Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T15:18:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

95
0x955c…990f
culture · 368 markets active 5h ago
0.0score
−$206,154 -5%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$218,589 · open +$10,444
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP culture specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$45,999
Realized−$218,589
Unrealized+$10,444
Win rate (resolved)67%
Wins / losses237 / 117
Whale WR (big bets)69%
Est. fees paid−$190
Open positions21
Markets (closed)354 / 368
History coverage280d
Avg bet$12,420
Trades / day10.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit77%
Chart Positions 21 History 354 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$11,307
7 days+$11,597
14 days+$21,015
30 days+$14,938
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ken Paxton win the Texas Republican Senate Primary runoff by 30% or more? No 98¢ 99¢ $8,297 $8,424 +$127 (+2%)
Will "The Devil Wears Prada 2" be the May film with the highest domestic gross on June 30? No 5¢ 90¢ $417 $7,796 +$7,379 (+1771%)
Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? No 99¢ 99¢ $6,998 $6,966 −$32 (-0%)
Will "Disclosure Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 47m? No 45¢ 81¢ $2,667 $4,817 +$2,150 (+81%)
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? No 89¢ 97¢ $4,044 $4,423 +$378 (+9%)
Trump declassifies new UFO files by June 15? Yes 53¢ 100¢ $1,928 $3,663 +$1,735 (+90%)
Will "Obsession" be the May film with the highest domestic gross on June 30? Yes 3¢ 88¢ $94 $2,647 +$2,553 (+2721%)
Will Ken Paxton win the Texas Republican Senate Primary runoff by between 25% and 30%? Yes 98¢ 99¢ $2,090 $2,115 +$25 (+1%)
Trump declassifies new UFO files by June 30? Yes 81¢ 100¢ $1,279 $1,587 +$309 (+24%)
Will Bahrain vs. Syria end in a draw? Yes 99¢ 100¢ $875 $884 +$9 (+1%)
Ebola case in the US by June 30? No 79¢ 83¢ $684 $715 +$31 (+5%)
Will Toy Story 5 be the top grossing movie of 2026? Yes 20¢ 26¢ $516 $671 +$154 (+30%)
Will "Masters of the Universe" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 27m and 30m? Yes 38¢ 100¢ $160 $427 +$267 (+167%)
Will "Disclosure Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 39m and 43m? Yes 17¢ 34¢ $154 $321 +$167 (+109%)
Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day be the top grossing movie of 2026? No 45¢ 54¢ $258 $306 +$49 (+19%)
Epstein client list released by June 30? No 84¢ 98¢ $86 $100 +$14 (+16%)
Will "Masters of the Universe" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 36m? No 85¢ 100¢ $68 $80 +$12 (+17%)
Will "Obsession" 4th Weekend Box Office be less than 21m? No 89¢ 100¢ $32 $36 +$4 (+13%)
Will Ken Paxton win the Texas Republican Senate Primary runoff by between 20% and 25%? Yes 11¢ 0¢ $367 $8 −$359 (-98%)
Law banning sports prediction markets enacted in 2026? Yes 15¢ 18¢ $3 $4 +$0 (+17%)
Will another outcome occur in the Texas Republican Senate Primary runoff? Yes 11¢ 0¢ $367 $2 −$366 (-100%)
Will Ken Paxton win the Texas Republican Senate Primary runoff by between 10% and 15%? Yes 11¢ 0¢ $367 $2 −$366 (-100%)
Will John Cornyn win the Texas Republican Senate Primary runoff? Yes 11¢ 0¢ $367 $2 −$366 (-100%)
Will Ken Paxton win the Texas Republican Senate Primary runoff by between 0% and 5%? Yes 11¢ 0¢ $367 $2 −$366 (-100%)
Will Ken Paxton win the Texas Republican Senate Primary runoff by between 5% and 10%? Yes 11¢ 0¢ $367 $2 −$366 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Trump declassifies new UFO files by June 30? Jun 12 $1,289 +$309 +24%
Trump declassifies new UFO files by June 15? Jun 12 $1,964 +$1,735 +88%
Will Spencer Pratt finish first in the first round of the 2026 Los Ang Jun 11 $1,701 +$295 +17%
Will "Scary Movie" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 44m and 48m? Jun 11 $8,482 +$132 +2%
Will "Scary Movie" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 48m and 52m? Jun 11 $9,887 +$3,050 +31%
Will "Scary Movie" Opening Weekend Box Office be at least 52m? Jun 11 $20,784 +$5,787 +28%
Will Equatorial Guinea vs. Comoros end in a draw? Jun 08 $1,894 +$281 +15%
Will Bahrain vs. Syria end in a draw? Jun 08 $875 +$9 +1%
Will "Masters of the Universe" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 3 Jun 05 $181 −$181 -100%
Will "Masters of the Universe" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 2 Jun 04 $160 +$267 +166%
Will "Obsession" 4th Weekend Box Office be less than 21m? Jun 04 $32 +$4 +13%
Will "Masters of the Universe" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater t Jun 04 $68 +$12 +18%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 04 $94,348 +$652 +1%
Will "Backrooms" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 73m and 79m? Jun 02 $627 −$627 -100%
Will "The Breadwinner" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 6m and 7m Jun 02 $8,647 −$7,093 -82%
Will "Backrooms" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 79m? Jun 02 $647 −$647 -100%
Will "The Breadwinner" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 4m? Jun 02 $32 +$1 +3%
Will "Obsession" 3rd Weekend Box Office be greater than 19m? Jun 02 $102 +$8 +8%
Will "The Mandalorian and Grogu" 2nd Weekend Box Office be greater tha Jun 02 $124 +$14 +11%
Will "Backrooms" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 57m and 61m? Jun 02 $1,733 +$17 +1%
Will "Backrooms" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 53m and 57m? Jun 02 $3,329 +$10 +0%
Will "Backrooms" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 49m and 53m? Jun 02 $3,547 +$12 +0%
Will "The Mandalorian and Grogu" 2nd Weekend Box Office be less than 2 Jun 02 $1,452 +$2,428 +167%
