 13¢ $2 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11AM ET BUY Up 22¢ $2 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET BUY Up 2¢ $1 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET BUY Up 18¢ $1 7d
Solana Up or Down - June 10, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET BUY Up 1¢ $1 7d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $1 7d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET BUY Up 61¢ $2 7d
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 38¢ $4 7d
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Athletics BUY Athletics 49¢ $5 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2.96 · official $2.96 (match) · 246 history records