Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T08:37:40+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
95 0x9558…40eb other 33 markets active 2h ago coverage 479d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$1 (-0%) realized −$1 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate53%17W / 15L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$23per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit58%portable
Net worth$4now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$1
14 days−$1
30 days−$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 59% −$3
other 27% −$1
politics 5% +$3
finance 5% $0
weather 3% $0
crypto 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-13.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -0.4% -9.9% 0% 0% -9.9%
≤30d 17 -1.2% -10.6% 41% 0% -10.2%
≤90d 17 -1.2% -10.6% 41% 0% -10.2%
all 32 -4.3% -13.5% 53% 3% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.5% 3% -9.7%
10% -21.7% 0% -18.3%
15% -29.3% 0% -26.2%
20% -36.2% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 49% · top 2 62% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
94% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -7% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.43 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.8 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

479d coverage
Net worth$4
Realized−$1
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses17 / 15
Open positions1
Markets (closed)32 / 33
History coverage479d
Avg bet$23
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit58%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 32 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? No 93¢ 98¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+6%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 25 $35 $0 +0%
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? Jun 24 $35 $0 +0%
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? Jun 24 $36 −$1 -2%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 24 $35 $0 +0%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 23 $35 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 04 $4 $0 +2%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 03 $5 $0 +2%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 02 $40 −$4 -10%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? Jun 01 $39 $0 +1%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 01 $67 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? May 31 $77 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 30 $31 +$1 +3%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? May 30 $39 −$1 -1%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 30 $1 $0 -15%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? May 29 $16 $0 +2%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 28 $38 $0 -0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? May 26 $43 $0 +0%
Will Taylor Fritz win Wimbledon 2025? Dec 11 $2 $0 +2%
Will Frances Black win the Irish Presidential Election? Dec 11 $2 $0 +6%
Will Andrey Rublev win the 2025 French Open? Jun 03 $1 $0 +1%
Will Ethereum reach $2200 in April? May 07 $1 $0 +2%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the Eastern Conference? May 07 $2 $0 +1%
Will the St. Louis Blues win the 2025 Stanley Cup? May 07 $21 $0 +0%
Will Kanye launch a coin in March? Mar 27 $1 $0 -4%
Eric Adams out as NYC mayor by March 31? Mar 27 $20 $0 +0%
Will CDU/CSU, SPD, and FDP form the next German Government? Mar 26 $1 −$1 -46%
Will the highest temperature in London be 61°F or higher on March 24? Mar 26 $23 $0 +2%
Will anyone audibly fart during Digital Asset Summit? Mar 23 $1 −$1 -100%
Will another show be the top global Netflix show this week? Mar 23 $23 $0 +0%
Will “Adolescence: Limited Series” be the top global Netflix show this Mar 22 $23 $0 -0%
Will George Russell win the 2025 Chinese Grand Prix Sprint? Mar 21 $22 +$1 +3%
Will Trump's 538 approval rating be between 47.5% and 47.9% on Februar Mar 20 $20 +$3 +15%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 81¢ $35 1h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 81¢ $35 1h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL No 68¢ $29 19h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL No 68¢ $6 19h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY No 68¢ $35 19h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? SELL No 87¢ $35 24h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? BUY No 89¢ $36 26h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 91¢ $35 30h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 91¢ $35 32h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 87¢ $35 41h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 87¢ $35 41h
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? SELL No 93¢ $31 2d
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? BUY No 93¢ $35 2d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL Yes 5¢ $2 21d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL Yes 5¢ $2 21d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY Yes 5¢ $0 21d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY Yes 5¢ $1 21d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY Yes 5¢ $2 21d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? SELL Yes 3¢ $0 22d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? SELL Yes 3¢ $0 22d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? SELL Yes 3¢ $2 22d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 22d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 22d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? BUY Yes 3¢ $0 22d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 74¢ $4 22d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 74¢ $32 22d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 82¢ $40 22d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? SELL Yes 3¢ $3 23d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? BUY Yes 3¢ $0 23d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? BUY Yes 3¢ $2 23d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4.08 · official $4.08 (match) · 107 history records