Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T11:20:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
95 0x9553…af91 other 180 markets active 1h ago coverage 134d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)
Total PnL +$2,132 (+1%) realized +$2,132 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR9%break-even
Win rate17%30W / 149L
Whale WR2%big bets
Drawdown22%max
Avg bet$1,581per market
Trades / day3.6pace
Fees−$41est.
Kalshi-fit65%portable
Net worth$181now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$13
7 days−$33
14 days+$103
30 days−$133
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 41% +$351
politics 40% −$137
sports 11% +$1,851
economics 4% −$13
world 3% −$10
culture 2% −$7
tech 0% −$2
crypto 0% −$9
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +9%
net ROI/market (all)-5.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 60 +1.7% -7.9% 10% 7% -9.6%
≤90d 129 -7.3% -16.2% 6% 4% -9.1%
all 179 +4.4% -5.6% 17% 9% -8.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.6 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -5.6% 9% -8.9%
10% -14.6% 9% -17.6%
15% -22.9% 9% -25.6%
20% -30.4% 8% -32.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 58% · top 2 69% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
47% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 2% (≥$2,269) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +8% → late +1% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$105 vs −$8 · ×13.73 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.8 per $1 lost it wins $2.8
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

134d coverage
Net worth$181
Realized+$2,132
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)17%
Wins / losses30 / 149
Whale WR (big bets)2%
Est. fees paid−$41
Open positions1
Markets (closed)179 / 180
History coverage134d
Avg bet$1,581
Trades / day3.6
Drawdown22%
Kalshi-fit65%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 179 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in June? No 99¢ 99¢ $181 $181 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 15 $3,039 −$3 -0%
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 15 $3,173 −$5 -0%
Will Star Wars: The Mandalorian and Grogu be the top grossing movie of Jun 14 $1,018 −$1 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 13 $2,929 −$4 -0%
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 12 $2,538 −$4 -0%
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 12 $3,611 −$4 -0%
Will Aston Martin be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 11 $2,309 −$3 -0%
Will Wuthering Heights be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 11 $1,024 −$2 -0%
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $3,870 −$4 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 10 $1,007 −$2 -0%
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 09 $1,209 −$2 -0%
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 08 $2,095 −$3 -0%
Will Jumanji 3 be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 08 $1,144 −$2 -0%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs BIG (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $60 +$66 +109%
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 06 $3,824 −$6 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 05 $899 −$1 -0%
San Francisco Giants vs. Milwaukee Brewers Jun 05 $44 +$64 +146%
Will the St. Louis Cardinals win the 2026 World Series? Jun 04 $1,696 −$3 -0%
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 03 $863 −$1 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 03 $4,408 −$5 -0%
Cleveland Guardians vs. New York Yankees Jun 03 $43 +$89 +206%
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 02 $1,830 −$3 -0%
Spread: Texas Rangers (-1.5) Jun 02 $59 −$59 -100%
Will Ethereum reach $2,600 in May? Jun 02 $66 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 in May? Jun 02 $416 $0 +0%
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 01 $4,252 −$5 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 01 $586 −$1 -0%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 31 $1,732 −$2 -0%
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? May 30 $620 −$1 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 30 $1,665 −$2 -0%
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 30 $1,890 −$3 -0%
Will 7 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 29 $583 −$1 -0%
Will Scream 7 be the top grossing movie of 2026? May 29 $1,547 −$2 -0%
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? May 29 $502 −$1 -0%
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 28 $502 −$1 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 27 $1,582 −$3 -0%
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? May 27 $4,512 −$7 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 26 $3,805 −$4 -0%
Will Graham Platner win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 26 $599 −$1 -0%
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 25 $1,362 −$2 -0%
Minnesota Twins vs. Boston Red Sox May 25 $66 −$66 -100%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 24 $1,851 −$3 -0%
Will Ayelet Shaked be the next Prime Minister of Israel? May 24 $635 −$1 -0%
Will RCD Mallorca win on 2026-05-23? May 24 $54 −$54 -100%
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 23 $1,040 −$2 -0%
Spread: Spurs (-1.5) May 23 $66 −$66 -100%
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 22 $5,079 −$6 -0%
Will Amir Ohana be the next Prime Minister of Israel? May 22 $1,009 −$1 -0%
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Aurora (BO3) - DreamLeague Playoffs May 22 $42 +$21 +50%
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 21 $2,256 −$3 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $1,016 1h
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $1,017 4h
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $1,012 4h
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $1,014 9h
Will Star Wars: The Mandalorian and Grogu be the top grossing movie of SELL No 100¢ $1,017 21h
Will Star Wars: The Mandalorian and Grogu be the top grossing movie of BUY No 100¢ $1,018 29h
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,014 42h
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,016 2d
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $915 2d
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $916 3d
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $921 3d
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $923 3d
Will Aston Martin be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 99¢ $1,021 4d
Will Aston Martin be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $1,022 4d
Will Wuthering Heights be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $1,022 4d
Will Wuthering Heights be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $1,024 4d
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $1,028 4d
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $1,029 4d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $1,005 5d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $1,007 5d
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $1,025 6d
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $1,027 6d
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in June? BUY No 99¢ $181 6d
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,207 6d
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,209 6d
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,207 7d
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,209 7d
Will Jumanji 3 be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $1,142 7d
Will Jumanji 3 be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $1,144 7d
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $846 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $180.97 · official $180.97 (match) · 595 history records