Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T05:33:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
95 0x9551…ca44 weather 78 markets active 2h ago coverage 4d
BOTnot copyable weather specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (56 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$918 (-18%) realized −$918 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -16% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -35% what you keep after slip
Net edge-35%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate5%4W / 74L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$67per market
Trades / day55.6pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 100% −$1,038
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (56 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-23.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 78 -15.5% -23.6% 5% 0% -27.5%
≤30d 78 -15.5% -23.6% 5% 0% -27.5%
≤90d 78 -15.5% -23.6% 5% 0% -27.5%
all 78 -15.5% -23.6% 5% 0% -27.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover55.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -23.6% 0% -27.5%
10% ← realistic here -30.9% 0% -34.4%
15% -37.5% 0% -40.8%
20% -43.7% 0% -46.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 85% · top 2 97% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -20% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -16% · $-wt -20% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -16% → late -15% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$14 · ×0.01 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.0 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$918
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)5%
Wins / losses4 / 74
Open positions0
Markets (closed)78 / 78
History coverage4d
Avg bet$67
Trades / day55.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 78 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 33°C on June 25? Jun 24 $60 −$9 -15%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 30°C on June 25? Jun 24 $62 −$23 -36%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 25? Jun 24 $59 −$8 -13%
Will the highest temperature in London be 36°C on June 24? Jun 24 $54 −$1 -2%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 25? Jun 24 $144 −$42 -29%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 29°C on June 24? Jun 24 $17 $0 -1%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on June 24? Jun 24 $3 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in London be 35°C or below on June 24? Jun 23 $8 −$1 -12%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 25? Jun 23 $27 −$2 -6%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on June 24? Jun 23 $18 −$1 -4%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F on Ju Jun 23 $1 $0 -5%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 32°C or higher on June 24? Jun 23 $8 $0 -4%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on June 24? Jun 23 $14 −$1 -5%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 21°C on June 25? Jun 23 $21 −$2 -9%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 32°C on June 25? Jun 23 $32 −$4 -12%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 34°C on June 25? Jun 23 $22 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 20°C on June 25? Jun 23 $26 −$4 -17%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 30°C on June 25? Jun 23 $31 −$7 -23%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 24? Jun 23 $10 $0 -3%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on June Jun 23 $46 −$4 -10%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 21°C on June 23? Jun 23 $44 −$44 -100%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 68-69°F on Jun Jun 23 $114 −$48 -42%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 30°C on June 24? Jun 23 $151 −$15 -10%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on June 23? Jun 23 $195 −$12 -6%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 40°C on June 23? Jun 23 $14 −$1 -9%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on June 25? Jun 23 $18 −$1 -4%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 74-75°F on June 24? Jun 23 $72 −$12 -17%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 24? Jun 23 $309 −$73 -24%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 84-85°F on June 23? Jun 23 $228 −$23 -10%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 88-89°F on June 23? Jun 23 $264 −$72 -27%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 27°C on June 24? Jun 23 $7 $0 -3%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 23? Jun 22 $102 −$24 -24%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 90-91°F on June 23? Jun 22 $14 −$6 -41%
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 19°C on June 23? Jun 22 $19 −$1 -4%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on June 24? Jun 22 $17 −$9 -55%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 24? Jun 22 $8 +$1 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 32°C on June 23? Jun 22 $85 −$4 -5%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 23? Jun 22 $77 −$2 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 41°C on June 24? Jun 22 $106 −$8 -7%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 39°C on June 23? Jun 22 $111 −$4 -4%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on June 23? Jun 22 $7 $0 -6%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 27°C on June 24? Jun 22 $3 $0 -1%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on June 24? Jun 22 $121 −$20 -17%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on Ju Jun 22 $6 $0 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 20°C or below on June 22? Jun 22 $71 −$2 -3%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on June Jun 22 $102 −$11 -11%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 22? Jun 22 $78 −$3 -4%
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 20°C on June 22? Jun 22 $16 −$6 -38%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on June 22? Jun 22 $294 −$73 -25%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on June 22? Jun 22 $233 −$76 -33%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 33°C on June 25? SELL No 52¢ $51 1h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 33°C on June 25? BUY No 60¢ $60 1h
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 30°C on June 25? SELL Yes 41¢ $39 1h
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 30°C on June 25? BUY Yes 62¢ $62 1h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 25? SELL No 53¢ $51 2h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 25? BUY No 59¢ $59 2h
Will the highest temperature in London be 36°C on June 24? SELL Yes 27¢ $26 3h
Will the highest temperature in London be 36°C on June 24? BUY Yes 26¢ $26 3h
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 25? SELL Yes 30¢ $29 3h
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 25? BUY Yes 42¢ $42 3h
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 29°C on June 24? SELL No 60¢ $17 4h
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 29°C on June 24? BUY No 60¢ $17 4h
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 25? SELL Yes 44¢ $43 4h
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 25? BUY Yes 47¢ $47 4h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on June 24? SELL No 78¢ $3 5h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on June 24? BUY No 77¢ $3 5h
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 25? SELL No 44¢ $13 6h
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 25? BUY No 65¢ $20 6h
Will the highest temperature in London be 35°C or below on June 24? SELL No 23¢ $7 7h
Will the highest temperature in London be 35°C or below on June 24? BUY No 25¢ $8 7h
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 25? SELL No 68¢ $20 8h
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 25? BUY No 70¢ $21 8h
Will the highest temperature in London be 36°C on June 24? SELL No 80¢ $28 9h
Will the highest temperature in London be 36°C on June 24? BUY No 81¢ $28 9h
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on June 24? SELL No 51¢ $17 12h
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on June 24? BUY No 52¢ $18 12h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F on Ju SELL No 74¢ $1 13h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F on Ju BUY No 76¢ $1 13h
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 32°C or higher on June 24? SELL No 74¢ $7 14h
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 32°C or higher on June 24? BUY No 76¢ $8 14h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 219 history records