Will "Backrooms" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 49m? Jun 02 $4,300 +$6 +0%
Will "Backrooms" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 61m? Jun 02 $7,794 +$152 +2%
Will "The Breadwinner" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 4m and 5m Jun 02 $7,705 +$672 +9%
Will "The Breadwinner" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 7m? Jun 02 $40,614 +$8,681 +21%
Will Trump say "Bahrain" this week? Jun 01 $386 −$175 -45%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? Jun 01 $1,787 +$70 +4%
Epstein suicide note released by May 31? Jun 01 $4,140 +$428 +10%
Iran closes its airspace by May 24? May 30 $26 +$17 +66%
Trump declassifies new UFO files by May 15? May 29 $161 +$2,335 +1451%
Will "The Breadwinner" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 5m and 6m May 29 $1 $0 +0%
Will "Canada" or "Canadian" be said on the Lemonade Stand Podcast? May 29 $1,956 +$59 +3%
Trump kiss by May 31? May 29 $1,764 +$1,296 +74%
Will Trump say "Dumbocrat" during Bret Baier interview? May 29 $3,347 +$687 +20%
Trump re-sues WSJ by May 31? May 29 $5,219 +$313 +6%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 27 $26 −$26 -100%
Will "Michael" 4th Weekend Box Office be greater than 25m? May 27 $691 +$244 +35%
Will "The Mandalorian and Grogu" 4-day Opening Weekend Box Office be b May 27 $2,081 +$406 +20%
Will "The Mandalorian and Grogu" 4-day Opening Weekend Box Office be b May 27 $3,169 +$677 +21%
Will Trump say "Uranium" this week? May 26 $5,970 −$5,960 -100%
Will Trump say "250" or "250th" during events in Rockland County? May 25 $421 −$421 -100%
Did a crypto hedge fund blow up? May 18 $1,067 −$997 -93%
Will "Michael" 2nd Weekend Box Office be between 35m and 38m? May 13 $4,966 −$3,867 -78%
Will "Mortal Kombat 2" be the second highest grossing movie of this we May 13 $33 −$33 -100%
Will "Michael" be the second highest grossing movie of this weekend? May 13 $939 −$939 -100%
Will "Michael" 2nd Weekend Box Office be greater than 38m? May 13 $6,751 −$6,751 -100%
Will "Mortal Kombat II" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 40m and May 13 $1,715 +$160 +9%
Will "The Devil Wears Prada 2" 2nd Weekend Box Office be less than 50m May 13 $124 +$2,523 +2034%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
culture 28% −$160,528
other 26% +$3,686
politics 20% −$20,832
world 14% +$21,291
tech 6% +$10,825
crypto 2% −$342
weather 1% −$28,587
sports 1% −$24,747
economics 0% −$8,910
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Trump declassifies new UFO files by June 30? BUY Yes 81¢ $1,289 4h
Trump declassifies new UFO files by June 15? BUY Yes 51¢ $1,223 7h
Trump declassifies new UFO files by June 15? BUY Yes 55¢ $741 7h
Will "Disclosure Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 39m and 43 SELL Yes 29¢ $195 8h
Will "Disclosure Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 47m? SELL No 86¢ $106 11h
Will "Disclosure Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 47m? SELL No 86¢ $134 11h
Will "Disclosure Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 39m and 43 SELL Yes 29¢ $86 11h
Will "Toy Story 5" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 184m? BUY Yes 10¢ $0 11h
Will "The Devil Wears Prada 2" be the May film with the highest domest BUY No 95¢ $21 20h
Will Toy Story 5 be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY Yes 21¢ $13 35h
Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 45¢ $265 35h
Will Toy Story 5 be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY Yes 20¢ $524 35h
Will "Disclosure Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 39m and 43 BUY Yes 24¢ $10 35h
Will "Disclosure Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 47m? BUY No 45¢ $2,792 35h
Will "Disclosure Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 39m and 43 BUY Yes 16¢ $294 35h
Will "Disclosure Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 39m and 43 BUY Yes 24¢ $4 35h
Will "Disclosure Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 39m and 43 BUY Yes 24¢ $4 35h
Will "Disclosure Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 39m and 43 BUY Yes 24¢ $4 35h
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect BUY No 89¢ $8 3d
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect BUY No 89¢ $1,518 3d
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect BUY No 89¢ $69 3d
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect BUY No 89¢ $384 3d
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect BUY No 89¢ $765 3d
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect BUY No 89¢ $57 3d
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect BUY No 89¢ $300 3d
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect BUY No 89¢ $39 3d
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect BUY No 89¢ $392 3d
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect BUY No 89¢ $288 3d
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect BUY No 89¢ $86 3d
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect BUY No 89¢ $31 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +30%
net ROI/market (all)+6.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 +25.9% +13.9% 100% 75% +12.9%
≤30d 44 +34.3% +21.5% 77% 43% -4.2%
≤90d 127 +37.0% +24.0% 57% 32% -14.7%
all 354 +17.8% +6.6% 67% 30% -16.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover10.6 tr/day
realistic slip~14%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +6.6% 30% -16.6%
10% ← realistic here -3.6% 16% -24.6%
15% -12.9% 12% -31.9%
20% -21.4% 9% -38.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $45,999.29 · official $45,999.98 (match) · 3500 history records