Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T01:27:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
95 0x954e…850f crypto 105 markets active 2h ago coverage 154d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$2,396 (-7%) realized −$2,394 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR22%break-even
Win rate71%73W / 30L
Whale WR67%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$332per market
Trades / day3.2pace
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$305now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$18
7 days+$130
14 days+$130
30 days+$211
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 55% −$2,055
finance 22% −$189
crypto 11% −$325
other 7% +$127
tech 4% +$109
politics 1% −$84
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +22%
net ROI/market (all)-12.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +33.0% +20.3% 100% 40% +1.8%
≤30d 8 +20.6% +9.1% 88% 50% +2.6%
≤90d 28 +7.2% -3.0% 71% 36% -23.3%
all 103 -3.6% -12.8% 71% 22% -15.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.8% 22% -15.8%
10% -21.1% 12% -23.9%
15% -28.7% 7% -31.3%
20% -35.7% 5% -38.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 24% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -15% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
68% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 67% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -6% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$26 vs −$149 · ×0.18 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.44 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

154d coverage
Net worth$305
Realized−$2,394
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)71%
Wins / losses73 / 30
Whale WR (big bets)67%
Open positions2
Markets (closed)103 / 105
History coverage154d
Avg bet$332
Trades / day3.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 103 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $95 in June? No 94¢ 93¢ $188 $186 −$2 (-1%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 20¢ 20¢ $118 $118 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June Jun 20 $183 +$3 +2%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in June? Jun 20 $228 +$14 +6%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $75 in June? Jun 17 $46 +$44 +96%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $33 +$17 +52%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in June? Jun 15 $552 +$51 +9%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in May? May 29 $426 +$94 +22%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7? May 27 $55 −$20 -36%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $115 in May? May 24 $47 +$6 +14%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 3 May 20 $353 +$84 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET May 03 $52 −$22 -42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET May 03 $31 +$24 +78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET May 03 $5 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET May 03 $5 $0 +0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $110 in April? Apr 22 $646 −$334 -52%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in April? Apr 22 $209 +$178 +85%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in April? Apr 08 $1,398 −$452 -32%
Iran leadership change by April 30? Apr 06 $331 $0 +0%
Will Trump say "Hormuz" during Address to the Nation? Apr 02 $160 +$40 +25%
Will Trump say "Oil" or "Gas" 3+ times during Address to the Nation? Apr 02 $158 +$2 +1%
Will Trump say "NATO" during Address to the Nation? Apr 02 $273 +$6 +2%
Iran leadership change by March 31? Apr 01 $929 +$10 +1%
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026? Mar 30 $2,009 −$1,924 -96%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $105 by end of March? Mar 30 $891 +$37 +4%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of March? Mar 30 $1,527 −$6 -0%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of March? Mar 30 $693 +$200 +29%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of June? Mar 27 $426 −$44 -10%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of March? Mar 25 $406 +$24 +6%
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 Mar 23 $696 +$21 +3%
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be the next Supreme Leader of Iran? Mar 09 $577 +$118 +20%
Will Alireza Arafi be the next Supreme Leader of Iran? Mar 03 $3,037 −$797 -26%
Will Hassan Khomeini be the next Supreme Leader of Iran? Mar 02 $67 +$2 +4%
Will the position of Supreme Leader of Iran be abolished? Mar 01 $374 −$5 -1%
Will US or Israel strike Iran first? Mar 01 $6,424 +$267 +4%
Khamenei seen in public by February 28? Feb 28 $1,176 +$115 +10%
US strikes Iran by February 27, 2026? Feb 28 $848 +$138 +16%
US strikes Iran by February 24, 2026? Feb 25 $1,317 +$26 +2%
US strikes Iran by February 22, 2026? Feb 23 $1,212 +$105 +9%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on March Feb 22 $170 +$1 +1%
US strikes Iran by February 23, 2026? Feb 22 $133 +$5 +4%
US strikes Iran by February 21, 2026? Feb 22 $731 +$23 +3%
US strikes Iran by February 20, 2026? Feb 21 $192 +$6 +3%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30? Feb 21 $95 −$16 -16%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31? Feb 21 $60 −$6 -10%
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? Feb 20 $1,075 −$3 -0%
US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026? Feb 20 $46 $0 +0%
US strike on Mexico by March 31? Feb 18 $45 +$2 +3%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28? Feb 18 $52 $0 -0%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran in 2026? Feb 17 $29 −$1 -4%
US strikes Iran by June 30, 2026? Feb 17 $18 −$2 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 11, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET Feb 14 $12 −$12 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June SELL Yes 99¢ $148 1h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 20¢ $121 2h
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in June? SELL No 99¢ $242 2h
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $95 in June? BUY No 94¢ $188 4d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $75 in June? BUY Yes 51¢ $21 5d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $75 in June? BUY Yes 51¢ $5 5d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $75 in June? BUY Yes 51¢ $20 5d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in June? SELL No 99¢ $153 5d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 66¢ $33 6d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in June? BUY No 93¢ $6 6d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in June? BUY No 93¢ $133 6d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in June? BUY No 93¢ $37 6d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in June? BUY No 93¢ $14 6d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in June? BUY No 93¢ $38 6d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June BUY Yes 96¢ $41 6d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June BUY Yes 96¢ $37 6d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June BUY Yes 96¢ $1 7d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June BUY Yes 96¢ $32 7d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June BUY Yes 96¢ $32 7d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in June? SELL No 97¢ $450 7d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in June? BUY No 89¢ $494 20d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in June? BUY No 89¢ $44 20d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in June? BUY No 89¢ $13 20d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7? SELL Yes 54¢ $27 24d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7? SELL Yes 54¢ $3 24d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7? SELL Yes 54¢ $6 24d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7? BUY Yes 84¢ $55 28d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $115 in May? SELL No 89¢ $53 28d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $115 in May? BUY No 78¢ $47 28d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June SELL Yes 89¢ $6 28d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $304.60 · official $304.60 (match) · 570 history records