Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T05:42:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
95 0x9553…3f13 other 31 markets active 0h ago coverage 2d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable ⚠ High turnover
✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$91 (+13%) realized +$82 · open +$9
Gross ROI / mkt -29% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -45% what you keep after slip
Net edge-45%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate37%11W / 19L
Drawdown46%max
Avg bet$22per market
Trades / day30.3pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit39%portable
Net worth$34now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 68% +$12
sports 20% +$140
crypto 11% −$48
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-35.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 30 -29.0% -35.8% 37% 33% +3.7%
≤30d 30 -29.0% -35.8% 37% 33% +3.7%
≤90d 30 -29.0% -35.8% 37% 33% +3.7%
all 30 -29.0% -35.8% 37% 33% +3.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover30.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -35.8% 33% +3.7%
10% ← realistic here -41.9% 27% -6.3%
15% -47.5% 20% -15.3%
20% -52.7% 17% -23.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 38% · top 2 49% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +15% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
9% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -29% · $-wt +15% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -15% → late -43% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$22 vs −$8 · ×2.84 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.64 per $1 lost it wins $1.64
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$34
Realized+$82
Unrealized+$9
Win rate (resolved)37%
Wins / losses11 / 19
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions1
Markets (closed)30 / 31
History coverage2d
Avg bet$22
Trades / day30.3
Drawdown46%
Kalshi-fit39%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 30 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? Yes 11¢ $25 $34 +$9 (+35%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Jun 17 $10 +$18 +179%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 17 $27 −$27 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 17 $25 −$25 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 17 $25 +$4 +18%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 AND Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $20 +$28 +136%
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 2 Norway? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 1 Norway? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Exact Score: Iraq 0 - 3 Norway? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Exact Score: Iraq 0 - 2 Norway? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Exact Score: Iraq 0 - 1 Norway? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -93%
Iraq vs. Norway: Draw at halftime? Jun 16 $5 −$4 -85%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $25 +$26 +103%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $20 −$12 -57%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $61 −$31 -50%
Exact Score: Belgium 0 - 2 Egypt? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $7 −$3 -38%
Exact Score: Belgium 0 - 1 Egypt? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $46 +$20 +44%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 15 $5 +$1 +25%
Egypt leading at halftime? Jun 15 $100 +$13 +13%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $76 +$92 +122%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 5.5 Jun 15 $5 −$3 -58%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 1.5 AND Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $10 +$14 +134%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $70 +$21 +29%
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 0 - 0 Ecuador? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $70 +$5 +7%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes $1 0m
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 12¢ $10 2m
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes $2 7m
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes $2 7m
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 12¢ $10 24m
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? SELL Yes 35¢ $29 26m
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? BUY Yes 12¢ $10 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET BUY Up 72¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET BUY Down $27 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET BUY Down 84¢ $25 1h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 AND Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY 42¢ $20 5h
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes $0 6h
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes $1 6h
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? BUY Yes 10¢ $1 6h
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes $1 6h
Iraq vs. Norway: Draw at halftime? SELL Yes $1 6h
Iraq vs. Norway: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 13¢ $5 6h
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 2 Norway? BUY Yes 25¢ $1 7h
Exact Score: Iraq 0 - 3 Norway? BUY Yes $1 7h
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 1 Norway? BUY Yes 13¢ $1 7h
Exact Score: Iraq 0 - 2 Norway? BUY Yes $1 7h
Exact Score: Iraq 0 - 1 Norway? BUY Yes $1 7h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $52 8h
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 17¢ $5 9h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 50¢ $5 9h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 48¢ $20 10h
Exact Score: Belgium 0 - 1 Egypt? SELL Yes $0 33h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 40¢ $5 33h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 29¢ $5 33h
Exact Score: Belgium 0 - 2 Egypt? BUY Yes 10¢ $5 33h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $33.77 · official $33.77 (match) · 84 history records