Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T23:37:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
95 0x9564…d89a sports 61 markets active 2h ago coverage 118d
COPY-WORTHYcopy this sports specialistFresh edge
Total PnL +$844 (+23%) realized +$897 · open −$53
Gross ROI / mkt +54% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +39% what you keep after slip
Net edge+39%after slip
Net WR55%break-even
Win rate62%29W / 18L
Drawdown70%max
Avg bet$60per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Fees−$42est.
Kalshi-fit70%portable
Net worth$1,332now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$523
14 days+$535
30 days+$1,334
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 48% −$475
sports 46% +$1,281
world 6% +$8
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
worth copying (survives realistic slippage)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +55%
net ROI/market (all)+39.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +58.9% +43.8% 83% 83% +101.6%
≤30d 28 +117.2% +96.5% 82% 79% +75.6%
≤90d 41 +68.2% +52.2% 66% 59% +26.3%
all 47 +53.9% +39.3% 62% 55% +25.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +39.3% 55% +25.4%
10% +25.9% 53% +13.4%
15% +13.8% 53% +2.4%
20% +2.6% 53% -7.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 30% · top 2 39% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +40% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
10% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +54% · $-wt +39% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -50% → late +153% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$53 vs −$38 · ×1.41 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×2.27 per $1 lost it wins $2.27
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

118d coverage
Net worth$1,332
Realized+$897
Unrealized−$53
Win rate (resolved)62%
Wins / losses29 / 18
Est. fees paid−$42
Open positions14
Markets (closed)47 / 61
History coverage118d
Avg bet$60
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown70%
Kalshi-fit70%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 14 History 47 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Robert Lewandowski join Chicago Fire? Yes 95¢ 98¢ $300 $311 +$11 (+4%)
Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup? Yes 65¢ 66¢ $200 $202 +$2 (+1%)
Will Ronaldo play with Ronaldo Jr. before the end of 2026? No 85¢ 59¢ $260 $180 −$80 (-31%)
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? No 57¢ 66¢ $150 $173 +$23 (+15%)
Will Ousmane Dembélé win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? Yes 14¢ 16¢ $150 $168 +$18 (+12%)
Will Lionel Messi win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? Yes 11¢ 12¢ $100 $105 +$5 (+5%)
Will Julian Alvarez join Barcelona? Yes 63¢ 46¢ $100 $73 −$27 (-27%)
Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Yes 10¢ 42¢ $10 $41 +$31 (+306%)
Zuffa Boxing 8: Trinidad vs. Ancajas (Featherweight, Main) Trinidad 61¢ 86¢ $25 $35 +$10 (+42%)
Will Vitinha win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? Yes $20 $20 −$0 (-2%)
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Yes 35¢ 12¢ $35 $13 −$22 (-64%)
Will Pedri win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? Yes $5 $8 +$4 (+70%)
Will Yair Lapid be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Yes $5 $2 −$3 (-66%)
Will Khvicha Kvaratskhelia win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? Yes $25 $1 −$24 (-96%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 10 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Erling Haaland: 1+ shots Jun 26 $30 +$21 +68%
ITF Taipei: Erika Sema vs Chia Yi Tsao Jun 25 $30 +$21 +70%
Set Handicap: Tsao (-1.5) vs Sema (+1.5) Jun 25 $30 +$18 +59%
Map Handicap: SHIM (-1.5) vs Atrix Esports (+1.5) Jun 24 $41 +$34 +83%
Counter-Strike: Atrix Esports vs shimmer (BO3) - Rainhas do Clutch FER Jun 23 $31 −$30 -98%
Lexus Eastbourne Open (Doubles): Cash/Glasspool vs Cerundolo/Carabelli Jun 23 $264 +$459 +174%
Rafael Leão: 1+ goals Jun 17 $50 +$8 +16%
João Félix: 1+ goals Jun 17 $58 +$4 +7%
Germany vs. Curaçao: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 13 $10 +$55 +538%
Australia vs. Türkiye: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $61 +$85 +139%
Haiti vs. Scotland: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $20 +$26 +127%
Netherlands vs. Japan: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 13 $10 +$33 +322%
Haiti vs. Scotland: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 13 $21 +$51 +250%
Australia vs. Türkiye: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 13 $41 +$111 +269%
Netherlands vs. Japan: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $66 +$91 +137%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 12 $20 +$40 +197%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 12 $17 +$139 +797%
