Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T21:49:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
95 0x9555…889a sports 1521 markets active 1h ago coverage 68d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 67d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$445 (-2%) realized −$471 · open +$26
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR54%break-even
Win rate55%827W / 685L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$13per market
Trades / day27.3pace
Fees−$253est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$159now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$93
7 days+$74
14 days+$29
30 days+$445
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 99% +$116
other 1% +$11
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +54%
net ROI/market (all)-10.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 182 +2.9% -6.9% 55% 55% -7.4%
≤30d 884 +1.7% -8.0% 57% 57% -6.2%
≤90d 1512 -0.9% -10.3% 55% 54% -9.0%
all 1512 -0.9% -10.3% 55% 54% -9.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover27.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -10.3% 54% -9.0%
10% ← realistic here -18.9% 54% -17.7%
15% -26.7% 51% -25.7%
20% -33.9% 43% -33.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 2% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$11 · ×0.84 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.01 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

68d coverage
Net worth$159
Realized−$471
Unrealized+$26
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses827 / 685
Est. fees paid−$253
Open positions4
Markets (closed)1512 / 1521
History coverage68d ⚠
Avg bet$13
Trades / day27.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 1512 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 9.5 Over 48¢ 66¢ $68 $96 +$27 (+40%)
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? Yes 75¢ 74¢ $30 $30 −$1 (-2%)
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? Yes 62¢ 60¢ $19 $18 −$0 (-2%)
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? Yes 51¢ 50¢ $16 $15 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 496 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 2.5 Jun 24 $21 +$10 +50%
Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar: O/U 3.5 Jun 24 $48 +$20 +41%
Cleveland Guardians vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 8.5 Jun 24 $54 −$4 -7%
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 1.5 Jun 24 $36 +$18 +49%
Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar: O/U 1.5 Jun 24 $40 +$14 +35%
Texas Rangers vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 7.5 Jun 24 $36 −$36 -98%
KBO: NC Dinos vs. Lotte Giants Jun 24 $16 +$14 +86%
KBO: Kia Tigers vs. Kiwoom Heroes Jun 24 $18 +$12 +67%
KBO: Samsung Lions vs. LG Twins Jun 24 $16 +$15 +93%
KBO: Doosan Bears vs. Hanwha Eagles Jun 24 $18 −$18 -99%
KBO: SSG Landers vs. KT Wiz Jun 24 $21 −$21 -99%
Houston Astros vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 8.5 Jun 23 $16 +$14 +86%
Houston Astros vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 9.5 Jun 23 $17 +$23 +134%
Houston Astros vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 7.5 Jun 23 $43 +$27 +63%
England vs. Ghana: O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $20 −$19 -99%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 4.5 Jun 23 $25 +$16 +62%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 3.5 Jun 23 $17 +$21 +124%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 5.5 Jun 23 $14 −$13 -98%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $27 +$13 +48%
KBO: Kia Tigers vs. Kiwoom Heroes Jun 23 $11 +$4 +34%
KBO: SSG Landers vs. KT Wiz Jun 23 $9 +$5 +57%
KBO: Doosan Bears vs. Hanwha Eagles Jun 23 $10 +$5 +46%
KBO: Samsung Lions vs. LG Twins Jun 23 $10 +$9 +90%
KBO: NC Dinos vs. Lotte Giants Jun 23 $9 −$9 -99%
Detroit Tigers vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 6.5 Jun 23 $12 −$8 -66%
Chicago Cubs vs. New York Mets: O/U 7.5 Jun 23 $12 −$9 -70%
Detroit Tigers vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 9.5 Jun 23 $6 −$6 -90%
Atlanta Braves vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 7.5 Jun 23 $10 −$10 -98%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 7.5 Jun 23 $12 −$12 -100%
Cleveland Guardians vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 7.5 Jun 23 $11 +$9 +86%
New York Yankees vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 7.5 Jun 23 $12 +$9 +73%
Boston Red Sox vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 13.5 Jun 22 $39 −$39 -98%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $28 +$13 +46%
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 2.5 Jun 22 $15 −$14 -98%
Prado vs. Evans: Match O/U 21.5 Jun 22 $21 +$21 +101%
Brancaccio vs. Gea: Match O/U 21.5 Jun 22 $20 −$20 -99%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 7.5 Jun 22 $27 −$27 -99%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 7.5 Jun 22 $30 −$30 -99%
Texas Rangers vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 7.5 Jun 22 $23 −$23 -99%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 7.5 Jun 22 $12 −$12 -99%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 7.5 Jun 22 $14 −$14 -99%
Houston Astros vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 7.5 Jun 22 $10 −$10 -98%
Kansas City Royals vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 7.5 Jun 22 $10 −$10 -98%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 12.5 Jun 21 $27 +$34 +124%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 11.5 Jun 21 $39 +$33 +86%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Athletics: O/U 12.5 Jun 21 $56 +$37 +65%
Chicago White Sox vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 8.5 Jun 21 $11 +$10 +93%
Chicago White Sox vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 7.5 Jun 21 $12 +$8 +67%
Chicago White Sox vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 6.5 Jun 21 $14 +$6 +42%
San Diego Padres vs. Texas Rangers: O/U 6.5 Jun 21 $13 +$8 +65%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Czechia vs. Mexico: O/U 1.5 AND Scotland vs. Brazil: O/U 1.5 AND Moroc BUY 20¢ $33 38m
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 51¢ $16 44m
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 62¢ $19 45m
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 75¢ $30 45m
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $31 49m
Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 100¢ $68 50m
Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 70¢ $48 1h
Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 9.5 BUY Over 51¢ $26 1h
Cleveland Guardians vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 8.5 SELL Over 45¢ $50 1h
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 66¢ $21 1h
Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 9.5 BUY Over 53¢ $27 1h
Cleveland Guardians vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 8.5 BUY Over 47¢ $20 1h
Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 9.5 BUY Over 37¢ $16 1h
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 99¢ $54 1h
Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $53 1h
Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 72¢ $10 2h
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 62¢ $9 2h
Cleveland Guardians vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 8.5 BUY Over 47¢ $19 2h
Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 74¢ $30 2h
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 67¢ $27 2h
Cleveland Guardians vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 8.5 BUY Over 47¢ $15 2h
Texas Rangers vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 7.5 BUY Over 50¢ $26 5h
Texas Rangers vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 7.5 BUY Over 50¢ $10 5h
KBO: NC Dinos vs. Lotte Giants BUY Lotte Giants 53¢ $16 13h
KBO: Samsung Lions vs. LG Twins BUY LG Twins 51¢ $16 13h
KBO: Doosan Bears vs. Hanwha Eagles BUY Hanwha Eagles 58¢ $18 13h
KBO: Kia Tigers vs. Kiwoom Heroes BUY Kia Tigers 59¢ $18 13h
KBO: SSG Landers vs. KT Wiz BUY KT Wiz 70¢ $21 14h
Houston Astros vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 9.5 BUY Over 42¢ $17 26h
Houston Astros vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 8.5 BUY Over 53¢ $16 26h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $159.28 · official $191.41 · 3500 history records