Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T10:37:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
95 0x9555…0034 other 8 markets active 2h ago coverage 4d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge
Total PnL +$1 (+0%) realized +$1 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +78% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +62% what you keep after slip
Net edge+62%after slip
Net WR57%break-even
Win rate57%4W / 3L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$30per market
Trades / day1.9pace
Kalshi-fit0%portable
Net worth$45now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 100% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +57%
net ROI/market (all)+61.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +78.5% +61.5% 57% 57% -9.5%
≤30d 7 +78.5% +61.5% 57% 57% -9.5%
≤90d 7 +78.5% +61.5% 57% 57% -9.5%
all 7 +78.5% +61.5% 57% 57% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +61.5% 57% -9.5%
10% +46.1% 29% -18.2%
15% +32.0% 29% -26.1%
20% +19.0% 14% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 64% · top 2 88% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +79% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$17 vs −$23 · ×0.75 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.0 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$45
Realized+$1
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses4 / 3
Open positions1
Markets (closed)7 / 8
History coverage4d
Avg bet$30
Trades / day1.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit0%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 7 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? Yes 87¢ 86¢ $45 $45 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $40 +$5 +12%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $36 +$4 +11%
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 0 - 2 Colombia? Jun 18 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 17 $15 −$15 -98%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $50 −$50 -99%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $40 +$17 +42%
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 0 Algeria? Jun 17 $6 +$44 +786%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 87¢ $45 1h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 89¢ $40 2d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 90¢ $36 2d
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 0 - 2 Colombia? BUY Yes 18¢ $5 2d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 25¢ $15 3d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 76¢ $50 3d
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 0 Algeria? BUY Yes 11¢ $6 4d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 70¢ $40 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $44.72 · official $44.72 (match) · 12 history records