Mexico vs. South Africa: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 11 $20 +$37 +182%
Mexico vs. South Africa: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 10 $40 +$22 +54%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 10 $51 +$26 +51%
Haiti vs. Scotland: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 10 $51 +$36 +70%
Australia vs. Türkiye: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 10 $122 +$78 +64%
Brazil vs. Morocco: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 10 $152 +$89 +58%
United States vs. Paraguay: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 10 $40 +$21 +51%
Brazil vs. Morocco: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 09 $71 −$70 -98%
Brazil vs. Morocco: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 09 $41 −$40 -98%
United States vs. Paraguay: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 09 $20 −$20 -98%
United States vs. Paraguay: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 09 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Finland win Eurovision 2026? May 16 $17 −$17 -98%
Will Israel win the televote for Eurovision 2026? May 16 $20 −$20 -98%
Counter-Strike: Dripmen vs Fire Flux Esports - Map 1 Winner May 12 $36 +$1 +2%
UFC 328: Joaquin Buckley vs. Sean Brady (Welterweight, Main Card) May 10 $15 +$22 +141%
Counter-Strike: Reign Above vs Marsborne (BO3) - ESL Challenger League Apr 27 $121 −$9 -8%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Sensation (BO3) - ESL Challenger League Asia- Apr 26 $113 −$11 -9%
Will Independiente Medellín win on 2026-03-06? Apr 26 $10 +$9 +85%
Will Boyacá Chicó FC win on 2026-03-06? Apr 26 $15 −$15 -100%
Will MrBeast hit 485 million subscribers by April 30? Apr 01 $36 −$36 -100%
50m views on a MrBeast video in the first day by April 30? Mar 31 $208 −$208 -100%
Will MrBeast's next video get 110 million or more views on week 1? Mar 31 $150 −$150 -100%
Counter-Strike: SportsBetExpert vs LAG Gaming (BO3) - ESL Challenger L Mar 31 $25 −$25 -100%
Spread: Real Madrid CF Femenino (-2.5) Mar 31 $26 +$1 +4%
UAB Blazers vs. Memphis Tigers (W) Mar 23 $5 +$3 +56%
Coritiba FBC vs. Clube do Remo: O/U 2.5 Mar 23 $10 +$8 +82%
Payton Pritchard: Points O/U 17.5 Mar 23 $5 −$5 -100%
Game Handicap: PS (-2.5) vs Lupus Esports (+2.5) Mar 23 $5 −$5 -100%
John Collins: Points O/U 13.5 Mar 23 $5 −$5 -100%
Josh Hart: Rebounds O/U 7.5 Mar 23 $5 −$5 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Lionel Messi win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? BUY Yes 11¢ $103 1h
Will Robert Lewandowski join Chicago Fire? BUY Yes 95¢ $300 5h
Will Ronaldo play with Ronaldo Jr. before the end of 2026? BUY No 85¢ $261 6h
Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup? BUY Yes 65¢ $202 2d
Erling Haaland: 1+ shots BUY No 59¢ $30 2d
Set Handicap: Tsao (-1.5) vs Sema (+1.5) BUY Sema 62¢ $30 4d
ITF Taipei: Erika Sema vs Chia Yi Tsao BUY Chia Yi Tsao 58¢ $30 4d
Map Handicap: SHIM (-1.5) vs Atrix Esports (+1.5) BUY Atrix Esports 54¢ $41 5d
Counter-Strike: Atrix Esports vs shimmer (BO3) - Rainhas do Clutch FER BUY Atrix Esports 32¢ $31 5d
Lexus Eastbourne Open (Doubles): Cash/Glasspool vs Cerundolo/Carabelli BUY Cerundolo/Carabelli 31¢ $111 6d
Will Julian Alvarez join Barcelona? BUY Yes 63¢ $101 6d
Lexus Eastbourne Open (Doubles): Cash/Glasspool vs Cerundolo/Carabelli BUY Cerundolo/Carabelli 41¢ $153 6d
Zuffa Boxing 8: Trinidad vs. Ancajas (Featherweight, Main) BUY Trinidad 61¢ $25 6d
Rafael Leão: 1+ goals BUY No 86¢ $50 11d
João Félix: 1+ goals BUY No 93¢ $58 11d
Germany vs. Curaçao: 1st Half O/U 0.5 SELL Under 12¢ $66 15d
Australia vs. Türkiye: 1st Half O/U 1.5 SELL Under 69¢ $146 15d
Haiti vs. Scotland: 1st Half O/U 1.5 SELL Under 61¢ $46 15d
Netherlands vs. Japan: 1st Half O/U 0.5 SELL Under 31¢ $43 15d
Haiti vs. Scotland: 1st Half O/U 0.5 SELL Under 25¢ $72 15d
Australia vs. Türkiye: 1st Half O/U 0.5 SELL Under 32¢ $152 15d
Netherlands vs. Japan: 1st Half O/U 1.5 SELL Under 66¢ $157 15d
Mexico vs. South Africa: 1st Half O/U 2.5 SELL Under 92¢ $62 18d
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: 1st Half O/U 2.5 SELL Under 92¢ $76 18d
Haiti vs. Scotland: 1st Half O/U 2.5 SELL Under 90¢ $86 18d
Australia vs. Türkiye: 1st Half O/U 2.5 SELL Under 90¢ $199 18d
Brazil vs. Morocco: 1st Half O/U 2.5 SELL Under 90¢ $241 18d
United States vs. Paraguay: 1st Half O/U 2.5 SELL Under 92¢ $61 18d
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Under 11¢ $7 19d
Australia vs. Türkiye: 1st Half O/U 2.5 BUY Under 54¢ $71 19d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,332.46 · official $1,331.76 (match) · 112 history records