Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T19:26:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

95
0x9561…b369
crypto · 23 markets active 2h ago
0.0score
−$170 -60%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$187 · open +$17
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$41
Realized−$187
Unrealized+$17
Win rate (resolved)37%
Wins / losses7 / 12
Open positions3
Markets (closed)19 / 23
History coverage1d
Avg bet$12
Trades / day45.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit91%
Chart Positions 3 History 19 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$187
7 days−$187
14 days−$187
30 days−$187
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Yes 19¢ 46¢ $11 $27 +$16 (+145%)
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 meeting? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $7 $9 +$2 (+25%)
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 meeting? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $6 $6 −$0 (-6%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Up 13¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Up 2¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Up 3¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 12 $10 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 12 $2 −$1 -46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 12 $3 −$2 -56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 12 $5 −$4 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 12 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 12 $5 +$19 +361%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 12 $1 +$1 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 12 $4 +$3 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 12 $112 −$110 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 12 $78 −$78 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 86% −$187
other 9% +$16
economics 5% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET SELL Down 39¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET BUY Down 31¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET BUY Down 94¢ $10 1h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 19¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET SELL Up 27¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET BUY Up 25¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET BUY Up 68¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET SELL Up 1¢ $0 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET BUY Down 93¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET BUY Up 21¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET BUY Up 13¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET SELL Down 3¢ $1 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET BUY Down 6¢ $3 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET BUY Up 2¢ $1 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET SELL Up 1¢ $0 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET BUY Up 3¢ $1 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET BUY Up 3¢ $5 14h
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 me BUY Yes 1¢ $6 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET BUY Down 3¢ $0 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET BUY Down 3¢ $0 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET BUY Down 3¢ $1 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET BUY Down 3¢ $0 14h
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me BUY Yes 0¢ $7 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET BUY Down 1¢ $5 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET BUY Down 4¢ $5 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET SELL Down 31¢ $25 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET BUY Down 6¢ $5 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET SELL Down 52¢ $1 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET BUY Down 36¢ $1 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $1 15h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +32%
net ROI/market (all)-26.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 19 -19.0% -26.7% 37% 32% -79.4%
≤30d 19 -19.0% -26.7% 37% 32% -79.4%
≤90d 19 -19.0% -26.7% 37% 32% -79.4%
all 19 -19.0% -26.7% 37% 32% -79.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover45.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -26.7% 32% -79.4%
10% ← realistic here -33.7% 26% -81.4%
15% -40.1% 21% -83.2%
20% -46.0% 16% -84.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $41.30 · official $27.40 · 55 history records