Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T19:06:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
95 0x954e…0a44 sports 17 markets active 2h ago coverage 208d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$116 (-7%) realized −$233 · open +$117
Gross ROI / mkt -14% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate50%8W / 8L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$103per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$13est.
Kalshi-fit71%portable
Net worth$195now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$179
7 days+$179
14 days−$55
30 days−$55
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 75% −$46
other 25% +$39
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-22.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +26.7% +14.6% 67% 67% +30.8%
≤30d 9 -32.2% -38.6% 33% 33% -15.5%
≤90d 9 -32.2% -38.6% 33% 33% -15.5%
all 16 -14.5% -22.7% 50% 44% -16.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -22.7% 44% -16.3%
10% -30.1% 31% -24.3%
15% -36.8% 31% -31.6%
20% -43.0% 31% -38.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 38% · top 2 60% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
12% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -15% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late -24% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$66 vs −$81 · ×0.81 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.81 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

208d coverage
Net worth$195
Realized−$233
Unrealized+$117
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses8 / 8
Est. fees paid−$13
Open positions1
Markets (closed)16 / 17
History coverage208d
Avg bet$103
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 16 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 3 Winner Team Falcons 40¢ 100¢ $78 $195 +$117 (+150%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner Jun 21 $102 −$95 -93%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 21 $101 +$73 +72%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner Jun 21 $199 +$201 +101%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $40 −$39 -99%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 12 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $88 +$115 +130%
Will Mexico vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 11 $102 −$100 -98%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 08 $102 −$100 -98%
Thunder vs. Warriors Dec 08 $361 −$188 -52%
Grizzlies vs. Spurs Dec 03 $20 −$19 -97%
Knicks vs. Celtics Dec 03 $20 +$18 +92%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from November 25 to December 2, 202 Dec 02 $166 +$23 +14%
Mavericks vs. Nuggets Dec 02 $102 +$83 +81%
Pelicans vs. Lakers Dec 01 $80 +$2 +3%
Nothing Ever Happens: November Dec 01 $69 +$11 +16%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 3 Winner BUY Team Falcons 40¢ $79 1h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner SELL FURIA $7 2h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner BUY FURIA 45¢ $102 2h
Spread: Spain (-2.5) SELL Spain 96¢ $174 2h
Spread: Spain (-2.5) SELL Spain 96¢ $1 2h
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Spain 55¢ $101 3h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner SELL Team Falcons 100¢ $400 3h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner BUY Team Falcons 49¢ $199 4h
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 73¢ $40 7d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes $10 7d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 17¢ $102 9d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 94¢ $203 9d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 40¢ $88 9d
Will Mexico vs. South Africa end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $102 10d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 22¢ $102 13d
Thunder vs. Warriors BUY Warriors 21¢ $173 200d
Thunder vs. Warriors SELL Thunder 84¢ $173 200d
Thunder vs. Warriors BUY Thunder 91¢ $188 200d
Grizzlies vs. Spurs SELL Grizzlies $1 200d
Grizzlies vs. Spurs BUY Grizzlies 33¢ $20 200d
Knicks vs. Celtics SELL Celtics 73¢ $38 200d
Knicks vs. Celtics BUY Celtics 38¢ $20 200d
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from November 25 to December 2, 202 SELL No 100¢ $189 201d
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from November 25 to December 2, 202 BUY No 87¢ $166 201d
Mavericks vs. Nuggets SELL Mavericks 100¢ $95 201d
Mavericks vs. Nuggets BUY Mavericks 21¢ $20 201d
Mavericks vs. Nuggets SELL Nuggets 91¢ $90 201d
Mavericks vs. Nuggets BUY Nuggets 83¢ $82 201d
Pelicans vs. Lakers SELL Lakers 100¢ $82 202d
Pelicans vs. Lakers BUY Lakers 97¢ $80 202d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $194.90 · official $194.90 (match) · 33 history records