Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T07:59:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
95 0x955a…3cd3 crypto 6 markets active 9d ago coverage 28d
RISKYcopy with care crypto specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$8,064 (-77%) realized −$249 · open −$7,815
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -22% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -30% what you keep after slip
Net edge-30%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate40%2W / 3L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,737per market
Trades / day2.0pace
Fees−$6est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$1,897now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days−$241
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 97% −$8,085
sports 3% +$19
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-29.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 4 -2.7% -12.0% 50% 50% -41.5%
≤90d 5 -22.2% -29.6% 40% 40% -42.3%
all 5 -22.2% -29.6% 40% 40% -42.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -29.6% 40% -42.3%
10% -36.3% 40% -47.8%
15% -42.5% 40% -52.9%
20% -48.1% 20% -57.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 82% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -36% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -22% · $-wt -36% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
9.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$110 vs −$157 · ×0.7 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.47 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

28d coverage
Net worth$1,897
Realized−$249
Unrealized−$7,815
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses2 / 3
Est. fees paid−$6
Open positions1
Markets (closed)5 / 6
History coverage28d
Avg bet$1,737
Trades / day2.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 5 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in June? Yes 10¢ 2¢ $9,712 $1,897 −$7,815 (-80%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Shenzhen Leopards vs. Zhejiang Lions May 23 $161 −$161 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET May 21 $102 +$40 +39%
Shenzhen Leopards vs. Zhejiang Lions May 21 $120 +$180 +150%
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 in May? May 19 $317 −$300 -95%
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in May? May 11 $11 −$10 -94%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in June? BUY Yes 10¢ $164 8d
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in June? BUY Yes 10¢ $296 8d
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in June? BUY Yes 10¢ $296 8d
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in June? BUY Yes 10¢ $1 8d
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in June? BUY Yes 10¢ $296 8d
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in June? BUY Yes 10¢ $296 8d
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in June? BUY Yes 10¢ $296 8d
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in June? BUY Yes 10¢ $296 8d
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in June? BUY Yes 10¢ $296 8d
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in June? BUY Yes 10¢ $296 8d
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in June? BUY Yes 10¢ $48 8d
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in June? BUY Yes 10¢ $248 8d
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in June? BUY Yes 10¢ $296 8d
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in June? BUY Yes 10¢ $296 8d
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in June? BUY Yes 10¢ $296 8d
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in June? BUY Yes 10¢ $296 8d
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in June? BUY Yes 10¢ $296 8d
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in June? BUY Yes 10¢ $296 8d
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in June? BUY Yes 10¢ $296 8d
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in June? BUY Yes 10¢ $296 8d
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in June? BUY Yes 10¢ $296 8d
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in June? BUY Yes 10¢ $503 8d
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in June? BUY Yes 10¢ $296 8d
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in June? BUY Yes 10¢ $296 8d
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in June? BUY Yes 10¢ $296 8d
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in June? BUY Yes 10¢ $296 8d
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in June? BUY Yes 10¢ $296 8d
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in June? BUY Yes 10¢ $296 8d
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in June? BUY Yes 10¢ $296 8d
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in June? BUY Yes 10¢ $2 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,896.88 · official $1,896.88 (match) · 58 history records